LOS ANGELES—Roki Sasaki, the top international free agent this offseason, was arguably the most hyped international pitching prospect in recent history, and if it weren’t for Pittsburgh Pirates-handed starter Paul Skenes, there’s a case he’d be the top young arm in baseball.
After wowing Major League scouts with his play in the 2023 World Baseball Classic with Samurai Japan, Sasaki was pegged as the next best arm to come out of the country of Japan, but when that date was going to be was a different question.
However, after deep discussion with the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki was offically posted as an international amateur free agent and free to sign with all thirty Major League Baseball teams with their international pool money for the 2025 season.
Despite the high interest from half the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers unsurprisingly won the bidding for Sasaki’s services with a $6.5 million signing bonus.
Sasaki, 23, would join fellow Japanese teammates Yoshinobu Yamamoto and three-time Most Valuable Player Award winner Shohei Ohtani as the Dodgers looked to become the first repeat champion since the 2000 New York Yankees.
However, the pressure was high for Sasaki from the very beginning, and so far this season, the young righty has not lived up to the billing.
After his last start against the Dodgers National League West rival, the Arizona Diamondbacks, where the righty allowed five runs in four innings, his ERA has jumped to a shocking 4.72 this season.
Overall, Sasaki is 1-1 in eight starts this season in 34.1 innings pitched, a 1.49 WHIP, 6.11 xERA, 6.17 FIP, 5.62 xFIP, 6.2 K/9, 5.77 BB/9, 1.57 HR/9, and an alarming twenty-four strikeouts to twenty-two walks.
The start to Sasaki’s career thus far has been lackluster and a rollercoaster ride, but what is the issue?
Sasaki’s Fastball is One of the Worst Pitches in Baseball
One of the cornerstones of any pitcher’s arsenal is the fastball. For many, it is the benchmark when creating a Major League pitcher, and for Sasaki, it has arguably been his worst pitch this season.
Sasaki is currently a three-pitch pitcher: Fastball, Splitter, and Slider. He throws his fastball 50.2% of the time this season, but opponents have a .253 batting average, .494 slugging percentage, .386 wOBA, .308 xBA, and .663 xSLG.
In Sasaki’s start against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, the righty threw twenty-two fastballs, getting a big fat zero whiffs, whereas in his previous start against the Atlanta Braves, he got a career-best four whiffs on fifty-three pitches, which is still not good.
Despite Sasaki’s fastball velocity averaging 96 MPH this season with an elite 7.1 extension from his 6.1’ release height, he generates poor iVB, which gives the pitch a very steep VAA (Vertical Approach Angle). The pitch’s negatives outweigh its positives, demonstrating that velocity isn’t everything.
Velocity Dip
One of the first indicators that Sasaki was not fully healthy or in sync with his mechanics was the dramatic dip in his velocity over the first two months of the regular season.
In Sasaki’s first appearance of the 2025 season in Tokyo, Japan, against the Chicago Cubs, Sasaki’s first pitch of the ballgame was a triple-digit fastball, one of several high-velocity pitches he’d throw in his outing.
However, over the next few starts, Sasaki would showcase widely inconsistent velocity, dipping to as low as 93 MPH, a massive red flag to watchers.
However, before the shoulder injury was revealed, Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior was asked what the dip in velocity was attributed to, and Prior explained that it was deliberate for Sasaki to control his command.
“Roki, everybody knows he throws 100,” Prior said. “He’s not throwing 100 with us. That’s something that I think he was trying to train and get to it, which we tried to help as much as we could. But he also felt like it affected his command tremendously in those first couple outings.”
However, the truth will never be honestly told, as Sasaki was placed on the 15-day injured list nearly a week later with a right shoulder impingement.
Shoulder Injury
Before his scheduled start against the Athletics at Dodger Stadium, Sasaki had complained of shoulder soreness to the Dodgers coaching staff, an issue that the righty had been dealing with in the last few starts.
Ultimately, Sasaki would become the next Dodgers pitcher to land on the injured list and the third member of their Opening Day rotation, joining Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, who each have their own shoulder issues.
The injury is not new for the 23-year-old Japanese phenom, as last year with the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki had similar shoulder issues and an oblique injury that forced the righty to miss significant time.
When Sasaki arrived at spring training, the Dodgers didn’t entirely know what to expect with his health. Due to multiple injuries, the righty was thrown as the Dodgers’ number two starter, which was never a recipe for success.
“We didn’t know what to expect this year, but to think that he was going to go wire to wire, given his track record and history of innings, was probably unrealistic,” Roberts said. “So this could be that little bit of reprieve in the middle of the season that we can get him back to being healthy, feeling strong and 100 percent and, you know, help us get through the World Series.”
Roberts continued stating that Sasaki would not throw for a while as the team hopes he does not need any medical intervention and can avoid season-ending surgery.
What’s Next?
Coming in to the season it was unrealistic for the Dodgers or any of their fans to expect Sasaki to pitch a full 162-game season, which is why I won’t be shocked if the Dodgers shut down Sasaki until June at the earliest.
The Dodgers are taking their time with their injured players, hoping to have them ready to go and fully healthy come October as is the case with fellow Japanese star Shohei Ohtani who is not expected to rejoin the Dodgers rotation until well after the 2025 All-Star break.
Sasaki is no different in this situation and not only will he use the time off to rest his pitching shoulder but hopefully he can work on his mechanics that he and the pitching coaches have been trying to bring to perfection.
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