Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts have a problem. Granted, it’s a good problem, but it’s a problem nevertheless. In a nutshell, here’s the issue: they’ve got three elite pitchers on their hands, and nobody has any idea what to expect from them in the postseason.
In a way, that’s true for every pitcher on the staff: October baseball is a different animal, and many a pitcher have melted down when the lights shone the brightest. However, we kinda have an idea on a lot of guys in the Dodgers’ stable. It would be very surprising if, for example, Evan Phillips or Julio Urias were to suddenly get lit up in a playoff game. Their track record in 2022 is just too good for that to happen. Similarly, you’d expect Clayton Kershaw to be solid, given his impressive stats the last month of the season. One could say the same thing about Alex Vesia, Chris Martin, and Tyler Anderson, too. They’ve all been pretty steady throughout the year.
However, three names on the list of potential pitchers for the postseason roster stand out in that we can make no such claims about their expected postseason performance: Blake Treinen, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May. Let’s look at each of them, and at least try to guess what their role may be going forward.
Blake Treinen (2022: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA)
Blake is the biggest wild card in this deck. We really have no idea how much he can go, or if he can even go at all. After coming back from an arm injury in May, Treinen only got into two ball games before returning to the IL. He pitched two innings in early September, giving up no earned runs, no hits, and just walking one guy. It looked like he was a lock to be a big contributor in October. Now, I’m not so sure. His bullpens and sim games have been going well, what Andrew Friedman termed “positive steps” when he met the media last Friday. However, whether or not he’ll be ready for the NLDS is anybody’s guess. The smart play might be to leave him off the roster and give him another week of rehab before activating him. We’ll see how Friedman et al decide to play it.
Tony Gonsolin (2022: 16-1, 2.14 ERA)
Tony Gonsolin is the only one of this trio that in my mind is a lock for the NLDS roster. And, he’ll definitely be used if the Dodgers don’t sweep. (I figure it’s Urias, Kershaw, Anderson in Games 1-3). However, after his injury in August lingered a lot longer than anyone expected, Gonsolin didn’t have an opportunity to get himself fully built back up before the regular season ended. He looked okay in his first outing off of the IL: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER. However, his command wasn’t nearly as sharp as we’re used to seeing. Hopefully, these extra ten days or so will give Gonsolin time to work on his mechanics before a start in the NLDS. When he does start, Dave Roberts had better have a bullpen full of guys ready to fire if things go wrong.
Dustin May (2022: 30.0 IP, 4.50 ERA)
Dustin May is a big question mark in everyone’s mind. Which Dustin are we going to see? Are we going to see the guy who pitched five no-hit innings against the Giants in mid-September? Or do we get the guy who got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Padres in the previous start. Is it going to be the May whose nasty stuff leaves hitters begging for mercy? Or the May who needs to hire a private detective to find the plate? Your guess is as good as mine. Best case scenario is that the Dodgers get a big lead in one of these games, and Dave Roberts will have the luxury to put May in and see where he’s at before it really matters.
Because in the postseason, every inning’s going to matter. A lot. If these guys are on, it could be a long and deep run. If they’re not, they could end up doing more harm than good.
