Turner is an elite replacement for Seager

LOS ANGELES — So let’s be honest. November 29th was not a great day to be a Dodger fan. Within the span of twelve hours, the team lost not only Max Scherzer to the Mets but also Corey Seager. On Monday afternoon, it was announced that the free agent Seager had signed a lucrative deal with the Texas Rangers (of all people) for ten years and well north of 300 million dollars.

Coupled with Marcus Semien and other deals they’ve made down in Arlington, the Rangers are making real noises this off-season. Perhaps it will be enough to lure hometown boy Clayton Kershaw back to north Texas, but let’s hope not. However, that is a topic for another post. Today, I come on a mission of peace, to calm the jangled nerves of bummed out Dodger fans who watched with horror as two of our best pieces exited stage right. I’ve already posted about what the loss of Scherzer might mean to the team. Let’s focus this post on what a post-Corey Dodger landscape will look like in 2022 and beyond.

So, barring any blockbuster deals, it looks like Trea Turner will be the everyday shortstop in 2022. This will put Gavin Lux (or perhaps Chris Taylor) at second, along with JT and Muncy on the corners. That is still a pretty darn good infield, especially if Lux’s late season surge in offensive production can be sustained throughout the season. But I would argue that even Trea Turner is every bit as elite a talent as Corey Seager. Let’s crunch the numbers a bit.

Both players are in a similar age cohort. Seager is a few months younger than Turner, but they are both in the prime of their careers, being 28 on Opening Day of next season. Both shortstops were late season call-ups in 2015, and had a full rookie year the following season. Dodger fans know well that Seager was ROY in 2016, but Turner didn’t become an everyday player until 2018. However, even in 2016, Turner was impressive, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting with a .342 batting average over 324 at-bats.

Over the following four seasons, Turner passed Seager in both games and plate appearances, mostly because of Seager’s two extended stays on the IL, first in 2018, when he was limited to only 26 games, and then in 2021, when a mid-season wrist injury kept him off of the field for most of the summer. At this writing, Turner has about 300 more career at-bats than Seager. Over that time, Turner has compiled a lifetime WAR of 24.7 while Seager trails slightly with 21.3. Seager has more home runs than Turner, but it’s not a significant difference: 108- 103.

However, believe it or not, there are two categories in which Turner is a major upgrade to Seager: defense and base running. Turner is no gold glover, but returning him to shortstop will help things a bit. Corey Seager, bless his heart, is not a great defender. I would say it’s a moderate increase in defense with Turner on the field.

On the bases, however, it’s a completely different story. Turner’s base running is elite. His sprint speed is second in all of MLB, trailing only the seldom-used Tim Locastro. Seager on the other hand is a big dude, and runs like it. He’s rated at only the 39th percentile in the league for speed and stole just one base all of 2021. Contrast this with Turner, who managed to swipe 32 bases last season, good for the lead in all of the National League. With him and Mookie Betts at the top of the lineup, you could see a lot of action on the paths next season, similar to the aggressive approach Dave Roberts showed in the postseason last year.

Clearly, a team with Corey Seager on it is better than one without him, but if we can see continued improvement from Gavin Lux, I don’t think this loss will be the end of the world. It frees up a whole mess of money that could be spent elsewhere. Andrew Friedman, the ball is in your court.