Cody Snavely
*Per Jon Heyman the Dodgers and Paxton are in agreement. $11M plus $1M Opening Day roster bonus plus $1M incentives.*
The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers are not done this offseason as they have signed veteran left-handed pitcher James Paxton to a 1-year $12 million deal.
The Dodgers have revamped their entire starting rotation, and according to David Vassegh, there is no indication that they are done. The addition of Paxton adds a much-needed left-handed pitcher to the starting rotation.
Why the Paxton deal makes sense
The Dodgers are taking another risk on another starting pitcher. Last season, that reclamation project was right-handed pitcher Noah Syndergaard. This year, it is James Paxton. Here on DodgerBeat, I wrote about the possibility of the Dodgers signing Paxton as it was a name they were interested in at the trade deadline. While the Dodgers ultimately ended up with Lance Lynn, Ryan Yarbrough, and Joe Kelly, Paxton was a popular arm in the trade market. However, the biggest issue for Paxton and the others on this list has been health.
Since the 2020 season, Paxton has only managed to stay on the mound for 117.2 innings. Most of which were during the 2023 season, where he pitched his highest count since 2019 with 96 innings. Paxton missed the entire 2022 season as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Injuries got the best of him at the end of the season, as a knee injury ended his 2023 campaign. However, before that, in his first 16 starts, he was an excellent option for the Red Sox, going 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA, 3.69 x FIP, 26.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, and 1.14 WHIP.
The Dodgers need depth in their starting rotation. All signs point to Walker Buhler being put on a delayed start, and innings limit as he continues to rehab from his second career Tommy John Surgery. The Dodgers will also be mindful of Tyler Glasnow, who pitched his career high in innings last year at 120 and has struggled with his own injuries throughout his young career. The Dodgers could also try to go to a six-man rotation as they allow Yoshinobu Yamamoto to adjust to the MLB.
What move is next?
Regarding payroll, the Dodgers are in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in the last two years. As a result, they’re taxed at a 110% rate on any spending at this point. Paxton’s deal would come with a $13.2MM fee, bringing their total expenditure to $25.2MM for one year of his services.
The Dodgers are likely done in the position player market and will look to add at least one more starter and bullpen arm before spring training officially starts. The Dodgers could pick from many options on the market, so expect them to be active in the final two weeks of the offseason.
Clayton Kershaw has been mentioned throughout the offseason, and my theory is that the Dodgers and Kershaw will come to an agreement when the 60-day IL opens later in February. This would allow Kershaw to rejoin the team without taking up a 40-man roster spot. However, once the 60-day IL opens up, a few more spots will be cleared, as Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin will also be added, freeing up two more spots.
The Dodgers have been heavily rumored in the relief market, and Kenley Jansen has been mentioned more than once. The Dodgers could also bring back Ryan Brasier, who was untouchable in a Dodgers uniform last season, giving up only three runs in 38 innings.
Conclusion
The Dodgers are taking a risk in James Paxton, but with the arms surrounding him, it could be an excellent pickup and a nice bridge to a potential Kershaw return in August. However, expect the Dodgers to be active in the final two weeks of the offseason as they get geared up for the 2024 season.
