Dodgers Analysis: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not Heading into October
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers land in October playing some of their best baseball of the year, and the past 15 days back it up. Using the team’s last-two-weeks splits, here’s where the heat is… and where the cold pockets could shape Dave Roberts’ roster calls for Tuesday night against Cincinnati.
Who’s hot? (hitters)
Shohei Ohtani finished the tune-up schedule like a man already living in October. In 13 games he went 15-for-54 (.278) with 4 doubles, a triple, and 6 homers (good for a .722 slug and a 1.072 OPS) while stealing two bags and scoring 12 runs. The strikeouts ticked up (20), but the quality of contact and the ability to change games in one swing are peaking at the right time. He finished the season with a three-hit explosion that resulted in his 55th home run (breaking his own team record).
Freddie Freeman looked like the metronome this lineup needs: 15-for-48 (.313) with four homers, nine RBI, and a .983 OPS. The walks (6) kept his base-reaching steady and the situational swings stayed short and sweet. However, lately, the power has been back in his game. His 13 home runs since August 1 is a welcome sight, and takes a lot of pressure off Shohei and Andy Pages to deliver the long ball.
Andy Pages has been a quiet force in the back half of the lineup. Across 13 games, he stacked 13 hits in 48 AB (.271) with four doubles and three homers, posting an .842 OPS. He finished a little weakly with a bad series in Seattle, but he has a calm demeanor that will come in handy next month.
Kiké Hernández feels like… October Kiké. In 10 games he went 8-for-30 (.267) with two homers and nine RBI, translating to an .840 OPS. He’s seeing spin again, turning around velocity, and, maybe most importantly, looking decisive in leverage at-bats.
Don’t overlook the depth bats. Alex Call (4-for-16, .850 OPS) has flashed gap power with a double and a homer; Dalton Rushing (6-for-21, .762 OPS) added a double, a homer, and some thump from the left side. Teoscar Hernández (12-for-46, .733 OPS) cooled slightly but still chipped in extra-base damage and remains a lineup lengthener. Miguel Rojas (10-for-38, .721 OPS) gave professional at-bats, three doubles, and clean defense, all important elements of winning baseball.
Who’s not? (hitters)
Mookie Betts isn’t lost, but he has cooled down considerably from his late summer heights: 12-for-49 (.245) in the last two weeks with two doubles, two homers, and a .706 OPS. He’s still impacting games, yet the swing decisions haven’t been as airtight. The good news: five walks, and his track record of immediate course-correction.
Still fighting off injury, Max Muncy’s swing hasn’t held its line yet: 3-for-23 (.130) with two homers, one walk, and eight strikeouts (.591 OPS). The bat speed shows up in bursts; the in-zone whiffs are the tell. He’s one well-timed mistake away from flipping the story, but until the chase rate settles, Roberts may prefer him in power-hunting pockets over every high-leverage plate appearance. He’s supposed to face live pitching in the team workout on Monday, so we’ll see how that plays.
Ben Rortvedt (4-for-27, .517 OPS) and Michael Conforto (.695 OPS) have been light on impact; Tommy Edman (8-for-35, .557 OPS) brings versatility and defense but is scuffling at the plate since his return from the IL. All three can still help win a series: Rortvedt with receiving, Conforto by forcing deep counts on right-handers, Edman with speed and gloves at multiple spots. However, the bats need a reset. It’s going to be interesting to see who gets the ABs out of this group in October.
One name you don’t see in this analysis is Will Smith, the Dodgers’ All-Star catcher. He’s been nursing that hand injury most of the month, and is a big question mark for October. Having him in the lineup would really give a boost to the back half of the batting order. Let’s hope he heals up quickly!
Who’s hot? (pitchers)
At the top, the arms look imposing. Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivered 11.1 scoreless innings across two starts (0.00 ERA) with 14 strikeouts; the split and cutter are living at the knees, and his tempo has returned. Blake Snell matched the shape you want from him: 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 17 K, and only one homer allowed in two starts. Emmet Sheehan, who’s now ticketed for an October relief role, worked 13.2 innings with a 0.66 ERA and 20 strikeouts, exactly the kind of swing-and-miss bridge that can shorten games in October.
Shohei Ohtani’s pitching runway looks real: 11.1 scoreless with 13 K over his last two outings, a 0.55 WHIP, and no homers allowed. Even when the pitch count capped him, the fastball life and split depth screamed playoff-ready. Tyler Glasnow (14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 14 K) completed his “October tune-ups” with miss in the zone and sharpened command. That’s enough to expect a velocity/slider bump under the lights.
In the bullpen tier, there are encouraging lines. Anthony Banda (5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA) has executed to both edges, and late add Will Klein hasn’t allowed a run in 4.2 innings (0.64 WHIP) while missing bats, which might be an intriguing option if Roberts wants a right-handed strikeout look. And finally, Roki Sasaki’s two spotless innings with five strikeouts point to a potential late-inning jolt if the moment arises. Sasaki’s electric stuff could be an high-leverage X-factor in October.
Who’s not? (pitchers)
I put Clayton Kershaw on this list only because we know he won’t be pitching in the first round. We already know he won’t be included on the Wild Card roster, but when series expand to five and seven games, his experience and guile will come in handy. Kersh’s recent results (10.2 IP, 1.69 ERA) were excellent, but the pitch-to-pitch margin for error is thinner. He’s here because he can still get outs; Roberts will pair him aggressively with swing-and-miss behind him.
The genuine red flags are in relief volatility. Blake Treinen was snake-bit and out-of-sync (5.2 IP, 11.12 ERA; heavy traffic and a big crooked number); the raw stuff flashed at times, but misses have leaked to damage zones. One hopes that his three-strikeout night on Saturday is a sign of a course correction. Tanner Scott, given a big contract to close games, has a 7.20 ERA in the last 15 days, but is much better (2.70) over the last seven. Hopefully both these marquee names are trending in the right direction.
Alex Vesia’s line (5.1 IP, 6.35 ERA) reflects command pockets where righties saw the ball early; even so, the raw shapes still play if he’s landing the first-pitch strike.Edgardo Henríquez’s power plays, but contact quality has been loud at times (4.1 IP, 2 ER, higher opponents’ average), and Kirby Yates (2.1 IP, 3.86) and Michael Kopech are both on the IL, and don’t figure to be seen the rest of the year. The takeaway: Roberts has enough hot hands to build leverage lanes, but he may shorten the circle of trust quickly.
How it fits Tuesday vs. Cincinnati
The Reds bring right-handed thump and speed, so platoon leverage will matter. With Ohtani and Freeman both soaring, the Dodgers can stress Cincinnati’s starters immediately and force an early pivot to the pen. Pages and Teoscar are the swing pieces. If they carry their recent form, L.A. stacks dangerous plate appearances one through six. Expect Rojas and Edman to be deployed for run prevention late, especially if a one-run game breaks out.
On the mound, Yamamoto/Snell/Glasnow give the Dodgers three different looks, and Ohtani’s availability on the mound adds a wild card Roberts can deploy in a clean inning. The current hot hands suggest a postseason template: six aggressive, high-octane frames from the starter, then Sheehan for the miss, Banda/Klein for shape contrast, and the best version of Vesia to neutralize left-hand pockets. If the game stretches, Kershaw’s calm strike-throwing can bridge to the finish.
Bottom line: the Dodgers enter the Wild Card Round with their two biggest stars scorching, a couple of role players surging, and several power arms trending up. Clean defense and the first big swing will tilt Tuesday. If the recent two-week form holds, Los Angeles has the bats and the punch-out inventory to make the Reds chase from behind. Bring on 6:00 p.m. at Chavez Ravine.
