Roger Arrieta
With Masahiro Tanaka heading to New York on a 7 year/$155 million pact, David Price likely costing the Dodgers too many prospects in a potential trade, and Chad Billingsley coming off Tommy John surgery, the Dodgers are left with a vacancy in their rotation. Do they look at in-house candidates or sign one of the last few free agent pitchers? Let’s take a look at the remaining free agent starters:
Matt Garza:
Perhaps the best free agent pitcher left, the 30 year old California native is a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. He enjoyed success with the Rays from 2008-10 with a decent 3.86 ERA including a no-hitter. However, he’s become increasingly injury prone throughout his career with trips to the DL in each of the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers don’t want to spend money on a pitcher that could potentially require multiple DL stints or possibly wear out down the stretch. His defense for his position is also questionable with a fielding % of .894 over his career. The Dodgers are accustomed to good fielding pitchers so it’s just another factor to consider.
Last season he pitched well for the Cubs after not throwing in a game since July 21st of the previous season due to elbow problems and then a strained lat. In 11 starts, he went 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Due to that success, he was a big target at last year’s trade deadline. He was eventually traded to the Rangers in hopes that he could lead their staff and put up ace-like numbers. He didn’t perform up to expectations at all. In 13 starts with Texas, he compiled a 4-5 record with a 4.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, both above his career averages.
Simply put, Garza is a decent option but may not be the consistent, trustworthy, and durable back end starter the Dodgers are looking to sign. He’s never had a full season ERA under 3.30 and is a career .500 pitcher.
With the bigger names off the market, Garza would likely require a multi-year contract paying over $15 million per year. The risk and cost don’t seem to outweigh the reward.
Bronson Arroyo:
The 36 year old Arroyo is what he is. He lacks upside and doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts. Outside of his best year in 2006 when he had a 3.29 ERA, it’s never been below 3.74.
One thing he has going for him, though, is incredible consistency. He’s appeared in 32 or more games in every season since 2004, tallying 10 wins in all but 2 of those (the 2 exceptions were 9 win seasons).
The savvy veteran has been a durable and reliable innings eater that fits in at the back end of their rotation. His veteran presence and good attitude would also do well in the Dodgers’ clubhouse. $10-13 million on a 1 year deal seems likely if the Dodgers choose to sign him.
Other free agents:
Behind Matt Garza and Bronson Arroyo there aren’t many other options on the free agent market. Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are both tied to draft pick compensation and would surely require multi-year contracts paying $15-18 million per year. Both have been highly inconsistent throughout their careers so neither seems like a good choice. A.J. Burnett has stated that he will either retire or re-sign with the Pirates for one more year. The rest of the free agents such as Paul Maholm, Jason Hammel, Jerome Williams, or Tommy Hanson are simply not good enough for the Dodgers to sign them over choosing an in-house option.
My prediction:
I believe they’ll either end up signing Bronson Arroyo to a 1 year contract, or choose an in-house option to fill the vacancy until Chad Billingsley is fully recovered. Spending extra money isn’t necessary when there are limited options in the free agent pool. The Dodgers have up and coming young arms that will be getting a chance soon, so a short term stop-gap is the best choice.
