Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — The Dodgers were eagerly anticipating the return of their ace, Walker Buehler, who’s currently working his way back from Tommy John surgery. But eight starts in, we haven’t seen anything close to the Walker we remember. We all need to realize that what he’s trying to do really hasn’t been done that often. Coming back from ONE TJ procedure is doable, but coming back from a second Tommy John? Incredibly difficult. Yet, it can be done.
First some background on Buehler. Dodger fans will recall that he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 before he even made his MLB debut, which is why the team was able to snag him so late in the first round (21st overall pick). Now he’s facing the challenge of recovering from it a second time. The second surgery can be more daunting, with longer recovery times and potentially lower odds of success. However, several pitchers have proven it’s possible to bounce back. Let’s look at some of the players who’ve undergone this procedure multiple times and how their careers fared after the second surgery.
Nathan Eovaldi
Take Nathan Eovaldi, for example. He’s had two Tommy John surgeries—one in 2007 and another in 2016—and he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball at age 33. This includes the 2018 season in which Eovaldi was an absolute stud for the Red Sox in the postseason. Since TJ, Eovaldi has put up decent, but not spectacular numbers. His ERA since he returned to pitching the second time is 3.91 with an ERA+ of 113 over an average of about 100 innings per year. Solid, but not spectacular. However, in the postseason, Eovaldi has been nails. In his three playoff runs since the surgery, Eovaldi has a 3.05 ERA, including an amazing 1.61 in that magical Red Sox run of 2018. At that time, Eovaldi was 28 years old. Buehler is 29 today. Perhaps Walker can draw inspiration from Eovaldi’s success, knowing that a second surgery doesn’t necessarily spell the end of a career.
There are other success stories too. Jameson Taillon, LA’s own Daniel Hudson, Jason Isringhausen, Chris Capuano, and Joakim Soria have all made notable comebacks after their second Tommy John procedures. These examples show that while the road to recovery is tough, it’s definitely navigable.
Daniel Hudson
Hudson has spoken at length about coming back from the second sugery. In 2020, he participated in a virtual roundtable (we are all virtual in 2020 if you recall) on MLB radio in which he discussed the challenges that having two Tommy John surgeries created in his career.
“I was coming off my first full season in the big leagues in 2011,” Hudson explained at the time. “I threw like 220 innings,” [222 IP actually], “had a pretty good season, we made the playoffs that year, so going into 2012 there was a lot of excitement, everybody’s looking forward to hopefully winning the [NL] West again, and, you know, I started feeling a little something in actually my shoulder at first, and it was after a start — probably my second or third start of 2012, and just had a little tightness like in the deltoid area, my shoulder — after my third start. Ended up having to go on the DL for that, and I got a cortisone shot and kind of cleaned everything up for a little while, and then I think I was probably out for like a month with that and we ended up — after I came off the DL I did a couple rehab starts and then came back and my first start back, kind of felt a little bit of stiffness in the forearm, and of course first start back after it was — so I’m like kind of panicking a little bit, I think I threw like five innings and did somewhat decent in that game, but then it just kind of gradually got worse and worse in my forearm and tricep/elbow area.
“I was going in for extra treatment, trainers and all kind of knew what was going on, and I wasn’t actually being completely honest about how bad it was actually hurting. I had some bad games mixed in with a good game here or there, so in the back of my mind I’m still trying to kind of maybe push it off like, ‘It’s not that bad. I’ll just keep getting treatment and I’ll be good to go.’”
That’s never a good idea, of course, which he acknowledged in hindsight, and it wasn’t all that long before he’d torn his ulnar collateral ligament again.
“And then I remember I think it was the middle of June 2012,” Hudson continued. “We were in Atlanta and I just had this start where I literally couldn’t — you know that feeling you just can’t — every time you really get extended on a heater or something like that, just this shooting pain up my whole arm almost all the way up into my shoulder, and so obviously being cognizant of that, I’m not exactly getting extended on anything, and just can’t finish any pitch. I’m letting a lot of fastballs go high and inside to righties and just yanking sliders and changeups into the dirt and finally I’m just tired of being all over the place, I finally call the trainer out and come out of the game in Atlanta, fly back to Arizona and get an MRI and sure enough it’s torn.”
At that point, he went under the knife for the first time.
