Dodgers Analysis: Sorry, Schwarbs, the MVP belongs to Shohei this year

LOS ANGELES — Every September, the MVP chatter ramps up, and this year’s National League race has a familiar twist: Shohei Ohtani vs. whoever is hot enough to at least try to challenge him. In 2025, that challenger is Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber. And make no mistake — Schwarber is having a monster year. The home run totals, the RBIs, the fireworks every time his bat meets ball all make him one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

But here’s the thing: the MVP is about value. And when you stack Schwarber’s slugging season against what Ohtani is doing in Los Angeles, it really should be no contest. Shohei is not just slugging almost as much as Schwarber — he’s also taking the mound every fifth or sixth day and giving the Dodgers valuable innings. That’s the difference between a great hitter and the most valuable player in the game.

Schwarber’s Monster Bat

Let’s give Schwarber his due first. The Phillies slugger has been a wrecking ball this season, and the box scores back it up:

• Batting average: .244
• Home runs: 53 (second in MLB)
• RBIs: 128 (league-leading)
• OPS: .943

When Schwarber connects, he changes games. He’s the heart of the Phillies’ offense, and his ability to drive in runs has kept Philadelphia in contention all season. By the traditional counting stats, his case looks airtight. Fifty-plus home runs and leading the league in RBIs will always grab attention.

If we were simply voting for the “best slugger,” Schwarber might have the upper hand.

Shohei’s Two-Way Brilliance

But then there’s Shohei Ohtani. And Ohtani isn’t competing for “best slugger.” He’s competing for “most valuable.”

At the plate, Ohtani is right there with Schwarber:

• Batting average: .280
• Home runs: 49
• RBIs: around 93
• OPS: flirting with or above 1.000

So Ohtani’s offensive line is nearly as strong, and in some ways even more complete. He doesn’t just hit for power — he gets on base, runs well, and hits for average at a level Schwarber doesn’t.

And then there’s the pitching:

• Innings pitched: 36
• Strikeouts: 49
• ERA: 3.75
• WHIP: 1.19

Are those Cy Young numbers? No. But they don’t have to be. He got a late start and was being handled by the Dodgers brass with kid gloves. Ohtani’s contributions on the mound still matter — they’re innings where he’s preventing runs and giving the bullpen a rest, while still being one of the league’s most dangerous bats on days he doesn’t pitch. That’s double the impact.

The WAR Divide

If there’s one stat that crystallizes the MVP debate, it’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement), because WAR tries to answer the actual MVP question: how many wins does this player add to his team compared to a replacement-level player?

Here’s the snapshot:

• Shohei Ohtani: ~8.0 WAR (≈6.7 from hitting, 1.4 from pitching)
• Kyle Schwarber: ~4.7 WAR, all from offense

That’s a massive gap. Ohtani is nearly double Schwarber in value. Even if Schwarber finishes strong and pushes his WAR closer to 6.0, Ohtani will almost certainly still clear 8.5 or higher.

That’s the difference between an MVP season and a great hitting season.

The Voters’ Dilemma: Shohei Fatigue?

So why is this even a debate? If the numbers say Ohtani, if the WAR says Ohtani, if the two-way brilliance screams Ohtani, then why are we even talking about Schwarber?

Because of something that isn’t in the stat sheet: voter fatigue.

Writers sometimes get tired of giving the same player the award year after year. Ohtani already won MVP in the American League twice with the Angels. He’s in position to win back-to-back MVPs in the National League now with the Dodgers. Some voters may feel the need to “spread the wealth” or tell a different story. Schwarber could benefit from that sentiment — especially if he ends the season with gaudier home run and RBI totals.

But voter fatigue is not a baseball stat. It’s not value. And it shouldn’t outweigh the numbers.

Why Shohei Should Win

Here’s why Ohtani should still run away with the MVP:

1. Two-way dominance: Even if his pitching is only average, no one else is even doing it. That alone makes his WAR and his impact historic.
2. Balanced offensive profile: Schwarber hits more home runs, but Ohtani hits for a better average, gets on base more, and has similar slugging power. Schwarber’s OPS is excellent; Ohtani’s is elite.
3. WAR gap: Ohtani’s WAR being almost double Schwarber’s says it all. MVP isn’t just about counting home runs — it’s about who gives their team the most chances to win. Ohtani does that in multiple dimensions.
4. Team impact: With the Dodgers chasing a first-round bye, Ohtani’s presence in both the lineup and the rotation carries weight. He’s not just padding stats — he’s carrying a contender.

Schwarber’s Only Path

For Schwarber to seriously win, he’d need one of two things:

• An offensive explosion in the final week that pushes him past 60 home runs and 140 RBIs, while Ohtani cools off (not likely).
• Narrative momentum that voters embrace — “Schwarber’s career year” vs. “Ohtani fatigue.”

But even then, the WAR gap and two-way value will be hard to ignore.

Final Word

Kyle Schwarber deserves applause for one of the best hitting seasons in baseball. But the MVP isn’t about applause. It’s about value. And when you compare the two players side by side — the raw stats, the WAR, the two-way contributions — it should be no contest.

Unless voters decide they’ve seen enough of Ohtani, the 2025 MVP race is already over. Shohei Ohtani isn’t just the most valuable player in the league. He’s the most valuable player in baseball history, every year he’s healthy.

And once again, he’s proving it in Dodger Blue.

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