Cody Snavely
Entering the 2024 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the same goal in mind: to win the World Series.
And through the grind of a grueling 162-game regular season, the Dodgers won the National League West, defeated the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series, steamrolled the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series, and outplayed the New York Yankees in the World Series en route to the franchises eighth World Series Championship.
It was indeed a season to remember, but not for everyone. One player who was noticeably absent in October and most of the regular season was right-handed pitcher Bobby Miller, who, after a dominant 2023 rookie campaign, took a massive step back in his sophomore year. What went wrong with Miller in 2024, and what will his role be for the upcoming season?
2023 at a Glance
After winning a franchise record 111 games during the 2022 season but failing to move past the National League Division Series against their National League West rival, the San Diego Padres, the 2023 season was seen by many as a transition year.
However, a transition year in Los Angeles is unlike anywhere else in baseball. Were they competitive? Yes. Did they win their division and make the postseason? Yes. Was the goal to win the World Series still? Yes. Did they put their best foot forward in the 2023 offseason? It depends on who you ask.
For the most part, the Dodgers stayed quiet that winter. The team non-tendered former 2019 National League Most Valuable Player Cody Bellinger after back-to-back horrible seasons. They took a chance on recently DFA’d veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. They signed former National League West foe David Peralta and Mookie Betts‘ best friend from Boston, right-handed slugger J. D. Martinez, to one-year deals.
To solidify the rotation, they took an even greater risk by moving on from tumultuous righty Trevor Bauer, who had his Major League record suspension reduced. They signed the almighty Thor, also known as Noah Syndergaard, who, after a dominant start to his career, turned into a journeyman in the last three seasons.
And despite their best effort to reset their Luxury Tax, they were still just over the Competitive Balance Tax Threshold that season, which was set at $233 million (Dodgers ended the season with a $286.2 million CBT Payroll)
The Dodgers also opted to see what they had internally. James Outman, who briefly appeared in 2022, would now become the full-time center fielder. Trayce Thompson, who had revitalized his career since rejoining Los Angeles, was also given free rein.
On the pitching side, righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin were set to take another step forward in their careers while fellow righties Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone were waiting in the wings.
But after injuries to Dustin May and inconsistencies with Tony Gonsolin and Syndergaard, there were holes in the Dodgers rotation that needed to be filled.
Despite Gavin Stone making his Major League debut first, Bobby Miller made a lasting impact for the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers.
Miller, who was selected with the 29th pick in the 2020 Major League Baseball draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of Louisville, made his Major League debut just three seasons later on May 23rd against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. After spinning five innings and giving up four hits, one run, and one walk while striking out five, the righty would never look back.
Miller would start twenty-one more games for the Dodgers that season, finishing with an 11-4 record, 3.76 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 8.61 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 3.72 K/BB, and a 0.87 HR/9 along with nine quality starts while collecting 119 strikeouts in 124.1 innings pitched.
Regarding rookie starting pitchers, Miller ranked third in WAR (2.8) and top ten in ERA and FIP and, for most of the season, was in the conversation for a potential Rookie of the Year Award nod.
Throughout his career, Miller was carried by a plus fastball, which carried over to the Major League level. His fastball ranked in the 98th percentile for velocity and had a pitching run value of five, which was just under his ungodly sinker (six).
However, Miller’s true value was shown in the second half of the 2023 regular season. After multiple injuries to the starting rotation, including the lengthy loss of veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw, Miller became the Dodgers’ best pitcher, posting a 3.36 ERA in 80.1 innings pitched.
At season’s end, Miller proved his worth and earned a spot on the Dodgers’ 2023 National League Division Series roster. He was slated to start game two against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
But as we all know, the Dodgers were swiftly eliminated from the 2023 postseason, losing in three games to the eventual National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks. Miller pitched only 1.2 innings in game two, allowing three runs on four hits and putting the Dodgers in a 0-2 hole.
Miller’s 2023 rookie season was officially over. Still, with his potential seemingly unlocked, the Dodgers had big plans for the righty in his second season, even if the team added multiple rotation options over the winter.
2024 Struggles
The Los Angeles Dodgers had monstrous goals for the 2024 season, which is fair given that the team spent well over one billion dollars during the offseason.
While the Dodgers and President of Baseball Operations Andrew Freidman’s top goal was to bring in start two-way player Shohei Ohtani, the next glaring issue the Dodgers needed to address was the starting rotation depth.
Over the winter, Los Angeles brought in veteran lefty James Paxton on a one-year deal. They signed top international free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a massive 12-year, $325 million contract. Perhaps the most prominent move concerning righty Bobby Miller was when the team traded away fellow top pitching prospect Ryan Pepiot to the Tampa Bay Rays for volatile Tyler Glasnow.
The Dodgers’ decision to trade Pepiot opened the door for Miller to continue in the starting rotation, given all the additions made over the winter.
In his second year, Miller was set to take a massive step forward in his career and be the backbone in the bottom half of the Dodgers rotation that was headlined by Yamamoto, Glasnow, and eventually Kershaw. And in his first start of the regular season, it sure looked like that would be the case.
In his first start of the season at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, Miller tossed six shutout innings, allowing only two hits, one walk, and striking out a career-high eleven batters in what was arguably the best start of his young career.
However, that would be the last look of a dominant Bobby Miller we’d see the rest of the season. The sophomore right-hander’s next twelve starts were a disaster. He proceeded to post a 1-4 record, 9.54 ERA and allowed an absurd fifty-three runs. But what went wrong?
