Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Dave Roberts’ short presser at the close of Game 2 of the NLCS pretty much boiled down to everybody asking one question, “What the heck was THAT?” Instead of an aggressive bullpenning strategy that had worked so well in Game 4 of the NLDS, where high-leverage guys were used early and often, Doc opted instead to entrust the game to his lowest leverage relievers and hope for the best. That decision will only make sense if the Dodgers win and win big in New York this week. Let me explain.
First, let’s look at what did happen. Ryan Brasier, the opener, had the highest postseason ERA of any of his core relievers. He got dinged for a leadoff homer, but then got out of the inning with a double play, so only faced four hitters and threw only 18 pitches. Landon Knack wasn’t a horrible choice to go second, but it was apparent pretty quickly that he didn’t have the good stuff on Monday. Why was he allowed to pitch to the top of the order when it was pretty apparent that he was struggling. The walk to Francisco Lindor is defensible, but why not go to a high-leverage guy to take down the hot-hitting Mark Vientos and get out of the inning with the game still at a manageable 2-0 deficit?
Later in the game, the Dodgers made a little noise and started to claw their way back into the game, cutting the deficit in half and making it a 6-3 ballgame. At that point, don’t you go for it, especially considering there is an off-day on Tuesday? Brent Honeywell did great, but why send out Edgardo Henriquez for a second inning of work in the ninth? That extra run that the Mets scored basically put the game out of reach. Meanwhile, Phillips, Kopech, and Treinen were sitting on their thumbs in the bullpen. With the blowout in Game 1 and the curious strategy in Game 2, this now means that it will be at least four days off for these three of the best bullpen arms. Wouldn’t you want at least one of them to get some work in so that they stay sharp for the rest of the series?
The answer, apparently, is “no.” Dave Roberts managed Game 2 as if it were a game in late July, a getaway day game in Cincinnati rather than a pivotal game of the NLCS. When asked about the strategy, Roberts said that “Huddy was down” (referring to Daniel Hudson) and Alex Vesia was injured, so the hyper-aggressive strategy employed in Game 4 of the NLDS just wasn’t possible. If Daniel Hudson can’t go more than one day in a row at this point in his career, then what is he doing pitching on Sunday night when the Dodgers were coasting to an easy win? Wouldn’t a lower leverage arm make more sense then? Couldn’t Ben Casparius have handled two innings in a 9-0 victory?
I know all this is Monday morning quarterbacking, but let’s see if there is method to this madness. If you figure that the Dodgers’ braintrust knows that it already has one win in its pocket. And it has the team’s three best starters going back-to-back-to-back on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday in New York. It makes some sense, given the depleted pitching resources, to hold back the best arms early in the series, accept a split, and essentially play a five-game series starting on Wednesday in New York. The Dodgers have all their starting pitching lined up, their bullpen is rested, and they’ll be facing the back half of the New York rotation (Luis Severino on Wednesday and probably David Peterson in some capacity on Thursday). On the other hand, the Dodgers can counter with Buehler, Yamamoto, and Flaherty, all on normal rest or better. Plus, the big dogs in the pen are still a mystery to the Mets, having sat out the games in Los Angeles.
So if that’s the strategy, and very well may be, then it’s critical for the Dodgers to win two out of three games in New York. They simply cannot marshall all their resources for this big push and then come home having to win two straight games in Los Angeles with no pitching left to do it with.
There’s no doubt about it. It’s a calculated risk. In an ideal world, the Dodgers would have four starters that they trust with the ball instead of the two and a half that they’re trying to get to the World Series with. Usually, the conventional wisdom says that you need to win one game in the visitor’s ballpark in each series to advance. But the way the Dodgers’ pitching sets up and the way things seem to be coming together this October, one win is not going to be good enough. It’s a choice made on Monday afternoon, but it might have repercussions through the rest of the postseason.
This damn well better work.
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