Cody Snavely
We are only two days away from Dodgers pitchers and catchers reporting to Glendale, Arizona, to officially kick off spring training.
A new year means new projections and predictions for teams around the league. One such projection model is the PECOTA model.
For those unfamiliar with PECOTA, it is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm and is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.
Baseball Prospectus releases PECOTA yearly and updates it throughout the year based on team and player performance. So, what does it have in store for the 2024 Dodgers?
Dodgers projected to run away with NL West
The Dodgers’ current run of division titles since 2013 is unusual in baseball. The Dodgers have won the NL West every year since 2013, except in 2021, when the San Francisco Giants narrowly edged them despite winning 106 games.
The Dodgers extended that postseason streak, winning the NL West again in 2023, and PECOTA does not see that trend breaking in 2024.
The Dodgers are projected to win over 100 games, which would continue a streak of 100 or more wins in the regular season, which the Dodgers have done in every full season since 2019.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, the defending National League Champions, are projected to win 85 games in 2024, a similar total they got last season. PECOTA has the Dodgers’ postseason percentage at 99.8%, which is tied with the Braves as the closest lock to a projected postseason appearance.
Projected team performances: Offense
While the team is projected to win over 100 games, they are projected for big years on both the offensive and pitching sides.
The Dodgers are projected to score 879 runs this year, ahead of the Atlanta Braves (855), Houston Astros (839), and New York Yankees (827), which are the only teams with 800 or more runs.
The Dodgers and Braves each had historic offensive production in 2023, with the Dodgers scoring the most runs in franchise history at 906. With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, along with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts looking to continue their production, expect big things from the offense.
Projected team performances: Pitching
The Dodgers’ most significant bump compared to last year is the pitching projections. This Winter’s goal was to revamp the starting rotation for the regular season and October.
With the additions of Tyler Glansnow, James Paxton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Bueler, and Clayton Kershaw at some point in the year, the Dodgers have one of the deepest rotations in the league.
The Dodgers are expected to allow 685 runs, which would put them behind the Braves (671), Baltimore Orioles (675), Tampa Bay Rays (681), Minnesota Twins (681), and Yankees (684).
World Series odds and outlook for the rest of MLB
The 2024 Dodgers have one goal in mind: a World Series Championship. However, while the Dodgers outproject the Braves in many categories, the PECOTA projections have the Braves as the World Series favorite.
The Braves are the World Series favorites, with an 18.7% chance compared to the Dodgers’ 17.1% chance. The next closest team is the Astros, with a 12.1% chance, while the Yankees are the only other team above 10%, with a mark just shy of 11%.
The Astros, Yankees, and Orioles are all projected to have great seasons in the AL, with the Dodgers and Braves the only NL teams projected to win over 90 games.
Conclusion
The PECOTA projections indicate that the MLB season is on the horizon. The Dodgers are poised to have a great year due to the historic offseason they have put together.
To generate more excitement for the MLB season, the Dodgers have exceeded the last five PECOTA projections. BetMGM set the current betting odds for the 2024 Dodgers’ win total at 104.5.
If everything goes as planned, this team will blow past the 100-win total and could very well get close to the 111-win mark set in 2022.
