Dodgers Analysis: Keys to a Game Six Win in Toronto

TORONTO—Well, so much for the Los Angeles Dodgers ruining baseball, amirite?

After yet another embarrassing loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in Game Five of the World Series, the Dodgers are now on the brink of elimination, the first time that’s happened since Game Four of the National League Division Series against their National League West rival, the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers rolled through the NL this October, sweeping the Reds in the Wild Card Series, taking care of the Philadelphia Phillies in four games, and finishing the job with a sweep of the NL-leading Milwaukee Brewers to return to the Fall Classic for the second consecutive season.

The Dodgers opened up as the overwhelming favorites in the World Series against the Blue Jays, and for good reason. They have the stars —Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani —and were 9-1 in the postseason.

Now you can throw that all out the window, as over the last five games in this World Series, the Blue Jays have outperformed Los Angeles in every facet of the game.

The World Series isn’t finished yet, but following their 6-1 loss to the Blue Jays on Wednesday night, the Dodgers are behind three games to two as the Series returns to Toronto. Historically, only eight of 31 teams with that deficit in the Series have managed to come back and win, according to STATS Perform. Notably, two of these teams —the 2016 Chicago Cubs and the 2019 Washington Nationals —occurred within the last decade.

So what does Los Angeles have to do to force a winner-take-all Game Seven? Let’s break it down.

Yamamoto Has to Be Perfect

There is no way to sugarcoat it: Yamamoto has to be perfect in Game Six if the Dodgers want to play a Game Seven on Saturday.

The 27-year-old Japanese right-hander has been the Dodgers’ best starter from start to finish this season, posting a 2.49 ERA during the regular season and kicking it up a notch during October, tossing two complete games and dropping his ERA to 1.57 across four appearances.

In Game Two, with the Dodgers down 0-1 in the Series, Los Angeles turned to Yamamoto to even the Series before heading back to Chavez Ravine for three straight games at Dodger Stadium.

Now, the right-hander will be tasked yet again to not only even the Series but save the Dodgers from elimination.

Yamamoto, the first pitcher since Curt Schilling in 2001 to throw consecutive complete games in the postseason, offers the Dodgers a great chance to win Game Six.

In Game Two, Yamamoto only allowed one run off of four hits, and if the Dodgers ’ offense remains anemic, they’ll need a similar line to put up a win.

The game plan is simple for Yamamoto and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts: seven-plus innings and hand the ball straight to Roki Sasaki or Shohei Ohtani.

“I’m concentrating on one thing, and that’s to win,” Yamamoto said. “I’ll focus on the game in front of me and play the way I always play.”

The Offense Must Perform

Regardless of whether Yamamoto is perfect or not, the Dodgers will not force a Game Seven if they don’t score.

The Dodgers’ offense has been ice cold for most of October, but it’s nearly disappeared during the first five games of this World Series.

Some of the Dodgers’ offensive struggles may be due to bad luck. Their batting average on balls in play during the last three Series is .265, 13 points below the postseason league average, while the Blue Jays’ playoff BABIP is .305. Additionally, the Dodgers are striking out more frequently (25%) than the Blue Jays (16%) during that period and are hitting fewer home runs.

However, after only scoring three runs over their last 20 innings, the team forced Roberts’ hand to make changes for Game Five, and he did.

Moving up to the two-hole was Dodgers catcher Will Smith, dropping Mookie Betts to the three-hole, a position he had not been in the batting order since the 2021 season.

Out was center fielder Andy Pages, who has struggled all of October and was 1-for-15 in the Fall Classic.

Alex Call, who entered the game as a pinch hitter yesterday, hoped to give the Dodgers a better shot of getting on base in the nine-hole to set up Ohtani.

None of it worked in Game Five, as the Dodgers were only able to muster one run, a solo shot off the bat of Kiké Hernández.

Over the first five games, the Dodgers are a combined 6-for-30 with runners in scoring position, leaving a whopping 40 men on base, after ranking third overall in the same situation during the regular season.

The offense has become too home run reliant, with 46% of their runs this Series coming via the homer. The approach at the plate has been dreadful, leading to a rookie pitcher with under eight career starts under his belt tossing seven innings and setting a new MLB record in the World Series with 12 strikeouts.

At the center of it all is shortstop Mookie Betts, who is hitting just .130 (3-for-23) with zero extra-base hits or RBIs in the World Series, and hitting just .234 with a .648 OPS across the postseason.

“I don’t want to speak for anybody else, but for me, personally, I’ve just been terrible,” Betts said. “I’ve been terrible and I wish it was from lack of effort, I really do, but it’s not. So, I don’t have any answers.”

Hopefully, the answers for Betts and the Dodgers will come on Friday; otherwise, this Series will end in six games.

Only Sasaki & Ohtani Should Be Used in the Bullpen

If the Dodgers can get a lead, and Yamamoto can go seven-plus innings, the only arms Dave Roberts should go to are right-handers Roki Sasaki and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

Over the next two potential games, the bullpen should consist entirely of starters, a combination of Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, Sasaki, and even Snell, who floated the idea he would see the Jays lineup again in Game Seven during his postgame interview.

The Dodgers’ rotation ERA in the postseason is 2.54. The bullpen ERA is 4.56, so the team needs to use its strength over the next two nights if it wants any shot at winning.

The Dodgers’ bullpen showed resilience in Game 3, pitching 11 scoreless innings to conclude the 18-inning marathon. However, relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, whom the Dodgers signed last offseason for a total of $85 million, did not make the playoff roster.

Another free-agent signing, right-hander Blake Treinen, who was signed for $22 million, has struggled since being heavily used in last year’s postseason.

Another important contributor from the 2024 champions, right-handed Evan Phillips, needed Tommy John surgery. Additionally, left-handed Alex Vesia was unavailable for this Series because of a family emergency. The only reliever the Dodgers acquired at the deadline, right-handed Brock Stewart, pitched just four times before being placed on the injured list with a shoulder strain.

To put it in simple terms, the Dodgers have virtually no options that Roberts can trust in almost any given situation unless it’s a blowout.

Ohtani volunteered himself for a role in the bullpen after the Dodgers’ Game Four loss, and Roberts confirmed that would be the case after having a conversation with Ohtani.

“When you’re talking about Game Six, potentially Game Seven of the World Series, all hands on deck,” Roberts said on Wednesday afternoon. “So we’ll see where that goes.”

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