“Tommy John surgery a couple weeks later. Fast forward a year: I’m in my first official rehab start in Double-A, coming off — I’m probably supposed to go about 70 pitches. I had thrown in the Instructional League 4-5 innings here and there, and so I go to Double-A, first inning goes fine, go back out for the second, it’s a little tight, don’t really think anything of it, and then like three pitches in I think I threw a slider and just felt it go again, and ended up finishing the inning but my fastball velocity was like 84-85 when the inning before that I was sitting like 94, and yeah, sure enough fly all the way back to Arizona the next day, MRI — I asked the doctor if I needed to come back to the doctor’s office and see him, and he said, ‘No, I’ll just see you at the field later tonight,’ I was planning on going to the game, and like an hour later I’m getting a call from him and I just knew it was bad news. And sure enough, torn again, so, yeah it was a little bit frustrating for me for that matter, obviously, but fast forward… and knock on wood, still relatively healthy.”
Buehler’s gap between surgeries is not nearly as short as Huddy’s, but comparatively, it’s a relatively short gap between his two surgeries, about eight years. This isn’t as long as the gaps some other pitchers have had, like Hyun-Jin Ryu, who had an 18-year gap, or John Axford, who also had 18 years between surgeries. However, a shorter gap can sometimes mean a quicker recovery, as the body might still be somewhat accustomed to the rehabilitation process.
By the Numbers
The guys over at Rotographs have done an analysis of the 45 pitchers who have tried to come back since Tommy John came to call a second time, and the results are decidedly mixed. Here’s a summary of what they discovered:
The study examined pitcher performance before and after a second Tommy John surgery (TJS). The data revealed the following trends across different seasons:
From Season Before to Season of 2nd TJS (y1 to y2)
- Innings Pitched (IP): 1155
- Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9): +0.4
- Walks per 9 innings (BB/9): +0.2
- Earned Run Average (ERA): +0.39
- Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): -0.01
- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP): +0.11
- Fastball Velocity (FBv): -0.15
- Count: 27 (25 for xFIP and FBv)
From Season of to Season Returning from 2nd TJS (y2 to y3)
- Innings Pitched (IP): 1142
- Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9): +0.9
- Walks per 9 innings (BB/9): +0.1
- Earned Run Average (ERA): +0.20
- Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): +0.12
- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP): -0.04
- Fastball Velocity (FBv): -0.31
- Count: 26 (24 for xFIP and FBv)
From Season Returning to Season After Returning from 2nd TJS (y3 to y4)
- Innings Pitched (IP): 1139
- Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9): -0.1
- Walks per 9 innings (BB/9): +0.7
- Earned Run Average (ERA): +0.88
- Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): +0.17
- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP): +0.25
- Fastball Velocity (FBv): +0.44
- Count: 28 (26 for xFIP and FBv)
From Season Before to Season After 2nd TJS (y1 to y4)
- Innings Pitched (IP): 1268.3
- Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9): +0.58
- Walks per 9 innings (BB/9): +0.48
- Earned Run Average (ERA): +0.25
- Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): +0.03
- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP): +0.07
- Fastball Velocity (FBv): +0.1
- Count: 24 (20 for xFIP and FBv)
Summary
The study found no clear trends in performance changes following a second Tommy John surgery. Key observations include:
- ERA: Generally increased.
- xFIP: Remained relatively constant.
- Strikeouts (K/9) and Walks (BB/9): Both trended upward.
- Fastball Velocity (FBv): Increased from the third to fourth season.
Overall, pitchers tend to return to a level of performance similar to before their second surgery, with some expected decline due to aging (average age ~30).
For Buehler, the path ahead is challenging but not insurmountable. Other than the fantastic start against the Reds at Dodger Stadium (his third of the season), the old Walker Buehler has been nowhere to be seen, and now he’s back to the IL to sort things out. It’s hard to see him coming back to start if his stay on the IL extends past the All-Star break. And with this being Walker’s final year under team control, it might be worth trading him. But what contender is going to bite on that fish hook? Who wants the “damaged goods” that Buehler is looking like right now?
I like Walker Buehler a lot, love his competive nature, but the numbers don’t necessarily work in his favor. He’s not getting any younger, and he has a LONG way to go before he’s a usable pitcher in the big leagues. How the front office deals with this going forward will go a long way in determining what kind of October LA will have this year.
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