Roster move makes sense when you crunch the numbers

CAMELBACK RANCH, AZ — Although the arrival was not directly linked to the departure, making room on the 40-man roster for Hanser Alberto and his player profile led to the setting off of one of the beloved players at Chavez Ravine, Matt Beaty.

Beaty had been a Dodgers player for the last three seasons. In general, he was an excellent replacement player with enough versatility (1B, 3B, RF, LF) to be used by Dave Roberts frequently. In addition, Beaty showed some potential as a hitter (OPS+ of 101 in 556 plate appearances) that at times was game-changing, but that did not completely come to fruition.

Looking inside, Beaty saw in 2021 (in the most recent year alone) 885 pitches. He had 3.8% of his hits converted into barrels, less than the 4.4% he has over his entire career. His average hit exit velocity was 88.4 mph and his connection angle averaged 10.9 degrees. His XWOBA (expected on-base weighted average) was .308 with 16.4% striking out and 7% walking.

Alberto’s numbers very similar

Hanser Alberto, so similar that comparison is easy, saw 834 pitches. His barrel was 4.5% (far higher than the 2.7% he averages over his six-season career). Although the speed that he managed to print on his connections was slightly lower (87.1 mph), the angle of departure does favor connections with greater undisputed potential (16.1 degrees for 13 in his entire career). His XWOBA was .294 but his 10.2% strikeout rate allows him to put more balls in play.

The Dominican is a natural killer on fastballs (.341 from XWOBA) and just a 9.3% Whiff. His work against lefties left him with a .286 / .318 / .454 offensive line in 2021 and Babip (batting average on balls in play) was .302. There he outperforms Matt in usability and result.

Even with an aggressive profile by nature (19.08% of his at-bats he hit the first pitch) with favorable results (1,120 OPS) in that situation, Hanser needs to work on taking the batting moment easy and allowing himself to see more pitches (only 16.18% of his at-bats has gone past the 2-2 count) as a way to help the team and plays himself in position to get on base for free more often.

“El Potro” will surely be giving the Turners and Muncy days off because those three positions are his natural habitat. His defense isn’t outstanding, but he isn’t lacking either, so he’ll do his job glove in hand. He will also come in handy off the bench against left-handed pitchers and pitchers who have his most powerful and recurring weapon on the fastball.

Hanser was the better choice

That said, nostalgia will have to give way to reason. Beaty’s something of a fan favorite, but Hanser improves the second line of the Dodgers’ roster that will have to take charge if there are as many injuries as in 2021. Youth, experience, positive progress in the last season, well-defined offensive capabilities, growth potential that only the Dodgers know how to exploit in abundance are the elements that run ahead of change.

Besides, putting eyes on the general picture, Edwin Rios looks like he is back. There is almost no difference between his plate approach and Beaty’s. And the way I see it, there is only one roster spot left. Who would you give it to?

A King has died. Long live the King.