Cody Snavely
It was no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers’ failure to complete their ultimate goal of winning a World Series last year was largely due to the pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
In a series of three games, the Dodgers starting rotation grappled with an earned run average of over sixty. Even the formidable Clayton Kershaw, battling with an injured shoulder, couldn’t escape the first inning of game one in the NLDS.
Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn did not fare better. Each starter could not give the Dodgers multiple clean innings, and because of that, the offense was playing catchup for the entire series.
As we all know, the Dodgers would be shocked and lose the series in three games to the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks, who would shock the world by getting their own World Series appearance, falling to the Texas Rangers in five games.
The Dodgers front office, led by Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes, had to fix a pitching delma that had been fine in years past. They did that and more, plugging holes with trades and free agent signings, bringing us to 2024 when the pitching staff went 180° compared to 2023.
The underwhelming 2023 starting rotation
At the beginning of the 2023 season, the Dodgers’ Opening Day starting rotation included Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, and Noah Syndergaard.
Flash forward a few months, and Gonsolin and May’s seasons would end with both players receiving Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard would be thrown out of Los Angeles after posting a 7.16 ERA in 55.1 innings.
Urías would have his season end with yet another domestic allegation that led to his arrest, destroying his Major League Baseball career, and Kershaw would battle shoulder issues that came to bite him in the end.
However, the Dodgers’ rotation would get a silver lining with the debut of highly touted pitching prospect Bobby Miller. Miller would fill the void in the rotation, going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and earning himself a start in October as the Dodgers’ game-two starter.
Overall, the Dodgers posted some of the worst numbers as a collective unit, ranking 20th in the majors with a 4.57 ERA. They were similarly in the bottom third in the majors in both ERA+ and FanGraphs WAR. The Dodgers ranked in the top two and the top three in ERA every year in the previous six seasons.
The Dodgers rotation ran out of gas once October hit, and the “three-headed monster” of Kershaw, Miller, and Lance Lynn was not enough to stop a young, hungry Diamondbacks offense.
The surprisingly effective 2023 bullpen
One of the first massive problems that plagued Los Angeles early in the season was the disastrous start the bullpen had in the first half.
The Dodgers bullpen had a collective ERA of 5.14 in the first half of play, the highest in Los Angeles’s history. This was a massive reason the team struggled in the first few months of play.
However, the arrival of Ryan Brasier, a proper setup man, to right-handed closer Evan Phillips transformed the dynamics of the bullpen. After Brasier’s arrival, relievers went 24-11 with a 2.28 ERA — the next-best mark was Milwaukee’s 2.85 ERA — and 29 saves in 37 chances.
Their strikeout rate slipped to 9.13 per nine innings, but they lowered their walk rate to 2.78 per nine innings, second-best in the league, their home run rate to a major league-best 0.73 per nine innings, and their batting average against to an MLB-best .197.
The Dodgers moved from 29th to third place with a full-season bullpen ERA of 3.42 entering the National League Division Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They allowed only 53 of 203 inherited baserunners (26%) to score, tied for the third-best mark in baseball.
The Dodgers bullpen was the lone bright spot in the NLDS, which kept the games “close” as the already mentioned starting rotation was ineffective in their starts.
The revamped 2024 starting rotation
The Dodgers’ massive offseason spending has paid off so far, with Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and James Paxton all contributing to the team’s overall success.
Kicking off with Glasnow, he has by far and away been the Dodgers’ new “ace,” leading the charge with a 6-2 record, 2.90 ERA, 0.860 WHIP, 161 ERA+, 81 SO (leads league) in 62 innings pitched.
Glasnow kicked off the 2024 season by starting both the Souel Korea series and the domestic Opening Day and has been the leader in most team pitching categories.
The biggest question for Glasnow has always been his health, as he has battled multiple arm injuries throughout his career. However, 2023 was the healthiest season of his career so far, throwing 120 innings, but with him being an impending free agent, the Tampa Bay Rays decided to trade the right-hander for more controllable talent.
The Dodgers would oblige by sending right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca to the Rays in a trade package that included Glasnow. The Dodgers were already confident in what they received, so they inked Glasnow for a five-year, $136.5 million contract extension.
The next big contract was Yamamoto, who signed the massive 12-year $325 million contract with the Dodgers over the winter. However, the 2024 regular season could not have started worse for the rookie as he could not go more than one inning, allowing five earned runs.
