Dodgers Analysis: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not Heading into the Fall Classic

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers land in the World Series playing some of their best baseball of the year, and the past three weeks back it up. Using the team’s postseason stat’s, here’s where the heat is… and where the cold pockets could shape Dave Roberts’ roster calls for Friday night in Toronto.

Who’s hot? (hitters)

Kiké Hernández leads the regulars with a .306 batting average. No surprise there. October is Kiké time and we just need to accept it as a thing. But actually, part-timers Alex Call, Ben Rortvedt, and Miguel Rojas all have higher averages than Kiké, so they could all come in handy off the bench.

Teoscar Hernandez leads the team in RBI with 11 and has hit four home runs this month. That’s important. He’ll be in a familiar environment in Toronto for Games 1 and 2, so hopefully, he can wound his former club early in the series.

Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman have both had key hits along the way this October. Betts’ .806 OPS and Edman’s .792 bode well for continued success in the Fall Classic. Additionally, Will Smith (.286 AVG) has looked good at the plate since his return, but is still lacking the pop that we’d like to see out of his bat.

Then, there’s Shohei Ohtani. Is he “hot”? Well, he did have the best game of all-time in the Dodgers’ clincher. His three-homer, six-shutout-inning performance against the Brewers was the stuff of legend. But, to be honest, other than that and his two-homer game against Cincinnati to begin October, Shohei has been largely absent from the LA offense. However, hope springs eternal, and here’s hoping that Friday’s epic game will lead to a big-time heater in the World Series.

Who’s not? (hitters)

When you’re 9-1 in October, there isn’t much to whine about, but there are a few hitters that we’d like to see more out of in the next week.

Freddie Freeman has been okay in October, but not great. A .231 postseason batting average is well below the lofty standard he’s set for himself. But, he was basically a non-factor in the postseason before his epic MVP performance last year, and he’s playing in his ancestral homeland for the first two games, so hopefully all that will add up to a good World Series from Fab Five Freddie.

Max Muncy, who’s had some great moments in the field this October, has been a little lackluster at the plate. He’s still getting his walks (.389 OBP), but I’d like to see a little more slug out of him in the Series. Luckily, the offense is not dependent on Max Muncy homers, but they sure don’t hurt.

Andy Pages has been, well, awful this year in the postseason. There’s no easy way to put it. He’s stunk up the joint. He was at the plate during the Orion Kerkering debacle, so we’ll give him credit for putting the ball in play, but that’s about it. Otherwise, it’s pretty grim: 3-for-35 with only one extra base hit. A yucky .249 OPS. That’s not his batting average, folks, that’s the OPS number (on-base + slugging percentage). No me gusta, Andy.

As far as bench players, three Dodgers are still looking for their first at-bat of the postseason. Hyeseong Kim, Justin Dean, and Dalton Rushing have been very limited in their usage in this run. However, Rushing may be active in the World Series, given the utility of a lefthanded bat off the bench. We’ll see how the brain trust decides on that one. For the same reason, Kim’s roster spot looks safe. Dean’s speed and defense means he can contribute without ever setting foot in the batters’ box.

Who’s hot? (pitchers)

I’m tempted to just say “the entire rotation” and leave it at that, but it’s worth digging into the varying levels of hotness of this amazing Dodger staff.

Blake Snell leads the way for the rotation, with three dominating wins and a 0.86 ERA. He’s been everything we’d hoped for when Andrew Friedman shelled out the big dough for him during the offseason. And he hasn’t just won games. He’s been practically unhittable, as witnessed by his miniscule 0.52 WHIP. Dude’s on a ridiculous heater right now.

However, let’s give Tyler Glasnow his due as well. His October ERA is actually better than Snell’s (although he’s started one fewer game and pitched fewer innings than Snellzilla). Still, the thought of him in the three-hole going up against an untested Shane Bieber is tantalizing indeed.

The two Japanese pitchers have been great as well, but each had a bit of a clunker thrown in there. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.83 ERA) didn’t look sharp in his start against the Phillies, and Shohei Ohtani (2.25 ERA) also struggled a bit against Philadelphia before the offense picked him up late in the game. Still, if those two guys are your worst performing starters, I have pity on anyone who is going to face them.

As far as the bullpen goes, really the only pitchers I can really say is “hot” are lefties Jack Dreyer and Anthony Banda and closer Roki Sasaki. Luckily, the Dodgers haven’t needed much more than an inning or two out of the pen per game in the first three rounds, so the weaknesses haven’t been exposed. Yet.

Who’s not? (pitchers)

Sadly, Clayton Kershaw has to head this list with his 18.00 ERA. He didn’t have his best stuff against the Phillies and with Tanner Scott not available, he basically had to wear one for the team. Still, it would be nice to see him get into one of the final games at Dodger Stadium, give him a clean inning in a low-leverage game, and let 22 walk off the mound the hero he is.

Emmet Sheehan has been surprising ineffective as a reliever, giving up far too much contact in his time in the pen. Opponents are hitting .400 off him in his limited time on the mound, which is… not good. However, he’s definitely going to be needed with the righthanded heavy lineup that the Jays throw out there every night. Hopefully, he can right the ship and be the Sheehan we saw for most of the year.

Alex Vesia has been “okay” (3.86 ERA) and has gotten some key outs, but I don’t feel super confident in him right now, either. He’s going to need to step it up if he wants to maintain the trust that Dave Roberts has in him right now.

Blake Treinen (7.36 ERA) is the one guy who scares me. If we put the glory of 2024 aside for a minute, we have to acknowledge that he’s getting knocked around quite a bit in almost every outing. And, even in spots where he doesn’t give up runs, we can see far too many balls left over the heart of the plate. I would hope that Roberts considers Sheehan in righty spots before Treinen this time around, but sometimes Doc is loyal to a fault to past success. Another option would be to add Edgardo Henriquez to the roster instead of Justin Wrobleski to have another righty reliever to hand the big thumpers (Bichette, Springer, Guerrero) from the right side. We’ll see. Whatever transpires next week, it might be time for Treinen to think about pulling a Daniel Hudson and hanging up the spikes at the end of the year.

How it fits Friday vs. Toronto

As I said earlier, it’s a bit hard to find fault with a team that’s been on the heater the Dodgers have been on lately. Some in the media are predicting another sweep. I’m not going to be that bold. I feel like it’s entirely possible that they blow one of these games late or one starter struggles with command and has to be pulled early in a game.

However, it’s hard to fathom how a team that’s only lost six games in the last six weeks is somehow going to lose four in the next ten days. It could happen. But me, I’m planning for a parade.

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