LOS ANGELES– The Dodgers made one of the biggest splashes this offseason with the addition of Kyle Tucker, a move that has fans around the league in awe of how good this lineup can be. While it’s easy to get caught up in the hype and the theoreticals, it’s important to tie our analysis of the move to statistics, which highlight just how dominant the Dodgers could be with Tucker in right.
To estimate the Dodgers’ expected wins last season, we can estimate wins based on how many runs a team scores and allows. Using this equation, I was able to input the Dodgers’ 825 runs scored and 683 runs allowed. It projects about 94 wins, which is very close to their actual total of 93 wins. This suggests that their season performance was largely in line with what one would expect given their offensive and defensive output based on our equation.
Last season, Michael Conforto scored 54 runs, while Kyle Tucker scored 91 runs, a difference of 37 runs. These numbers are significant as runs impact whether or not a team wins games. With Kyle Tucker taking over as the everyday right fielder, and if we assume that he scores the same amount of runs, Kyle Tucker is projected to add 4 wins during the regular season to the defending champions. These 4 additional wins would impact the NL significantly.
With the addition of Kyle Tucker, their run total increases to 862 runs. Furthermore, if we assume that the Dodgers give up 683 runs (they might even give up less with the acquisition of Edwin Diaz) like they did last season, we can project that they will win about 98 wins, a number that secures them as the number 1 seed in the NL.
The Dodgers aren’t just gearing up for another playoff run, but they’re trying to three-peat in a dominant fashion that cements them as one of the greatest dynasties in MLB history.
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
