Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Don’t get me wrong. I’m as glad as the next guy that the Dodgers have clinched the NL West and very possibly the Number One seed in the NL bracket. But if I were a Padres fan today, I wouldn’t be that upset about the whole thing. In fact, there might be a way that this works in the Padres’ favor.
I know that when it comes down to the last few games of the season with the playoffs on the line, you can get too clever by half. But hear me out. As it stands now, the Padres go into Arizona with essentially nothing to play for. With a 91-68 record, they are virtually assured of the first Wild Card position in the playoffs. They lead both the Mets and the Diamondbacks by three going into the final weekend. One win would lock it up for them. And, they’ve got no chance of winning the division.
So the Padres are essentially playing with house money at this point. And, if they win tonight, they absolutely have no reason to spend any pitchers that they will use in the postseason on the last two games. So, they can essentially sit back, relax, rest their regulars, and let the chips fall where they may. That gives them the chance to get their pitching all lined up for the Wild Card round.
On the other hand, if the Padres had won on Thursday, they’d still have a mathematical shot at winning the division. And, with a bye at stake, you’d have to go for it, right? They’d have to throw their best arms at the Diamondbacks, hoping that they could sneak in under the wire and win the NL West. Now that the possibility of the bye is off the table, what motivation does the team have to try and win more than one game this weekend? None. So, other than some tune-up innings perhaps, the Padres’ pitching plans will probably involve all the low-leverage guys on Saturday and Sunday, allowing the Michael Kings and Dylan Ceases of the world to rest up for the postseason.
This positioning might actually be a blessing in disguise for the Padres. With the first Wild Card practically theirs, they can afford to strategically align their rotation for the Wild Card round without burning out their top arms in games that don’t matter. It’s almost a luxury to enter the postseason fully rested, particularly with a deep pitching staff. By contrast, the teams fighting for the remaining Wild Card spots are likely to push their aces hard through the final weekend, potentially limiting their strength in the first round of the playoffs.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have earned the right to rest their key players, with home-field advantage in the NL assured. The Padres, with their postseason rotation set and a well-rested bullpen, may find themselves in a favorable position come the Wild Card round. Although the division title eluded them, their upcoming series could provide the perfect tune-up to get back on track and make a deep playoff run.
In the end, while the Dodgers celebrate, the Padres might be able to quietly prepare for the next phase, positioning themselves for success in a possible rematch against the Dodgers in the next round. By keeping an eye on the long game, this loss might just turn into a win for San Diego after all.
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