Cody Snavely
Prior to yesterday’s opening series win over their National League West rival San Francisco Giants, where rookie pitcher River Ryan made his Major League debut, the Dodgers made a shocking move, opting to DFA veteran left-handed pitcher James Paxton.
Paxton, 35, has made all eighteen starts this season and surprisingly, along with right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, has been the healthiest starter.
With the inconsistencies of Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler, injuries to Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the anticipation of the activation of longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, James Paxton held down the starting rotation until this point of the season.
The Dodgers signed Paxton late this offseason to a one-year $7 million deal that could reach upward of $13 million based on roster and performance bonuses, which the lefty met at his most recent start on Sunday.
However, the announcement of his DFA left many fans and insiders questioning the move, but in the grand scheme of things, it completely makes sense.
40-man roster needed to be cleared for River Ryan
The decision to DFA James Paxton was primarily to make room on the 40-man and 26-man roster for the upcoming debut of starting pitcher River Ryan. His call-up from Triple-A OKC was a necessary step that had to be taken before he could take the mound at Chavez Ravine. Despite having other options on the 26-man roster to DFA, such as Yohan Ramirez, the Dodgers retained bullpen support and sacrificed one of their starters.
The move goes on to show that the Dodgers front office has a lot of faith in not only River Ryan but also the return of Kershaw, who just finished his rehab stint in the minor leagues. They also trust the arm of Tyler Glasnow, who is approaching his career-high in innings.
Paxton had taken every turn in the rotation leading up to eighteen starts and was the one veteran presence on the big league club. However, with the multitude of injuries facing the Dodgers over the past two weeks, in the end, someone had to bite the bullet, and it was Paxton.
Kershaw & others returning
When Paxton was signed to a one-year deal in the offseason, it made sense for multiple reasons, such as giving the Dodgers a much-needed left-handed option in the starting rotation and being used as a stopgap until Clayton Kershaw returned to the mound.
Well, it seems like the Dodgers agreed with my thought process. The week Clayton Kershaw is due to return to the mound and face the San Francisco Giants for his 2024 regular season debut, the Dodgers have cut ties with Paxton.
However, Kershaw is not the only starting pitcher returning this week as fellow right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow is set to return from the 15-day injured list and make his first start since July 5th after missing the last two weeks with back tightness.
As Andrew Friedman stated in an interview with Bill Plunkett from the Orange County Register, the Dodgers also anticipate Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller returning to the fold. They anticipate that multiple arms will return and make an impact.
We’re confident that Glas, Yamamoto, Kersh, Buehler and Bobby will be back
Andrew Friedman on the Dodgers pitching reinforcements
If the Dodgers expect the whole gang to return, the need for Paxton becomes moot, especially since the lefty was only averaging four and two-thirds each start.
In terms of an October outlook, Paxton was never intended to throw meaningful innings in the postseason, and with his age and declining performance, shifting him to the Dodgers’ bullpen wouldn’t do him any favors either.
In a conversation with Clint Pasillas of Dodgers Territory and All Dodgers, I stated that at some point in the season, when the Dodgers’ pitching staff is fully back and healthy, strategic decisions must be made. I listed Paxton as the potential odd man out, and suggested that the team could try and trade him at the deadline, a move that could demonstrate the team’s forward-thinking approach to managing its pitching staff.
Paxton wasn’t who the Dodgers needed him to be
During the offseason, Los Angeles set out to revamp the starting rotation, which was a huge problem during the 2023 regular season and postseason. The health and depth were tested all year.
The Dodgers, in their quest for success, ultimately triumphed in numerous games, securing another National League West title. However, their journey was not without its setbacks. The National League Division Series saw the Arizona Diamondbacks capitalizing on the Dodgers’ weak starters, who posted an ERA over sixty in those three games.
The Dodgers made moves, trading for Tyler Glasnow and signing the best-starting pitcher on the market, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They also added a depth piece in James Paxton, who the team had hoped would eat up crucial innings for the rotation during the grueling one-hundred-sixty-two-game season.
However, despite staying healthy, Paxton did not accomplish the goal that the Dodgers had set out for him.
Paxton was 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA and a 4.97 WHIP. He hit the mid-90s on his fastball for most of the season but was plagued by walks, as his 1.455 WHIP is the second-highest of his career. This led to the lefty only averaging between four and five innings on the year, taxing the Dodgers bullpen. If it weren’t for the offense scoring over five runs per game on average, the record would tell a different story.
Paxton’s 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average.
Paxton’s recent performance has been a cause for concern. Since June 5, he has carried a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). If we stretch that endpoint to mid-May, Paxton has been struggling with a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts. This trend calls for immediate attention and action.
What’s next?
With James Paxton officially DFA’d by the Dodgers, he is now removed from the 40-man roster, clearing a spot for right-handed pitcher River Ryan.
If you are unfamiliar with how the process works for a DFA’d player, the team has seven days to either return the player to the 40-man roster, place the player on waivers, trade the player, release the player, or “send outright” the player from the 40-man roster into Minor Leagues.
In this case, with the July 30th Major League Baseball trade deadline seven days away, the Dodgers will try to trade the lefty to get some value in return. Despite the struggles mentioned throughout this article for Paxton, plenty of teams will be interested in his services.
The Dodgers will also have to make another corresponding 40-man roster move when left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw is activated off the 60-day injured list, so let the fun begin.
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