Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Well, now the Dodgers are in quite a pickle. I was kind of hoping that Tyler Anderson would accept the qualifying offer that the Dodgers made to him this week. But now with news on Wednesday that the lefty starter had parlayed his career year into a three-year deal with the Angels (good luck with that, TA), the Dodgers find themselves with a severely depleted rotation. Let’s take a look at where we stand after this initial flurry of activity is over.
Right now, the Dodgers have five starters under contract: Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Julio Urias. One starter, Buehler, is of course unavailable due to Tommy John surgery. May and Gonsolin turned out to be non-factors late in the season, but I would expect them to return to form by Opening Day, putting their injuries in the rearview mirror by another five months. Urias will continue to thrive and is entering the prime of his career. And, the newly re-signed Kershaw figures to be good for another solid season, even though he’s on the downslope of his career.
Still, that’s only four guys. And with Kershaw’s back likely to give out on him a time or two during 2023, you’d like to have more depth than even five starters to start the year. So, what exactly are the Dodgers’ options both internally and on the free agent market?
Farmhands will fill holes, but not ready
There is the possibility of elevating one of the Dodgers’ current pitching prospects to the big league level, but there is not a lot there that gives me hope for 2023. Ryan Pepiot showed moments of quality in his time with the big club, but his control wasn’t nearly as consistent as it needs to be to pitch for a long time in the National League. Likewise, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson showed occasionally that they could handle major league hitters, but not sure either of them is going to be a dependable arm next season.
Guys who didn’t make it to the show in 2022, but still might figure in 2023 include Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and Landon Knack, all of whom are rated high on the list of Dodger prospects. Is there a Spencer Strider waiting among them who could take the league by storm next year? The flamethrower Miller seems to be the leading candidate, but his time in triple-A last year wasn’t as dominant as one might have hoped, and he doesn’t figure to make the Opening Day roster this year, either. So there’s definite talent down on the farm, but not sure if any of it is ready to shine at Chavez Ravine quite yet.
Free Agents
The most likely way for the Dodgers to fill Buehler’s spot in the rotation next year is for Andrew Friedman to break out his wallet and spend some money on the free agent market. The first option available might be to re-sign Andrew Heaney, who had something of a resurgence in 2022 when he wasn’t on the shelf with injury. If he could stay healthy for a whole year, he might be a decent stop-gap measure while Walker heals up. I could see bringing him back on a one-year, team-friendly deal, and roll the dice that he will stay healthy enough to get 20 starts out of him in 2023. It’s an option, but I’m not sure how many eggs I’d throw in that basket.
If we look at the free agent market, there are some intriguing names out there. There are three big names on the list that every GM would love to add to their staffs: Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Rodon.
deGrom is tantalizing, but I’m not sure the Dodgers want to invest in a pitcher that seems to be even more injury prone than Clayton Kershaw. However, seeing both deGrom and Kershaw in a rotation would truly be remarkable, and I wouldn’t mind it if Friedman decided to go that way. Still, it’s too big a risk, I think, for the Dodgers to bank on .
Verlander is coming off a Cy Young year, and he might be my first choice for the Dodgers. At nearly 40, he won’t need a huge time commitment, and has proven that there is plenty left in the tank with his amazing 2022. I know Verlander was an Astro* in 2022, but he doesn’t bother me in the same way that, say, Correa does. He came to Houston at the tail end of 2017, when trashcan-gate was well underway. You could blame him for not asserting his leadership, but I give him a pass on that stuff. It just isn’t how organizations work.
Rodon has had injury issues as well, but his stellar 2022 showed me that he’d be worth a deal. He wouldn’t have any of the baggage of Verlander and he might have the biggest potential window of sustained success of any of these three guys. He’s a full ten years younger than Verlander, and a deal with him might set up the Dodgers for that inevitable day not too far off when Clayton Kershaw rides off into the sunset. And, as a Cuban American, he’s bound to be a favorite with LA’s Latino fanbase.
But, let’s not discount the possibility that Friedman et al have their eyes on the next Tyler Anderson. Somebody who’s a bit undervalued in the marketplace who’s ready to bust out under the tutelage of Mark Prior and the rest of the Dodgers’ pitching department. After all, Anderson was a bit of a ho-hum signing toward the end of Spring Training in 2022. Who’s to say that the Dodgers can’t do the same thing with some other journeyman free agent, who’s out there in the weeds, waiting for his chance to shine?
Whatever the Dodgers decide to do, one thing is clear. Standing pat and going with what they’ve got right now is NOT going to get it done in 2023. Moves have got to be made. And we’ll just have to wait and see what moves they end up being.
