Cody Snavely
It has been well-documented how lackluster the Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation was during the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season.
Not only did they post the highest collective ERA the team has had in the Andrew Friedman era, but they were also riddled with injuries that eventually ended the Dodgers’ season.
Dodgers starting pitchers had a 4.57 ERA in 2023, which ranked 20th in the majors. They were similarly in the bottom third in the majors in both ERA+ and FanGraphs WAR, an area in which the Dodgers ranked in the top two and the top three every year in the previous six seasons.
Despite some bright spots, such as the emergence of young right-handed flamethrower Bobby Miller, who proved to be an anchor for the rotation in the second half, the Dodgers failed to address the depth, and the team paid handsomely in the 2023 National League Division Series.
The Dodgers’ lack of starters in October was their Achilles’ heel. The starters posted a collective ERA of 63.90 in 4.2 innings, prompting the Dodgers to need a clear plan to fix a massive problem heading into the offseason.
Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman would accomplish that and more by not only re-signing veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw but also trading for righty Tyler Glasnow, signing top free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a depth piece in veteran lefty James Paxton.
Yet despite all that success in the winter, the Dodgers, for most of the 2024 season, have battled the same demons that plagued them all of last season: injuries and inconsistencies.
Glasnow and Yamamoto have spent most of their time in the second half on the injured list. Bobby Miller has had an awful second season in the big leagues, posting an ERA over seven as we enter late August, and the team has lost multiple arms to season-ending arm injuries.
But despite all the juggling of the roster and rotation, one arm has stepped up above all others and, in many ways, has been the Dodger’s most dependable arm in 2024: Gavin Stone.
Entering the 2024 season, Stone making the 26-man roster was not a given, let alone a spot in the rotation; however, an injury to right-handed pitcher Emmet Sheehan opened the door for the young righty who was looking to turn the page after a lukewarm debut season.
Stone was ineffective in eight appearances in the 2023 season, pitching to an ERA of nine with a 1.190 WHIP and 6.64 FIP in thirty-one innings pitched, bouncing in between spot starts in the rotation and a few relief appearances.
However, entering the 2023/2024 offseason, Stone was determined to right the ship, get better, and earn a spot on the Dodgers roster.
During the offseason, Stone revealed that he suffered a blister on his right foot for the first half of the 2023 season, which contributed to some of his struggles and even led to him tipping pitches.
However, those problems are now past him, and his next off-season goal was to gain weight. In an interview with Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic Stone, mentioned that he put on 10-15 pounds this offseason to maintain his weight throughout the long 162-game season.
The added weight gain brought on by “lots of Chipolte” would allow him to maintain his velocity, and Stone’s adjustments seem to have paid off. During the 2024 Cactus League, his fastball velocity sat around 95-96 mph.
Stone would win the fifth spot in the Dodgers rotation and would not look back. Stone has been one of the best rookie starters in the league, with a 3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 3.89 FIP.
Of all Dodgers starting pitchers this season, only Tyler Glasnow (9) has gone at least seven-plus innings more time than Gavin Stone (7). Only Stone has not only a complete game but also a complete game shutout, and only Stone has made every start in his turn on the rotation, leading the Dodgers with twenty-four starts this season.
In a year where the Dodgers needed someone to step up in the rotation, Gavin Stone built off his 2023 season and has exceeded the Dodgers’ expectations, all while not being a power pitcher like fellow rookie right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes, instead relying on his seven-pitch mix that includes a fastball (24.7%), change up (26.5%), sinker (22.8%), slider (14.7%), cutter (5.5%), curveball (4.1%), and sweeper (1.6%).
Stone, 25, is in an age where velocity matters, where throwing harder, faster, and more violently is the attention grabber for many front offices across Major League Baseball. However, Stone is the crack in that trend, only ranking in the 68th percentile in Fastball Velocity this season, according to Baseball Savant.
Stone is what “old heads” call a pitcher’s pitcher, where the young righty would rather have the ball put in play than overwork himself and get the punchout. This season, Stone has a ground ball percentage of 43.2 and a flyball percentage of 36.9 while having a below-league average (22.2%) strikeout rate of 20.0 and has benefited from an above-league-average Dodgers defense with an xFIP of 4.03.
Gavin Stone vs League Averages
- K%- 22.2% (20.0%) ⬇️
- BB%- 8.1% (6.4%) ⬇️
- GB%- 42.6% (43.2%) ⬆️
- FB%- 25.8% (36.9%) ⬆️
There are plenty of reasons to examine why Stone has had so much success this season despite not having overpowering stuff. Returning to Baseball Savant, Stone also ranks in the 94th percentile in Offspeed Run-Value and 93rd in Pitching Run-Value.
When Stone allows runners on, he leaves 80.8 percent of those baserunners put while also only having a .246 batting average against, a .285 BABIP, and a low 1.06 HR/9.
However, the 2024 season has not been perfect for Stone. July was easily the righties’ worst month of the season, as Stone pitched to a 6.27 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, .382 BABIP, 2.41 HR/9, and 2.41 BB/9 in 18.2 innings.
Questions of fatigue came up as Stone is currently throwing more innings than at any moment in his collegiate and professional career. He has 135.1 innings so far and is on pace for over one hundred sixty by season’s end.
The Dodgers know this and have done everything in their power to give extra rest days to several starting pitchers in their rotation, including Gavin Stone. They have even limited how deep he goes into games and the dreaded third time through the order, where the stats back up that the righty has struggled.
Like most above-average starting pitchers, Stone, for the first time through an order, has a 2.19 ERA with a .270 wOBA. The second time through the order, those numbers increased to 3.21 ERA and .311 wOBA. The third time, those numbers jumped drastically to 3.86 ERA and .337 wOBA.
Fortunately for Stone, he has managed to get deep into games, regularly appearing in the sixth and seventh innings this season, which the Dodgers rotation has lacked since the start of June.
After a rough July, Stone has made the adjustments necessary to continue pitching at a high clip. As we enter late August, the Dodgers are 3-0 in his starts, with the rookie pitching to a 0.95 ERA, allowing only two earned runs over his last nineteen innings pitched, racking up twenty-three strikeouts and an astounding 0.6316 WHIP.
Stone has also seen an uptick in strikeouts over his last five starts, punching out batters at a 27.2% clip compared to 18.3% in his first nineteen starts of the 2024 season.
Compared to rookie starting pitchers, Stone is also in a class of his own among rookie starting pitchers in the National League, ranking 2nd in innings pitched (135.1), 9th in ERA (3.33), 9th in FIP (3.89), 4th in WAR (2.2), tied-1st in games started (24), and 1st in pitching wins (11).
With Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both expected to be back in September before October begins, newly acquired pitcher Jack Flaherty and veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw in the fold for October, Gavin Stone has a case to not only make the postseason roster or start a game but could perhaps be a frontline guy in the first round come October.
Stone has been the Los Angeles Dodgers’ best and most dependable starting pitcher this season. For the Dodgers to succeed in October, they will need to have him continue pitching at an elite level while staying healthy. While he may not win the hardware for National League Rookie of the Year, he was most definitely the most impactful rookie in the league, especially on the Dodgers roster.
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