Cody Snavely
Amidst the bee debacle that surrounded the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in Arizona last night, Walker Buehler made his sixth rehab start. The anticipation is high as all indications point towards his potential activation in the coming days, marking a significant step towards his return to the Dodgers.
Walker Buehler is inching close to two full seasons of missed baseball after the right-handed flame thrower hit the IL due to forearm/elbow issues that ultimately required his second career, Tommy John Surgery.
Since Buehler’s call-up during the 2018 season, he has been a staple in the Dodgers rotation, coming up in big moments during the regular season and, of course, the postseason, where his starts in the 2019 NLDS, 2020 NLCS, and World Series have defined his tenure with the Dodgers.
From the 2018 season to the 2021 season, Buehler posted a 2.82 ERA in 564 innings, striking out 620 batters with an ERA+ of 146, 3.16 FIP, and a 9.9 K/9, winning 39 games for the Dodgers in 94 starts. Most notably, in this run, Buehler’s average fastball velocity sat at 96.2 mph.
During the 2022 season, many factors and hints suggested that Buheler was not one hundred percent right. For starters, during the 2022 season, Buehler ranked in the 72nd percentile of fastball velocity, whereas in previous seasons, he was 90th or higher.
In twelve starts that season, Buehler also posted the highest ERA (minimum 100 innings) at 4.02 and the highest HR/9 at 9.3. Buehler and his arm reached a breaking point in June when the right-hander was placed on the IL due to a right flexor strain, and eventually, he would undergo TJS, ending his season.
Buehler was sidelined from the baseball world until September of last season, when he attempted to possibly come back and rejoin the team during a late September/October run. Still, after one rehab start, he and the team elected to hold off and start fresh in 2024.
Here we are in 2024, and Buehler has yet to make a Major League appearance as the Dodgers elected to take their time placing him and a delayed start. Buehler did not appear in a Spring Training game despite continuing his throwing program and having multiple live at-bats before the team’s departure to Seoul, Korea.
However, shortly after the start of the 2024 regular season, the Dodgers sent Buehler on a rehab assignment, where he recently made his sixth start in the minors.
In six starts between Single-A and Triple-A, Buehler has a 0-2 record with a 4.15 ERA, allowing 26 hits, ten earned runs, and 21 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. However, despite some flashes of success, Buehler struggled with command, walking nine batters in those innings and failing to pitch more than four innings on multiple occasions.
In multiple pre-game scrums, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts also stated that the Dodgers were looking for Buehler to perfect this area and his bounce back in between innings, going at least five innings in his later starts.
Buehler did that and more in his likely final rehab outing, going five innings on 75 pitches, allowing three hits, one run, and five strikeouts, and demonstrating good command and usage of his curveball.
Buehler’s four-seam fastball — a triple-digit offering before Tommy John surgery in 2022 — averaged 92.9 mph and touched 94.3. Although the pitch did not generate any swings and misses or swings on pitches out of the zone, he was able to balance it effectively with his cutter, slider, and sinker. Buehler’s knuckle-curveball was an effective chase pitch, generating seven called strikes or whiffs.
During yesterday’s postgame, Roberts was asked about the likelihood that this will be Buehler’s last rehab start, to which he replied:
We’ll see how he comes out of it. But if all goes well, I think it’s a very likely possibility.
via Dave Roberts postgame 4/30/2024
With all signed for Buehler’s return, when will the righty potentially rejoin the Dodgers?
The Dodgers are wrapping up a season-long nine-game road trip in Arizona and will have an off day on Thursday. They will then host the Atlanta Braves this weekend and the struggling Miami Marlins afterward.
Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have been giving left-handed starter James Paxton extended rest in between starts, and bullpen games have held together, or rookie Landon Knack. With that thought process, the Dodgers have one of two options.
Option one is to start Buehler on Sunday against the Braves, which would place him on regular rest from his last rehab start. However, he would have to face the behemoth that is the Braves in his first MLB start since 2022.
Option two would be to push his start until Monday, when he could be eased into his return against the Marlins, who, at the time of this article, have a 7-24 record and a -63 run differential.
I am more in line to have Buheler make his debut on Monday, kicking off the three-game set with the Marlins. This would give Buheler nearly a whole week off between starts and would allow him to slowly build up against a struggling team. However, the competitiveness in Buehler would be surprising to me if he wanted a challenge and started against the Atlant Braves on Sunday.
The return of Walker Buehler brings stability to a Dodgers rotation and another veteran presence that will pair well with Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
With Bobby Miller still out due to shoulder inflammation and having yet to throw off a mound, the Dodgers are counting on Buhler to fill his place in the rotation.
Buehler, who has a career 3.02 ERA in 638.1 innings pitched, is someone the Dodgers and their fans have surely missed, and his return is huge for the team in 2024.
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