Cody Snavely
The Los Angeles Dodgers officially signed the 23-year-old Japanese phenom in Wednesday’s introductory press conference. Now, the team and Sasaki can focus on the upcoming 2025 season.
According to Los Angeles Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, the plan for Sasaki is to get him into the starting rotation right away rather than limit his innings at the start. But like many international signings, Sasaki does not come without risk.
Sasaki Joins a Dodgers Team at the Epicenter of the Arm/Elbow Epidemic
After the 2023 season ended on a sour note, not largely due to the starting pitching, which was an issue all season, the Dodgers front office set out to address the significant issue at hand.
We all know how the story goes: the Dodgers proceeded to add multiple key impact starters, such as trading for right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow, signing veteran lefty James Paxton, and putting in the winning bid on Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Despite all that, the Dodgers still stared down the barrel of the injury bug, nearly derailing their championship season. Glasnow’s season ended prematurely due to an elbow issue, standout rookie Gavin Stone‘s ended due to shoulder inflammation, Yamamoto missed nearly two months with his own injury, and Paxton was shipped off to Boston.
Overall, in 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers used nineteen different starting pitchers, which was by far the most in baseball this season. But despite all odds, the Dodgers still managed to win the National League West, finish with the best record in Major League Baseball, winning the National League Pennant, and defeat the New York Yankees in the 2024 World Series with just three starting pitchers (Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Walker Buehler) and a bullpen that started four games winning two of them.
While it was an unorthodox route to the franchise’s eighth World Series title, it is something they’ll hope to avoid this time around.
Enter the 2025 offseason, where the Dodgers added two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a massive 5-year, $182 million deal and expect Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin to all return to the rotation, paving the way for Sasaki to enter into a familiar six-man rotation.
However, even with the added depth, the Dodgers are at the forefront of a significant issue in Major League Baseball: arm and elbow injuries at an all-time high.
At the beginning of the season, Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times wrote an article about the Dodgers’ role in the recent pitching injury epidemic. In it, Harris interviewed former Dodgers star Walker Buehler, who shared his story.
According to the article, Buehler’s story highlights the dilemma facing many pitchers in today’s data-driven, velocity-obsessed game. In Buehler’s own words, “There’s some cost-benefit to it.” His success is undeniable, but it came at a physical price that now leaves his future uncertain. Harris notes that Buehler crossed the bridge to major league success, but “it came with a price.”
The Dodgers, more than any other team, have been in the eye of this storm, suffering a rash of pitching injuries over the past few seasons. Since 2021, they’ve had 98 injured-list stints for pitchers, more than any other MLB team in mid-May, and has only gone up through the course of the regular season.
A large number of their pitchers, both veterans and prospects, have undergone major surgeries, particularly Tommy John procedures. The injuries have repeatedly derailed the team’s hopes, contributing to three straight early postseason exits before the team put it all together this past year.
However, even with Sasaki in the mix, we must address the elephant in the room: his health and ability to accumulate innings during his four years in the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB).
Despite Sasaki’s elite 2.10 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9, he only achieved that in a combined 394.2 innings pitched in four seasons. His career-high came during the 2022 year when the righty tossed 129.1 innings.
However, the Dodgers do not need Sasaki to be that “innings eater” who lost today’s game; they just need him to take his time and stay healthy.
Mechanics Were an Issue in His Final NPB Season
The official posting of Rōki Sasaki is a day that many Dodgers executives have been waiting for. The 23-year-old righty was considered by many to be one of the best pitching prospects in Major League Baseball history, rivaling recent young pitcher Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
That hype is for a good reason. Sasaki, despite his short stint in professional baseball in Japan, was one of the world’s best pitchers. His multiple pitches, graded at seventy or eighty, headlined by his disgusting splitter, were among the best in the game.
The splitter, Sasaki’s marquee pitch, grades out at an 80-grade pitch, throwing 28% of the time in the 2024 season; the splitter averaged 88 MPH, CSW% 35%, and a Strike% of 53%.
However, the sample size over the last three seasons has shown some dips in performance, which gave some teams pause in their pursuit of the right-hander.
This past season, Sasaki tossed 111.0 innings but saw increased damage to a number of his pitches and saw his numbers balloon across the board, such as new career-worst in ERA (2.35), BB/9 (2.6), and K/9 (10.5). However, the most glaring issue was the noticeable 2.5 MPH dip in velocity.
| Velocity | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Fastball | 98.3 | 98.9 | 96.9 |
| Splitter | 89.1 | 89.5 | 88.2 |
| Slider | 87.7 | 87.5 | 83.6 |
| Curveball | 79.6 | 79.5 | 76 |
| Rōki Sasaki | ERA | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2022 | 2.02 | 1.6 | 12.0 |
| 2023 | 1.78 | 1.7 | 13.4 |
| 2024 | 2.35 | 2.6 | 10.5 |
The noticeable spike from the 2023 season to 2024 was so apparent to Sasaki that, according to sources with The Athletic, Sasaki asked interested teams to explain why he had a dip in velocity and what they could do to restore it to its former state.
However, Lance Brozdowski, pitching guru and player development analyst for Marquee Sports Network, explains that one logical reason Sasaki’s velocity and performance took a hit in 2024 compared to 2023 is a straightforward flaw in his delivery.
Lance argues that the noticeable 6-inch extension increase on Sasaki’s stride could explain the downtick in mechanics. Lance further explains that the over-extension is essentially causing Rōki to lose his base, where his power comes from, to be able to throw 100+ MPH.
As explained in The Athletic article, Sasaki worked with teams to see how they could fix his dip in fastball velocity. Lance’s overextension was at the forefront of that. The data also backs these claims.
| Rōki Sasaki | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Fastball | 56% | 50% | 46% |
| Splitter | 34% | 35% | 28% |
| Slider | 5% | 13% | 26% |
| Curveball | 5% | — | — |
Sasaki’s struggles with his extension also affected his pitch selection in games, as shown in the chart above and showcased by his jump in BB/9 at 2.6. The righty was falling behind in counts, walking more batters, and becoming more predictable at the plate.
However, now Sasaki joins a Los Angeles Dodgers organization that is considered one of the best in terms of pitching development and scouting, which will undoubtedly help him revert back to the 2022/2023 self.
What to Expect in 2025?
Now that Sasaki has inked his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, what can we expect from the rookie righty?
For starters, Sasaki, due to international hype and being an overwhelming World Series favorite, all eyes will be on him throughout the season, no matter what role he serves for the Dodgers. The expectations from fans and those around the league will demand excellence immediately.
However, it is best to hamper those expectations and be more realistic as Sasaki transitions from Japan to Major League Baseball and will go through some growing pains.
Still, FanGraphs has some decent projections for the new number-one prospect in Major League Baseball according to MLB Pipeline’s Top 100.
Sasaki is projected to start twenty-four games and post a 3.30 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 31.6 K%, 2.83 BB/9, and 3.4 fWAR in 139.0 innings pitched, which is tremendous for a first season.
Sasaki will also slot into a projected six-man rotation, similar to his time in the NPB in Japan, which will benefit him greatly. The Dodgers’ pitching depth also allows them to monitor his workload and ensure they can have Sasaki pitch meaningful games in October when the stars shine brightest.
When the teams break for Camelback Ranch next month, all eyes will be on the newest ace from Japan, and his first season is going to be nothing short of electric as the Dodgers look to begin their road to becoming repeat champions.
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