LOS ANGELES — Right now, the Dodgers are sitting in the Number Three seed for the playoffs in October. Mathematically, they could still catch the Phillies and get the Number Two and a first round bye, but let’s not live in Fantasyland. They’re going to be playing in the Wild Card round. But the question remains… against whom, exactly?
For most of the last two months, the answer seemed obvious. The New York Mets looked like they were a shoe-in for the playoffs, and even seemed to be on the verge of supplanting San Diego in the five hole. That was before their most recent nose-dive. Since August 1, the Metropolitans are 18-28. On that date they were in first place, a half a game ahead of the Phillies. Now, they’re 12 games behind the Fightin’ Phils and just dropped a weekend series with the last place Washington Nationals.
This poor play has put them as of today (9/22) in a flat-footed tie with the Cincinnati Reds with identical records of 80-76. Lurking just behind these two teams are the Dodgers’ NL West rivals, the Arizona Diamondbacks, just one game off the pace at 79-77. Even the San Francisco Giants, whom the Dodgers just took care of over the weekend have an outside chance of leapfrogging into October. They’re just three games behind the Reds and Mets.
The path right now seems to favor the Reds. With a series against the Pirates at home, and a visit to the Brewers on the final weekend. The Brewers would normally be a tough draw, but they will likely have wrapped up the Number One seed by then, so they’ll be resting guys in preparation for the NLDS. The Mets are next in line, but they have all their remaining games on the road, first against the Cubs, then against the Miami Marlins. That’s no picnic. The least likely scenario is one where the Diamondbacks get into the playoffs, as they have the third most difficult remaining schedule in the majors: three against the Dodgers and then three with the Padres to finish the year.
So who would you rather face? An ascendant Reds team? A slumping Mets squad? An Arizona team that sent LA packing two seasons ago in an embarrassing sweep? This years’ results seem to beg for an October showdown with the Reds. The Dodgers handled them pretty easily this year, winning five of six, including a sweep in the last week of August. The Mets took four of seven from the Dodgers and even in their wounded state, Lindor, Alonso, Soto, et al are a pretty formidable lineup to go up against in a three-game series.
As far as Arizona goes, right now the Dodgers have a 5-5 record against the D-backs. But they can also have a lot of say about whether or not they make it to October. They will send Ohtani, Snell, and Yamamoto to the mound against them this week, hoping to clinch the division in the desert (pool party, anyone?). If the Dodgers take two out of three or sweep the D-backs, that will essentially end the Arizona chances for getting back into this race. Anything, short of that and it’s still an open question.
One thing is certain, we’re in for a very interesting week of baseball, one in which your LA Dodgers can have a lot to do with what happens next. The good news is, whoever comes to Chavez Ravine next week will have to expend a lot of bullets to do it, and may not be able to get the pitching matchups it wants for the Wild Card round. The Dodgers, on the other hand, need to clinch, but can probably pick and choose how they use their pitchers this week, and will be in good shape come next Tuesday.
Get out the popcorn, folks!
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