Steve Webb
Scherzer or Buehler? Who gets the ball with everything on the line?
LOS ANGELES — It’s a good problem to have. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has himself two absolutely lights-out righthanders that most big league skippers would give their own arm for: Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. And until the last 48 hours, I would have said the decision who to start in a win-or-go-home game was an easy one. You start Walker Buehler. The kid is having the best season of his career, and he’s been nearly unhittable since the All Star break. Then, after that first postseason game, you can bring on Scherzer, Kershaw, and Urias in some order or other, and then you’re off to the next round.
However, with Buehler throwing a clunker in San Francisco and Scherzer dominating the Cardinals, that decision has gotten considerably more interesting since noon on Sunday. Granted, it’s probably one of those multiple choice questions with no wrong answer, but it’s a question that at least has to be asked. Especially with the possibility of a Wild Card game looming in the Dodgers’ future (God forbid!). So let’s look at these two aces and see if we can determine who would be best suited to pitch the first game of the postseason.
Season stats nearly identical
Both these pitchers are having magnificent 2021 campaigns. Walker Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA. Scherzer is 13-4 with a 2.28. Scherzer has struck out 210 hitters in 154 innings of work. Buehler, who has come to depend less on the K this season, has fanned 184 in 179 innings. Scherzer is also leading Buehler in terms of WHIP (walks and hits per inning). Scherzer has allowed 0.86 walks or hits per inning of work, while Buehler’s WHIP is now a still-awesome 0.94. So, while it’s pretty much a coin flip, Scherzer has a slight edge in three of four statistical categories.
Scherzer rejuvenated since trade
Plus, if you look at how Max Scherzer has done since being traded to a contender, it is really quite remarkable. He has improved on an already great season in almost every way since donning the Dodger blue. In his seven starts with the Dodgers (all of which have resulted in LA victories), Scherzer is 5-0 with 1.05 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. In addition, he’s got 63 strikeouts over just 43 innings of work. Over that same stretch, Buehler is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. And, perhaps even more telling, Scherzer has only five walks during that stretch, while Buehler has issued thirteen free passes.
Buehler’s one bad outing
True, much of Walker Buehler’s inflated numbers over the last seven starts come from that Sunday night clunker at Oracle Park. So, how the two pitchers fare in their final four or so starts of the season will go a long way to determining who would be the starter in a potential Wild Card game. In addition, who knows how the final week of the season will look? Will it go down to the wire for the division with San Francisco, forcing both teams to spend all their bullets down to the last day of the season? Or, will the division be pretty much decided allowing managers to get their ducks in a row for the postseason?
Opponents matter, too
Plus, a lot could come down to Doc’s level of confidence with a certain pitcher against a certain lineup. If it’s a Wild Card game against San Diego, Buehler has pitched well in his three starts so far this year. He’s gone 19.2 innings and given up four earned runs. Scherzer, on the other hand, was solid against the Padres pitching for the Dodgers, but as a National, he made two sub-par starts earlier in the year, including getting rocked for seven earned runs in back in July. However, each pitcher should have at least one and maybe two more looks at the Padres before the end of the year.
What about a Wild Card game with Cincinnati? Well, that might even be a whole other story. The Reds struggle mightily against left-handed pitching, as their big bats tend to quiet down against southpaws. Their OPS is nearly 100 points less with lefthanders on the mound. So, if it came down to a one-gamer with the Reds, Julio Urias might be a better choice.
Best solution: win the division
All this speculation goes away if the Dodgers win the NL West. Then, they have a guaranteed five games and EVERYBODY gets to start and the only question is who do you want to throw a second time in a potential Game 5 in the first round. If the Dodgers play the Giants, that is a pretty good possibility, considering how close the two teams have battled this year.
It’s a good problem to have. And Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman have plenty of thinking to do before the end of the season. Let’s hope both pitchers keep shoving like they are, so that it remains a tough choice.