Since that start, Yamamoto has shown us who he really is and why he was worth that massive contract. Over his last eight starts, Yamamoto is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.38 and 59 strikeouts, lowering his season ERA to 3.17.
The most significant change with Yamamoto is the introduction of a slider that mixes well with the other pitches in his arsenal, making it seven pitches total, according to Baseball Savant.
However, it is not just the frontend high dollar pitchers that are getting it done for the rotation they are getting it from top to bottom. Two of those anchors in the backend of the rotation are right-hander Gavin Stone and left-handed veteran James Paxton.
Stone has had an excellent start to begin his 2024 season, making the most of his opportunity in the fifth spot in the rotation after Emmet Sheehan was shut down early back in March.
Stone, 25, made his Major League debut early last season, and his first taste of the big leagues was less than to be desired, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 31 innings. Stone’s name was thrown around in trade rumors by insiders and fans alike; however, the Dodgers held on to the righty for good reason, which is now paying off.
In fourteen innings during Spring Training, Stone pitched to a 3.21 ERA, striking out thirteen batters and having a 0.79 WHIP, earning him the final spot in the rotation, a position he has also held on to. Overall, Stone has a 3.27 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, and 124 ERA+ in 44 innings pitched.
As for James Paxton he provides the Dodgers rotation with a much needed left-handed bridge or breakup the right-handed starters in the rotation something the Dodgers have not had to worry about in years having Clayton Kershaw hold that role for over a decade.
However, Paxton has given them more than just a left-handed arm but has been a very productive addition to the roster. So far in 2024 Paxton is undefeated in eight starts with a 5-0 record and a 2.84 ERA.
The two issues for Paxton so far have been the walks and the lack of strikeouts. So far Paxton has issued 24 free passes on balls, a 1.376 WHIP, and a 5.16 FIP which is not good to put it lightly.
Despite all this the Dodgers continue to have one of the best rotations in baseball which is a problem they struggled with since the 2022 season where their lack of experience and depth came back to bite them come October.
So far in 2024 the Dodgers starting rotation ranks:
- 5th in ERA (3.24) (20th in 2023)
- 6th in WHIP (1.13) (7th in 2023)
- 9th in IP (261.0) (22nd in 2023)
- 8th in SO (249) (23rd in 2023)
Reinforcements on the way?
The Dodgers’ starting five could compete with any team’s starting rotation. They are among the top five in ERA and have one of the current favorites for the National League Cy Young in Tyler Glasnow. However, as the season goes on, the Dodgers are expecting more pitchers to return from the IL, which could make a massive difference come October.
The first reinforcement that is close to returning is Dodgers’ young flame thrower Bobby Miller, who is currently in Arizona throwing bullpens, facing live hitters, and three-inning sim games.
Miller, who has been out since April 15th due to shoulder inflammation, will likely need a few rehab starts before he returns to the major league level. Miller was a pivotal piece in the Dodgers’ rotation during the 2023 season, which saw the then 24-year-old go 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA.
The next reinforcement would be Dodgers left-handed veteran and guaranteed Hall-of-Fame pitcher Clayton Kershaw, who has been rehabbing from his offseason shoulder surgery.
Kershaw, who re-signed with the Dodgers just before spring training, stated that he is aiming for a “mid-summer” return, which could be anywhere from July to late August. However, over the past two weeks, Kershaw has begun throwing off a mound, with each session expected to implement more off-speed.
The next step for Kershaw and the Dodgers would be for the southpaw to face live hitters and then, in the end, go on a possible lengthy rehab assignment to build up his arm for the major league level, similar to Walker Buehler.
Kershaw went 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA in 2023, but his season ended on a sour note after months of an injured shoulder caught up with him and the Dodgers, who were bounced from the NLDS.
Adding to the team’s uncertainty is the potential return of right-handed pitcher Dustin May. May, who has been out due to his second Tommy John Surgery since early last season, represents a longshot reinforcement in the rotation.
There is no question that Dustin May has the nastiest stuff on the roster but his health has been a huge red flag to begin his career. Since his debut season in 2019, May has only been able to pitch a total of 191.2 innings.
The redheaded, lanky flame thrower is set to possibly return in September, and if he does, I imagine it will be a bullpen role.
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