Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — Gone are the days when workhorse pitchers threw 250-300 innings in a year. Load management is a thing not just in the NBA. Last season only five pitchers in MLB cleared over 200 innings. So given that reality, and given the unique situation that the Dodger pitching staff is in, is it time for the Brain Trust to consider moving to a six-man rotation for the regular season?
First let’s look at the facts. The Dodgers have an absolute stud in Walker Buehler, but he is coming off a second Tommy John surgery. It would make sense to bring him back slowly so we can get prime Walker in the late stages of the season and October. Second, you’ve got Tyler Glasnow, who has a history of injuries as well, and who has never pitched more than 120 innings in a year. The chances of the Dodgers pushing either of these guys to 200 IP are very very slim.
Okay, fair enough, what’s next? Well, we have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s been great in Japan, but again has never gone 200 IP in a season. Remember, that Japanese professional baseball has a shorter season than MLB by 18 games, which knock two or three starts off the possible number in the first place. Still, Yamamoto pitched between 150-200 innings the last three seasons in Japan. Probably, the Dodgers could expect from him somewhere in the neighborhood of what Kodai Senga did in his first season in the Show, 166 innings of work.
After those three, we only have guys who haven’t even had one season of big league experience: Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Michael Grove. Miller is the only one of those three who went over 100 innings at the big league level last year; he pitched 124. Grove pitched 69.0 innings and Sheehan pitched 60. All three guys logged additional innings in the minors, but it’s unlikely that any of these guys would get over 150 in 2024.
This is why Ryan Yarbrough is such an intriguing possibility for the rotation. He has pitched around 150 innings three times in his career with Tampa Bay, and he was right around 100 IP last year between Kansas City and the Dodgers. Plus he’s a lefty, which might be nice sandwiched between all those righthanders that the Dodgers are going to be throwing at teams at the top of the rotation.
So I could see a rotation of Buehler, Yammamoto, Glasnow Miller, Yarbrough and then either Sheehan or Grove throwing in the six hole. Hopefully, Clayton Kershaw could be added to that mix in the second half of the year, but slotting him into a pre-existing six-man rotation would probably best for him, given his age and injury history. If not Kershaw, the Dodgers definitely need to add a quality lefty to their rotation, either before the year begins or at the trade deadline. A steady diet of righthanders is a recipe for disaster in the postseason.
Going to a six-man rotation has risks involved; it robs your best pitchers of starts in favor of unproven arms. However, as we have seen, it doesn’t really matter if the Dodgers win 106 games or 96. What matters is that you have your horses ready to go come October, which the Dodgers most definitely did NOT do in 2023.
A six-man rotation might go a long way to ensuring that doesn’t happen again.
