Dodgers Analysis: To Secure a First-Round Bye, a Sweep of Phils is a Must

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers return to Chavez Ravine on Monday night for their final homestand of the regular season, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by 4.5 games for the National League’s second seed, Los Angeles has little margin for error. If the Dodgers want a realistic shot at avoiding the Wild Card round, they’ll need to sweep this three-game set against Philadelphia.

Anything short of that, and the math becomes nearly impossible.

The Math Problem

The Dodgers have been here before. A strong September push has put them in contention, but the deficit remains daunting. At 4.5 games back with less than two weeks to go, there’s no room left for “just win the series.” Sweeping the Phillies is the only way to keep the dream alive.

Why? Because of what happens after this week. Once Philadelphia leaves Los Angeles, their schedule becomes considerably easier. They’ll face Arizona—always a tough opponent—but then finish with Miami and Minnesota, two teams that have struggled mightily down the stretch. It’s not hard to imagine the Phillies piling up wins in those final six games.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t have that luxury. Their closing stretch is brutal: three games each against San Francisco, Arizona, and Seattle. All three opponents are either in playoff position or on the bubble, and all will be playing with urgency. Even if the Dodgers sweep the Phillies, they’ll need to keep winning against that gauntlet while hoping Philadelphia stumbles. That’s a heavy lift.

Do They Even Want It?

Which leads to a bigger question: do the Dodgers even want the bye?

On paper, the answer is obvious. Skipping the Wild Card round means rest, fewer chances for injury, and avoiding the randomness of a short series. But history complicates the story. In both 2022 and 2023, the Dodgers entered the postseason with the bye, and both times they looked sluggish after the layoff. Arizona stunned them in the NLDS in 2023, while San Diego did the same the year before.

That track record has led some fans to wonder whether momentum matters more than rest. Baseball is a game of rhythm, of daily repetition. Too much downtime can interrupt timing at the plate and disrupt the pitching staff’s groove.

But there’s a counterpoint. The Dodgers finally proved last year that the bye curse can be broken. They survived a tense NLDS against San Diego, steadied themselves, and used that momentum as a springboard to capture the World Series. Even if they looked rusty at times and had to rally from a 1-2 deficit, they showed that with the right mix of depth and resilience, it’s possible to turn rest into reward.

The Case for the Bye

Still, it’s hard to dismiss the advantages of securing the bye. October baseball is brutal in its unpredictability. Anything can happen in a three-game Wild Card series. One bad outing from a starter, one unlucky bounce, one blown call—suddenly a great team’s season is over.

That’s the risk the Dodgers face if they can’t catch Philadelphia. With the way Tanner Scott has been up-and-down, or the offense has gone cold on occassion with runners in scoring position, do you really want to roll the dice in a winner-take-all scenario against a hungry Wild Card club? A bye at least guarantees you skip that uncertainty.

So while the Dodgers’ playoff history with the bye may not always be encouraging, the alternative comes with dangers of its own.

Rotation Strategy

Perhaps the better way to look at it is this: play to win, but prioritize getting the rotation lined up for October. Dave Roberts has Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, and Blake Snell scheduled to face the Phillies, giving fans a look at how the Dodgers’ front-end pitching stacks up against a fellow contender. After that, the focus might shift toward ensuring Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are rested, healthy, and ready for Game 1—wherever that happens to be.

The Dodgers can’t control what the Phillies do against Miami and Minnesota. What they can control is entering October with their pitching staff organized and their bats as sharp as possible.

Recent Momentum

The Dodgers have shown flashes of being that October-ready team. Mookie Betts has been scorching at the plate in recent weeks, reminding everyone why he remains the team’s spark plug. Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Shohei Ohtani have all provided big moments, and the return of Max Muncy and Tommy Edman adds depth to the lineup. On the pitching side, Snell has delivered quality starts in back-to-back outings, and Glasnow showed grit in his most recent turn despite shaky command early.

But inconsistency has plagued this team as much as it has propelled them. For every offensive explosion like Saturday’s 13-run outburst in San Francisco, there have been nights when timely hits never came. The same goes for the bullpen, which can look airtight one game and spring leaks the next.

That’s why this series against Philadelphia feels like a litmus test. If the Dodgers can put together three complete performances, they’ll not only keep the bye in play but also build momentum for the postseason.

The Matchups

The stage is set for an October-like atmosphere at Dodger Stadium. Sheehan takes the ball Monday against Ranger Suárez. Ohtani follows on Tuesday, facing Cristopher Sánchez. Snell wraps up the set on Wednesday against Jesús Luzardo.

These aren’t just regular season games—they’re playoff previews. The Phillies are a battle-tested club with power, pitching, and postseason pedigree. The Dodgers are trying to prove they’re more than their recent October disappointments. Fans at Chavez Ravine will get a front-row seat to see how the two heavyweights measure up.

Sidebar: Bye Teams Haven’t Thrived

The Dodgers aren’t alone in their unease with the bye. Since MLB expanded the postseason in 2022 and granted the top two seeds in each league a first-round pass, those teams have largely underperformed.

In the National League, the Braves, Mets, and Dodgers (in 2022 and 2023) all bowed out earlier than expected, while Wild Card clubs like Philadelphia and Arizona made deep runs all the way to the World Series. In the American League, Houston was the only bye team to advance past the Division Series during those early years.

The one big exception, of course, came just last season. The Dodgers held a bye in 2024, survived a tense NLDS against San Diego, and used that as a springboard to win the World Series. Even then, though, they looked rusty at the start of that San Diego series, needing every bit of veteran resolve to steady themselves.

The pattern is clear: while the bye offers rest, it often strips teams of momentum. Baseball’s rhythm-heavy nature means a five-day layoff can hurt timing at the plate and disrupt a pitching staff’s routine. Last year’s Dodgers proved it’s possible to navigate the challenges, but they also showed how delicate the balance can be.

Final Word

The Dodgers’ path to a first-round bye is steep, maybe even unrealistic. A sweep of the Phillies gives them life, but the closing schedule makes catching Philadelphia a tall order. And even if they do, there’s no guarantee the bye will serve them better than it has in the past.

But here’s the bottom line: anything can happen in October. One hot streak can carry a team through the gauntlet. One cold spell can end a season. That’s why the next three nights at Chavez Ravine matter so much. They’re not just about chasing Philadelphia—they’re about finding the identity this Dodgers team will carry into the postseason.

Fans have waited all year for meaningful baseball, and now it’s here. The final homestand begins, the playoff race tightens, and the Dodgers’ future comes into sharper focus. Whether they secure the bye or not, this week promises to be some of the most consequential baseball of 2025.

So, let’s go.

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