Dodgers Analysis: The Perplexing Case of Roki Sasaki

LOS ANGELES — Curiouser and Curiouser. When the Dodgers landed Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki this past winter, the signing was heralded as yet another coup by a front office that has built a reputation for securing elite international talent. With his triple-digit fastball and devastating splitter, Sasaki arrived with expectations of dominance, following the path blazed by Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
But halfway through June, Sasaki’s rookie season has become defined not by breakout brilliance, but by ambiguity. First came the drop in velocity. Then came the inconsistent command. Now comes the mystery.
After being placed on the 15-day injured list last month with what the team called a right shoulder impingement, Sasaki has yet to resume throwing. And the reasons why — or rather, the reasons behind the reasons — remain elusive.
“He’s just not feeling that he can kind of ramp it up,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said on Sunday. “So I gather that we’re trying to hold the baseball a little bit until he feels like we can get going again.”
Roberts made clear that the team has already done imaging on the shoulder and found no structural damage. No new scans are planned. “Right now, it’s kind of a comfort thing for him and a confidence thing,” Roberts said. “I don’t think it’s pain. It’s tightness. It could be just not feeling strong.”
That subtle shift — from physical ailment to mental barrier — marks a critical turning point in the Dodgers’ handling of Sasaki. This isn’t just about inflammation or a mechanical flaw. It’s about trust in the body. And for a 23-year-old adjusting to a new country, a new league, and a new level of scrutiny, that matters.
When Performance Meets Pressure
Sasaki was never a sure thing from a durability standpoint. Even during his dominant run with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Nippon Professional Baseball, he never made more than 20 starts in a season. His career high in innings? Just 129. In fact, shoulder discomfort and an oblique injury have followed him since at least 2023.
What the Dodgers hoped to manage physically may now require a more patient approach mentally.
Asked whether Sasaki’s season is in jeopardy, Roberts admitted it’s time to proceed as if the team might not get much more out of him in 2025. “I think that’s fair,” Roberts said. “Being thrust here into this environment was a big undertaking for him. And now you layer in the health part of it, and then you layer in he’s a starting pitcher — the buildup, you know, what that entails — I think the prudent way to go about it is to plan on life without him this year.”
That doesn’t mean the organization has lost hope. Roberts said Sasaki remains in good spirits and is active in the weight room, maintaining shoulder mobility and building strength. But he hasn’t played catch. And he won’t until he’s ready — when he’s ready.
A Familiar Pattern?
Sasaki is not the first Japanese star to struggle with the transition to Major League Baseball, especially on the pitching side. While Ohtani and Yamamoto have largely delivered on the hype, other elite arms from Japan have faced similar hurdles.
Daisuke Matsuzaka dazzled early with the Red Sox before injuries and control issues plagued his stateside career. Masahiro Tanaka had success but was never quite the same after suffering a partial UCL tear in his first season. More recently, Kenta Maeda had moments of brilliance with the Dodgers and Twins but battled inconsistency and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Not to mention, perhaps the biggest washout in the history of the New York Yankees, Hideki Irabu.
Irabu was a highly touted Japanese pitcher who joined the New York Yankees in 1997 amid intense media scrutiny and high expectations but struggled with inconsistency and criticism throughout his MLB career. He later pitched for the Expos and Rangers before returning to Japan, never fully regaining the dominance he once showed in Nippon Professional Baseball. Tragically, Irabu died by suicide in 2011 at the age of 42, after years of personal and professional challenges.
In Sasaki’s case, the early warning signs — diminished fastball velocity (down 3–4 mph from his peak in Japan), erratic command (22 walks to 24 strikeouts), and inefficient outings (averaging fewer than 4.1 innings per start) — have all pointed to an athlete struggling to bridge the gap between potential and performance.
And now, uncertainty over whether he can trust his shoulder complicates that equation further.
Between the Lines — and Between the Ears
In his last media availability before the IL stint, Sasaki described his discomfort not as pain, but as his shoulder “not moving in the ideal way.” He repeatedly expressed doubt over whether the issue was truly physical. “It’s hard to tell if that’s the main factor,” he said, referring to his recent drop in performance.
That line — “it’s hard to tell” — has become the recurring theme.
The Dodgers have long taken pride in their player development infrastructure, one that includes not just biomechanical labs and elite trainers, but cultural liaisons and mental health professionals. They knew signing Sasaki was not just a baseball investment, but a human one.
As Roberts put it, “Our goal is to get him healthy, get him strong, make sure his delivery is sound, and get him to pitch for us.”
That may take time. And patience. And understanding that there are no easy answers when it comes to the shoulder — or the psyche.
What Comes Next
For now, the Dodgers are leaning on Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw (who dazzled on Saturday), and a patchwork rotation that includes Dustin May, Ben Casparius, and occasionally Landon Knack, none of whom were on anyone’s Bingo card at the beginning of the season. With Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell also shelved, the rotation has become a test of organizational depth.
In Sasaki’s case, the hope remains that his talent will shine through eventually — but maybe not this year. The franchise’s commitment to “no expectations on timeline,” as Roberts emphasized, is a signal that the long-term outlook takes precedence.
There’s no shame in that. The pressure on Sasaki — from fans, media, and internal expectations — has been immense. But mental blocks, performance anxiety, and unfamiliar surroundings can’t be treated with a cortisone injection.
Sometimes the hardest part of a comeback isn’t about pain. It’s about trust. And that’s where Roki Sasaki finds himself now.
Let him find his way back. On his own terms. The Dodgers, wisely, seem willing to wait.
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