Cody Snavely
The Los Angeles Dodgers have kicked off a strong second half, winning five of their last six games since the conclusion of the all-star break. However, it was not all sunshine and rainbows in Tinseltown, as the Dodgers limped into the break, losing five of their last six games.
The starting rotation, or the lack thereof, was a massive reason the Dodgers struggled as a team. In the final month of the first half of the 2024 regular season, the Dodgers had lost Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to injury and optioned right-handed pitcher Bobby Miller to Triple-A OKC after a disastrous sophomore season.
The Dodgers’ plethora of rookie starters has helped stop the bleeding. They have a combined 16-8 record and a 3.10 ERA, capped off by two strong performances by River Ryan and Landon Knack this series alone.
However, despite Father Time trying their best to push this Dodger great away, destiny still arrives as veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw is set to make his 2024 season debut after rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery.
The return could not be more critical for the Dodgers’ rotation. The seventeen-year vet will bring familiarity and stability to a rotation that has taken some punches over the past eight weeks.
It is not an unfamiliar situation for the lefty, as throughout his career, the Dodgers have called him for support after a hiatus on the injured list. In 2016 and 2017, he rejoined the team after a back injury. In 2021, he battled through multiple injuries, but it was a left forearm issue that ended his season.
As recently as last season, the Dodgers, who were deprived of pitching depth, relied heavily on the then thirty-five-year-old. Despite his age, he put together one of the best seasons in a few years, racking up thirteen wins while posting a 2.46 ERA in 131.2 innings.
However, it would be a shoulder injury that would rewrite how we look at the 2023 season of Clayton Kershaw as the lefty would miss significant time during the summer and, upon his return, would attempt to compete with a diminished velocity.
It all came to a boil in the 2023 National League Division Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. As we all know, Kershaw was unable to get out of the first inning, surrendering six runs before the fans could get in their seats.
After the Dodgers were unceremoniously eliminated from the 2023 postseason in three games, Clayton Kershaw would make the biggest decision of his career and go under the knife to repair a left shoulder that ailed him.
It was the first surgery for the then-sixteen-year veteran, and while there was some doubt about a possible return to Los Angeles, the two came to an agreement before spring training started.
Since then, it has been an uphill battle to rejoin the Major League club. After extensive rehab and multiple minor league starts, Clayton Kershaw is about to successfully fulfill his “mid-summer” return goal with a start against the San Francisco Giants.
Before that return, Kershaw made three separate minor league starts, going three innings in the first two and four innings in his final start. Overall, the veteran lefty had a 3.60 ERA in ten innings pitched, striking out twelve and posting a 1.00 WHIP.
Kershaw returns to a Dodgers rotation that has used fifteen different pitchers to start a game, has a 5.57 starting pitching ERA in July, and since June 1st, has the sixth-highest FIP in the National League at 4.46, along with a 4.65 ERA in that same span.
On the season, the Dodgers rank 5th in the National League in starting pitching ERA (9th in 2023) but 11th in innings pitched by starters and have the 5th most innings pitched by their bullpen, which has started to show with the recent struggles to the pen.
While the Dodgers had hoped not to be in a position to rely on the veteran, they will need him more than ever to help stabilize the rotation and hopefully do what lefty James Paxton could not.
However, Kershaw and the Dodgers are venturing into uncharted territory. Despite a solid season from the thirty-five-year-old in 2023, there were clear indicators of a decline in performance.
During the 2023 regular season, Kershaw posted the second-highest FIP of his career at 4.03, falling just shy of his rookie mark of 4.08 in 2008. He also had the highest xERA of his career since the stat was tracked in 2011, at 3.77.
While those numbers aren’t the best, the veteran lefty still ranked in the 99th percentile in breaking run value and 89th in pitching run value. While the velocity of years past is all but gone, with Kershaw ranking in the 10th percentile in fastball velocity, he has adapted to a new era of his career to stay afloat.
FanGraphs doesn’t expect a Cy Young season, but for the Dodgers to succeed, they need the lefty healthy. For the season projections, Kershaw is slated for a 4-3 record with a 3.72 ERA, 8.82 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, and a 3.79 FIP.
While things were expected to be different in 2024, with many having Kershaw as an afterthought, we are here before the trade deadline with him lined up to be in a pivotal situation. His health and performance are critical to the Dodgers’ success, not just for the regular season but also for October.
While a lot can change over the next few days, the Dodgers need Kershaw to turn back the clock and be himself, and hopefully, by season end, he can get the swan song he deserves on an otherwise Hall of Fame career.
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