Cody Snavely
As the season winds down to the final days of August with October on the horizon and the 2024 postseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty of roster decisions to make over the final six weeks of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season.
One of those decisions is the spot of left-handed hitting outfielder on the roster, a battle between two veterans, 35-year-old Jason Heyward and 34-year-old Kevin Kiermaier. With Chris Taylor‘s activation imminent, a decision will have to be made sooner rather than later. But who should the Dodgers choose?
The Case for Kevin Kiermaier
It has not been the best season for 34-year-old veteran Kevin Kiermaier. In his second season with Toronto, the lefty was hitting an abysmal .195/.236/.310, which ultimately led to Kiermaier being placed on waivers prior to the 2024 Major League Baseball trade deadline.
When asked about the decision, Kiermaier explained that he understood based on how he played and his status as a pending free agent. With the Toronto Blue Jays out of postseason contention, they were actively looking to shop the pending free agent. The Jays would get their wish, as the Los Angeles Dodgers would be the team to take on Kevin Kiermaier in exchange for recently DFA’d left-handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough.
Before his arrival in Los Angeles, Kiermaier stated he was hopeful a team would take a chance on him and that he would like to spend his final season chasing a World Series Championship. The Dodgers are indeed that team with the highest expectations across Major League Baseball, where anything short of a World Series title is considered a failure.
Kiermaier is reunited with Andrew Friedman, who drafted Kevin Kiermaier in the 31st round of the 2010 Major League Baseball draft when Friedman was the Tampa Bay Rays’ General Manager and was recently linked to the Dodgers the past two off-seasons before ultimately re-signing with the Blue Jays.
Kiermaier has made an immediate impact since his arrival, hitting .242/.286/.364. He has also made a massive difference in center field, making multiple highlight and game-altering plays. However, with the activation of Tommy Edman, his playing time will be significantly reduced, making him more of a bench bat/late defensive replacement.
Throughout his career, Kiermaier has struggled against left-handed pitching, and that is no different in 2024. The left-handed bat has a .143/.222/.184 slash line against Southpaws this season. However, against righties, it has not been too much better, with Kiermaier only hitting .217/.249/.535 with a .602 OPS and 68 wRC+.
Kiermaier shines in his defensive play. This season, he has ten DRS, eight rPM, and ten OAA while also ranking in the 96th percentile in Fielding Run-Value and 97th in arm strength.
Despite his age, Kiermaier has maintained his status as one of the best defensive players in baseball. In October, when the games are as close as they are, with every pitch, swing, and catch changing the complexion of the game, it is a great skill to have on the bench or lineup.
However, one area where Kiermaier has not been successful this season is high leverage. The lefty has a .190/.182/.333 slash line with a 32 wRC+, a trait that does not bode well for postseason baseball.
The Case for Jason Heyward
Entering the 2024 season off the heels of a resurgence last season, Heyward hit .269/.340/.473 with a .813 OPS, opting the Dodgers to re-sign the veteran to a one-year $9 million contract this past offseason. Heyward was set to be the full-time right fielder, with Mookie Betts transitioning to the infield.
However, as we enter mid-August, those plans have changed, with Betts reverting back to right field full-time, which puts Heyward’s playing time in an awkward situation.
With the shift in playing time and roster construction after the trade deadline, the Dodgers have even started providing Heyward with center field reps to get the 35-year-old veteran playing time.
While 2023 was a great comeback year for Heyward, 2024 has been the opposite. The lefty bat has hit .208/.289/.393 with a 91 wRC+, along with two stints on the injured list that have made it hard for him to get in a rhythm.
With Tommy Edman in center field, Mookie Betts in right field, and Teoscar Hernández in left field, Heyward’s value as a left-handed bat is to platoon or come off the bench against right-handed pitching.
However, Heyward this season has reverse splits hitting lefties (.308/.308/.538, 135 wRC+) better than righties (.200/.288/.381, 88 wRC+), which does not help the Dodgers lineup construction when the team is fully healthy.
Defensively, Heyward has maintained an above-league average play, having a .991 fielding percentage, three DRS, three rPM, and one OAA in right field, but also ranks very low in fielding run value, placing in the 45th percentile.
Where Heyward shines this season compared to Kiermaier is hitting in high leverage .214/.250/.571 with a 114 wRC+ in those situations.
This was made even clearer during yesterday’s game when Heyward was called off the bench to pinch hit for Kiké Hernández, who hit a go-ahead three-run home run.
Decision time?
With Chris Taylor returning to the Dodgers roster, the team must make some tough decisions, including their overpopulated position player pool.
I think the Dodgers should place Heyward on the 10-day injured list when Taylor is activated until rosters expand in September. That way, you can keep both Kevin Kiermaier and Heyward on the roster until you have to make the decision again for the postseason.
When October rolls around, my gut tells me that Heyward’s clutch three-run bomb yesterday likely saved his job and will not go unnoticed.
While Kiermaier is a great defensive option, the Dodgers already have that in center field with Tommy Edman. They need clutch hitting for October, which Heyward has shown he can do better than Kiermaier in high-leverage situations.
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