For starters, after his first two starts of the regular season, Miller was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a lingering shoulder injury. It was not the first time in his Dodgers tenure that he had endured shoulder discomfort. Prior to the start of the 2023 season, Miller was unavailable in spring training due to a bum right shoulder, which delayed the start of his minor league campaign.
Miller was officially placed on the injured list on April 10th and did not return until June 19th, but his stint at the Major League level did not last long. He was demoted to Triple-A OKC in July after a disastrous start in Philadelphia against the Phillies, during which he allowed ten hits, nine earned runs, and two home runs while walking three and only punching out two batters.
However, shoulder issues were not the only injury that plagued Miller this past season. In his second stint with the big league club, the righty confirmed to the media after his August 30th start that he’d been dealing with a left knee injury (plant leg) for the last few starts.
While Miller stated that the injuries were not the root of his struggles and did not use them as an excuse, they were realistically a massive problem he had to deal with in a frustrating season.
Injuries aside, many of Miller’s issues stemmed from control issues, which were highlighted by his 1.77 WHIP on the season. Last season, Miller had a 4.82 BB/9 and walked thirty batters in fifty-six innings.
The walks are more glaring when you look at Miller’s xFIP in counts. When Miller was ahead in count 0-2, the righty had a massive upper hand, holding opposing batters to an xFIP of 0.21, 0.08 FIP, and .439 OPS. However, the problem here is that Miller only got into 0-2 counts 6% of the time this past year.
Miller’s lack of command also significantly affected his pitching arsenal. With the righty falling behind so many counts this past season, he relied on his fastball, often throwing it 37.9% of the time compared to 28.9% in 2023.
However, unliked his rookie season, where his fastball had a pitch value of five, it was now one of the worst fastballs in baseball with a negative ten-run value. This was a common trend for Miller this past season as the quality of all his pitches decreased, having a negative run value for his change-up (-1), sinker (-7), curveball (-2), and slider (-6).
Not only was Miller using his fastball often, but it was also being demolished by opposing hitters with a 50.6 Hard-Hit percentage, meaning more than half the hitters were barreling up this pitch. However, the numbers get even worse for his curveball, which had a 61.9 Hard-Hit percentage, and his sinker at 55.6%.
| Bobby Miller | 2023 | 2024 |
| xBA | .229 | .296 |
| xSLG | .335 | .528 |
| WOBA | .283 | .411 |
| xWOBA | .286 | .394 |
| Hard-Hit % | 37.6% | 47.7% |
| K% | 23.6% | 20.2% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 11.6% |
| xERA | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| Exit Velocity | 88.3mph | 91.5mph |
However, Miller’s struggles at the Major League level weren’t unique; the 25-year-old also struggled in both of his minor league stints last season.
Overall, in Triple-A OKC, Miller posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, allowed thirty walks, and struck out twenty-seven hitters in 33.0 innings pitched. However, Miller still suffered from the same trends that got him demoted in the first place, which was his command.
Despite the lackluster season, many around the league and within the Dodgers organization believe that along with the injuries, Miller was also mechanically unsound with his delivery, which led to the lackluster results in what was supposed to be his breakout season.
Come October, Miller was an afterthought for the Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation that opted to roll with a three-headed horse in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler and their bullpen.
In the end, it worked, but if Los Angeles had a reliable Bobby Miller, you’d have to imagine their path to a World Series Championship would’ve been easier.
Outlook for 2025
Looking ahead at the 2025 season, as we’re less than one hundred days away from Opening Day, Bobby Miller’s role remains cloudy.
Despite winning the 2024 World Series in five games over the New York Yankees, the Dodgers decided to be aggressive this winter and bring in top left-handed starting pitcher Blake Snell, signing the southpaw to a 5-year, $182 million contract.
Snell will immediately be a top starter in the rotation, along with righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Tyler Glasnow, whose season ended prematurely last September due to elbow issues, will be on pace to start the season. And the Dodgers also expect righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin to return.
Although veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw remains unsigned, it is a league-wide assumption that he’ll return to Los Angeles for yet another season. And who is to say the Dodgers are done adding to the pitching department?
Despite Miller’s historically bad season, the righty has a lot of value both as a player and financially.
For starters, Miller is still under team control for several seasons as the right-hander is still under pre-arbitration status and will not be a free agent until after the 2029 regular season and is just estimated to make around $800 thousand or slightly above the league minimum for the 2025 season.
Baseball Trade Values, a web-based trade simulator, values Miller at $22.8 million, which is a decent chunk for someone who posted an ERA of over nine last season.
If the Dodgers decided to keep Miller, he’d be a great depth option if they suffer any more roster injuries, as they’ve seen the last three seasons. However, if the team wants to trade Miller, he has a decent amount of value to acquire a Major League-ready player.
If the team does keep Miller around, it’ll be interesting during spring training if he competes for a starting rotation spot, as while the Dodgers have continued to add, they have some huge question marks in their rotation depth.
Shohei Ohtani will finally return to the two-way player status that has made him an international icon, but he is coming off his second career Tommy John and offseason labrum surgery.
Glasnow’s injury history is well documented, and while he was able to avoid surgery, the team will likely be cautious with him and Yamamoto, who missed a huge chunk of the season with a shoulder issue.
Young right-handed pitchers Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, and River Ryan will miss most or all of the upcoming season as they recover from their surgeries last year. And who knows what to expect from Gonsolin or May, who missed all of last season.
If Miller pitches well and is healthy, I would not be surprised if he is in the starting rotation come Opening Day.
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