Cody Snavely
Trade deadline season has offically come early after the struggling Miami Marlins have kicked things off by trading away 2023 NL batting champ Luis Arráez to the San Diego Padres, which begs the question. What other star players could we see traded this deadline?
In a recent article for the New York Post, respected MLB insider Jon Heyman has provided insights into potential trades that could occur by the July 30th deadline. Notably, the Dodgers are being linked to two of these players.
The two players in question are league veterans whom the Dodgers have been eyeing for the past three seasons: Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado and Astros right-handed ace Justin Verlander.
Is an Arenado trade possible?
Since the 2019 MLB offseason, the Dodgers have been linked to eight-time all-star Nolan Arenado a variety of times. As recently as last season, there were a few reports that the Dodgers gazed at the idea with the Cardinals, but those conversations ended quickly.
Arenado, who spent his first eight MLB seasons with the Colorado Rockies, was shipped to the Cardinals in a blockbuster trade as he waived his no-trade clause in hopes of playing for a contender, and what better franchise that values winning above all else than the St. Louis Cardinals.
However, despite making the postseason in 2021 and 2022, the Red Birds have had an underwhelming three seasons, as they have yet to advance past the Wild Card round.
To make matters worse, the Cardinals had one of their worst seasons since the 1990s, finishing last place in the NL Central with a 71-91 record and missing the postseason. Down seasons from Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt and a dysfunctional pitching staff that sported a 4.79 ERA, ranking bottom third in the league, were all factors in the down year, but entering 2024, there was hope they could rebound.
However, fast-forward to 2024, and the Cardinals are in an eerily similar position to what they faced last year: bottom in the NL Central, seven games under .500, with a 15-22 record on pace for 77 wins.
One of the most significant reasons Arenado agreed to trade away from the Rockies was his desire to join a winning ball club. If the Cardinals enter a rebuild, it would not be shocking to see him waive his no-trade clause to a contending team like the Dodgers.
As Jon Heyman pointed out, Arenado has been linked to the Dodgers before, and the Newport Beach native who grew up a fan of the Los Angeles Dodgers would no doubt join the already stacked “super team” who have World Series or bust ambitions on their mind.
Do the Dodgers need Arenado?
The short answer to this question is no. The Dodgers, as built right now, are still one of the best teams in baseball, and they will continue to be World Series favorites with or without him.
However, the thought of adding Arenado to this lineup, handling the hot corner with his elite defense, excites me in every way. However, would it be worth the potential cost?
So far in the 2024 season, Arenado has gotten off to a lukewarm start by his standards, hitting .286/.348/.393, a .741 OPS, 113 OPS+, 2 HR, and 20 RBI. Altogether, Arenado has brought the Cardinals .50 WAR, which is less than the Dodgers’ current 3B Max Muncy.
Speaking of Max Muncy, he has made great strides in improving his defense and is off to one of the better starts offensively to begin the season, hitting .256/.362/.556, a .917 OPS, along with clobbering nine home runs thus far.
On the defensive side, Muncy ranked in the 74th percentile in OAA (outs above average) and had a +2 DRS (defensive-runs-saved), which may surprise many fans.
Muncy is also on a more cost-controlled deal for the Dodgers, re-signing this offseason on a two-year $24 million contract with a $10 million club option for 2026. Compare that to Arenado’s deal, which is set to pay him over $52 million after the 2024 season.
However, the Dodgers could still keep Muncy in a trade for Arenado, shifting him back to 2B, a position in which he has played 1329.2 innings throughout his career with a .983 fielding percentage.
The outlier on the Dodgers roster would be former top prospect Gavin Lux, who has had a tumultuous three seasons coming into 2024, recovering from an ACL/MCL injury that ended his 2023 campaign before it even began.
A trade for Arenado would likely include Lux and a package of other top prospects in the Dodgers farm system. Still, if the team were able to keep Lux, he would be shifted to the bench as a left-handed bat off the bench with experience at starting at 2B and the outfield.
If the Houston Astros sell, could Verlander end up in LA?
While it is too early to say the Houston Astros dynasty is over, they are off to a horrid start to the 2024 season. They are tied for last place in the AL West, ten games under .500, and 7.5 games behind the leading defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers.
If their season continues on a downward spiral, it will not be shocking to see them trade away key players to retool/rebuild for the 2025 season and beyond. Names such as Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Justin Verlander will continue to be swirled in trade rumors until they right the ship.
However, only one of the players mentioned is Justin Verlander, whom the Dodgers have shown interest in in past seasons.
The Dodgers had shown high interest in the veteran right-handed pitcher as recently as the last trade deadline when the New York Mets were shopping him around as they began their retooling after falling out of contention by the 2023 deadline.
However, Verlander had a no-trade clause in his contract and only waived it upon a proposed trade to the Hoston Astros, who won over his services last deadline, helping the Astros reach their seventh straight ALCS appearances.
Prior to the 2023 season, the Dodgers also pushed hard to sign the veteran free agent during the 2022/2023 MLB offseason, looking at a short-term high AAV (average annual value) contract. Still, Verlander opted to sign with the Mets on a massive two-year, $86.6 million deal.
Verlander is the definition of the age-old saying “aging like fine wine.” upon his trade to Houston in 2017, Verlander has put up godly numbers.
Over the last eight seasons (2017-2024), Verlander has posted a 2.73 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, and 156 ERA+ in 1008.2 innings pitched. Verlander is also a workhorse, averaging 213 innings pitched per season, a rare site in today’s game.
Does a trade for Verlander make sense?
If there is one area in baseball that you cannot have enough of, it is pitching, explicitly starting pitching. The last two Octobers for the Dodgers’ early exits were due to this, which they strived to improve on for 2024.
However, despite the acquisition of Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and James Paxton and the return of Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, and Clayton Kershaw later this summer, the Dodgers would welcome another veteran ace to slot into their rotation.
However, while Verlander has been a dawg in the regular season since his trade to the Astros, he has been one of the better postseason pitchers, going 10-7 with an ERA of 3.74 and 132 strikeouts in 22 postseason appearances since 2017.
Verlander was a large part in the Astros World Series runs, helping them win two titles in four appearances, and would instantly help the Dodgers on a potential deep October run.
The record-setting contract is also made more affordable thanks to those same Mets who, when they offloaded Verlander, paid a huge chunk of his remaining salary to get a better package.
Verlander is owed around $22.5 million for the 2024 season if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024, a $35 million player option vests that the then-42-year-old would likely take if he does not retire.
It is never too early for trade talk
It is only the second week in May, but the trade market will start ramping up as more teams begin to fall out of contention, with teams like the Dodgers ready to stock up on more talent for their potential World Series run.
While the idea of Arenado and Velander sounds like a pipe dream, the rumors, based on the club’s past interest in the two players, have some truth to them.
However, only time will tell, and the Cardinals’ and Astros’ performances will determine whether either player is traded at all.
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