Dodgers News: 2025 PECOTA Projections Expect a Massive Year for Los Angeles

The 2025 Major League Baseball offseason is approaching its final weeks of action, with many teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, expected to arrive at their respective spring training facilities this month.

While the unofficial end of the offseason was held at Dodger Stadium this past Saturday with DodgerFest, fans can finally turn the page on what was a championship 2024 season and look forward to the upcoming 2025 year.

That said, this is the time of year when many analysts, shows, and sports podcasters post their annual predictions, and Baseball Prospectus is no exception with the PECOTA projections.

For those unfamiliar with PECOTA, it is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance.

The model is widely considered one of the most accurate predictors in Major League Baseball, and it provides precise, up-to-date information for each passing day in the season.

The model has been favorable to the Dodgers since the 2013 season and usually comes between a handful of games of the actual end-of-season win/loss total. So, what does PECOTA have in store for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2025?

National League West Projections

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ run of divisional dominance is not particularly common in Major League Baseball. Despite a hiccup during the 2021 season (when Los Angeles still won 107 games), they’ve won the National League West every season since 2013.

According to PECOTA, that is not projected to change, giving the Dodgers an incredible 97.7% chance to win yet another National League West title and an unfathomable 100% chance to make the postseason.

However, the Dodgers are projected to run away with the division and have the most wins in baseball, with 103.8. This is the fifth time in the last six years that Baseball Prospectus has estimated that the Dodgers would win at least 100 games.

As for the rest of the division, the San Diego Padres are expected to take a massive step back after rivaling the Dodgers last season for first place, pushing Los Angeles to the final week of the regular season before they clinched.

Overall, the Arizona Diamondbacks are projected for a second-place finish with 86.4 wins and a postseason berth. The Friars are projected for 82.5 wins, narrowly above the fourth-place projected San Francisco Giants at 78.0 wins. Rounding out the bottom of the West are the Colorado Rockies, who are projected for a measly 55.5 wins.

Projected Team Performances: Offense 

During the 2024 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers were rankled in the top five in many offensive categories such as RBI, home runs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS, and the team took it up a notch during October en route to the franchises eighth World Series title.

Well, PECOTA believes those trends will continue as the Dodgers are projected to have the most runs scored in Major League Baseball for 2025 at 834.

This is to be expected as the Dodgers lineup 1-through-9 is arguably the best in the sport, with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, a trio of Most Valuable Player Award winners at the top.

However, it goes beyond that with key additions such as re-signing Teoscar Hernández, having a healthy Max Muncy and Will Smith, and plug-and-play guys like Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas.

The Dodgers are the only team projected to score over 800 runs in PECOTA’s model, with the second-place Atlanta Braves coming in at a distant 761 runs scored.

Projected Team Performances: Pitching & Defense

The Los Angeles Dodgers have made it a point to improve their pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation, over the last two winters.

Last season, despite adding Tyler Glasnow, Yoshi Yamamoto, and getting a great rookie season from Gavin Stone, the Dodgers’ starting rotation was extremely lackluster.

However, the Dodgers added even more pitching depth this season, starting with lefty Blake Snell, signing star 23-year-old Japanese righty Roki Sasaki, and having Shohei Ohtani return to the mound, so the rotation is poised to get back on track.

The other added issue with the Dodgers is concerns surrounding their defense, which is odd since the Dodgers ranked in the top ten in Defensive Runs Saved last year, with nearly that entire unit back for the 2025 season.

While the unmistakable question mark is the Mookie Betts at shortstop dilemma, a full offseason to train for the position compared to a few weeks like last spring will only benefit Betts and the Dodgers, not hurt them.

PECOTA is also betting on the Dodgers’ revamped pitching staff and defense, allowing the fewest runs in baseball at 625 runs allowed, just one less run than the Seattle Mariners, who have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

World Series Odds and Outlook for the Rest of League

Regarding World Series odds, which are what matter most, the Los Angeles Dodgers have an outstanding 20.7% chance of winning the World Series, with the next closest team, the Atlanta Braves, at 9.7%.

The Dodgers are also the only team in Major League Baseball projected to win over 100 games, with the next closest team being the Braves, with a 92.4 win total projection.

Things get even more mediocre in both the American and National League Central, with the top teams projected for 86 (Minnesota Twins) and 90 (Chicago Cubs) wins.

Staying in the American League, the defending American League Champion New York Yankees, despite losing outfielder Juan Soto, are projected for the best record with 89.7 wins, slightly above the 2023 World Series Champion Texas Rangers at 89.3.

Overall, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for yet another historic season, and as long as they stay healthy, they should have no problem cracking the 100-win mark.

But for record’s sake, here’s a chart showing how the PECOTA projections have compared to the Dodgers’ actual win totals since 2013.

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