Dodgers Analysis: Who Starts Game One?

SEATTLE, WA—Unlike last October, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a plethora of options in the starting rotation as they head to the postseason. A great problem to have, but it does spark a debate of who should start Game One of the Wild Card Series.

Unlike seasons past, the Dodgers will enter the 2025 postseason as the third seed in the competitive National League. Despite winning the National League West for a 12th time in 13 seasons, the team will be forced to play a three-game Wild Card Series at Dodger Stadium this upcoming Tuesday.

Since the implementation of the new Wild Card format, which adds one extra postseason team in each league and transitions from a winner-take-all single-elimination game to a series, Game One holds significant value for teams seeking to advance.

How important is winning Game One in the best-of-three Wild Card Series? Teams that win Game One since the new format was introduced are undefeated, meaning that if the Dodgers want to put themselves in a good position next week, winning the first game is the first step.

So what are their options?

Shohei Ohtani

Make no mistake, when the Dodgers signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a massive 10-year, $700 million deal last offseason, the organization envisioned the right-hander pitching in pivotal games like this one in October.

This season has been unique for Ohtani as the righty is coming off his second elbow surgery of his career (an injury that kept him off the mound all of last season) and, most recently, offseason shoulder surgery to repair his dislocated shoulder, an injury Ohtani suffered in Game Two of last year’s Fall Classic.

Over the Summer, Ohtani and the Dodgers laid out a plan that involved a slow, gradual buildup by the end of the season.

Now, as we enter the final stretch of the 2025 season, Ohtani has finally built up to six innings, doing so in his final start of the regular season, where he tossed six shutout frames, allowing just one hit on the night.

In a short 47-inning sample size, Ohtani was flat-out unhittable on the mound for Los Angeles this season, posting a 2.87 ERA, 1.91 FIP, and striking out 33% of batters faced.

Ohtani has also been even better lately, with October on the horizon, posting a 0.46 ERA, 0.712 WHIP, and allowing just ten hits over his final four starts of the season.

Ohtani made his final start in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, which would line him up to start Game One of the Wild Card with six full days of rest.

However, one reason why the Dodgers might opt not to pitch Ohtani in Game One compared to Game Two or Three is the effects that pitching the day after has on his production as a hitter.

In eight instances, when Ohtani started a game on the mound and played the next day, the three-time MVP posted unusually low stats (.147/.194/.382, and a .577 OPS).

Despite that, I’d say there’s a high chance that Ohtani starts one of the first two games simply because when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was asked about it, he confirmed as much.

“We don’t know yet,” Roberts told reporters when asked if Tuesday’s start was a sign Ohtani was lined up to start Game 1. “I think it just kind of gives us some options. But the likelihood of him starting a playoff game in that first series are very high.”

Blake Snell

When the Dodgers inked left-handed two-time Cy Young Award winner to a massive multi-year deal over the Winter, he and the team were hopeful he’d be available for these types of starts.

While Snell missed a good chunk of the season on the injured list after dealing with a left shoulder injury, the southpaw has looked as advertised in the second half of the regular season.

Since being activated off the injured list, Snell boasts a 2.41 ERA and an 11.69 K/9 and has just allowed three home runs, which were hit over his first two starts after his activation.

Unlike Ohtani, Snell has postseason experience with the lefty posting a 4-3 record and a 3.33 ERA across 12 appearances in his career.

Snell has been hot as of late, too, with his latest outing versus the high-potential offense of the Philadelphia Phillies, where he pitched seven dominant innings and pleaded his case to remain in the game during the 7th inning despite back-to-back two-out walks.

Snell gives the Dodgers a left-handed option that could bode well versus a left-handed-heavy team like the New York Mets, who currently hold the final National League Wild Card spot.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Another option for Los Angeles is second-year right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who, from start to finish, was the Dodgers’ best starting pitcher this season.

Yamamoto’s 2025 regular season was a stellar display of pitching prowess. ESPN reports he went 12-8 in 30 starts, with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 173.2 innings. His skill in restricting baserunners is evident from his opponents’ batting average of .183 and a very low 0.543 OPS, highlighting his ability to keep hitters off their rhythm.

Yamamoto’s season stands out due to his exceptional ability to generate swings and misses. According to FanGraphs, his whiff percentage—indicating how often swings miss the pitch—was an impressive 29.0% over the season. This highlights his skill in prompting swings outside the zone or causing weak contact. His strikeout rate (K%) also reached 29.0%, complemented by a 7.1% walk rate (BB%).

Yamamoto’s 201 strikeouts make him the first Dodgers pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in a regular season since Walker Buehler in 2021. His achievement puts him among a select group of Dodgers pitchers, including Kershaw, Koufax, Don Sutton, and Fernando Valenzuela, who have also surpassed 200 strikeouts in a single season.

Like Snell and Ohtani, Yamamoto has also locked in for the Dodgers in the stretch run, going 1-0 with a 0.67 ERA and 34 strikeouts in four appearances this month, helping the Dodgers clinch a postseason spot and securing the game-winning NL West clinch game on Thursday.

Then you have to factor in what Yamamoto did last Fall for the Dodgers, pitching to a 2-0 record with a 3.86 across four starts for the Dodgers in their path to securing the eighth World Series title in franchise history.

Bottom Line?

Any one of the three names listed would be a fantastic option for the Dodgers to use, but if I were a betting man, I’d say the Dodgers go Ohtani, Snell, and Yamamoto in that order for the Wild Card round.

The best-case scenario for Los Angeles is that if they sweep the series, they can hold off on using Yamamoto for him to start Game One of the National League Division Series in Philadelphia, or if they do need to play that third game in the Wild Card, they have an excellent option for that start.

With the Dodgers only needing three starters for the first series, you’ll likely see extra arms in the rotation like Clayton Kershaw, Emmet Sheehan, and perhaps Tyler Glasnow head to the Dodgers’ bullpen.

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