Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers begin a crucial three-game series with the Padres down in San Diego on Tuesday night, and the confines of PetCo Park will no doubt be filled to capacity with lots of Dodger blue in the stands. On the field, the recent fortunes of both teams couldn’t be more different. Let’s take a look at what has transpired since the last clash with these division rivals, an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Friars on June 21-23, when the Dodgers eked out a mere seven runs over three games. Oh what a difference the last two months have made!
San Diego: Below .500 for the last two months
After that series sweep in June, the Padres record stood at 45-32, just a half-game behind the Dodgers, who left town at 44-30. Since that sweep, the Padres have become a very mediocre baseball team, only managing a 23-26 record in that stretch, and falling a full 13 games behind the division-leading Giants. As for the Dodgers, they went 33-17 over the same time period, and gained a game and a half on the Giants. A modest gain to be sure, but compared to the Padres, it is remarkable.
Though the Dodgers have their sights clearly set on the division crown, they are now an almost insurmountable 10.5 games ahead of the Padres for the first wild card spot. In fact, just yesterday, the Reds passed the Pads in the standings and if the season were to end today, San Diego would be out of the playoffs completely. Clearly there is going to be postseason baseball at Dodger Stadium. The only question that remains is whether or not it is in the wild card game or the NLDS.
SD Pitching dreadful since break
So what is to blame for this monumental collapse by a pre-season favorite to make the playoffs? Mostly what experts thought was going to be a strong suit of the team: its pitching. In the last thirty days, while the Dodgers’ pitching has been getting better and better despite being short-handed, the San Diego pitching has been flat-out dreadful. Its 5.05 ERA in the last month is good for 23rd out of thirty teams in MLB, and only the tanking Pirates, Marlins, Nationals, and Cubs have a worse ERA in the National League.
There isn’t a single starter who it seems manager Jayce Tingler can count on lately. Well, I take that back. Joe Musgrove has been pretty good since the All-Star Break, posting an ERA of 2.70. But that’s it. Chris Paddack and Blake Snell: both 4.50. Yu Darvish, nearly 7.00. Ryan Weathers, over 14.00! Jake Arrieta was picked up off waivers to stop the bleeding, but even that turned into a disaster.
And, after missing out on the Max Scherzer sweepstakes at the deadline, the Padres pickup at the time, Daniel Hudson, is underperforming, posting a 6.23 ERA in six relief appearances with the club. The only thing that is moderately dependable is the back end of the bullpen, with both Mark Melancon and Drew Pomeranz still posting legit numbers.
Offense okay, but misses Tatis when out
And to that the injury to the dynamic shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and you have the makings of a lot of L’s in the record books. The offense has been trying to keep the team afloat, but to no avail. Since the All-Star break the Padres have scored 163 runs. In comparison, the Dodgers, for all their wins, have only scored 171, so the offense of San Diego has been serviceable. Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Tatis (when healthy) have all had good second halves, so far. The one disappointment might be newcomer Adam Frazier, who had been leading the NL in hits with the Pirates, but is only hitting about .240 with the Padres.
Urias likely on Tuesday
So what do we have coming up this week on the mound? Still no Kershaw, sadly, as he continues to rehab that nagging arm soreness that has gone on over a month. However, the Dodgers’ have lined up their pitching as well as can be expected given how short-handed they’ve been of late. Though it hasn’t been officially announced yet, Julio Urias figures to come off the IL for the start on Tuesday night. He got plunked by a pitch in his last start in New York against the Mets, so hit the IL for the entirety of the homestand. However, he only had a calf contusion, so the IL stint was probably more to do with being better safe than sorry than with any really serious injury.
The Padres don’t have a pitcher announced for Tuesday, but Yu Darvish is most likely to get the ball at some point during the series, so look for him to start either Tuesday or Thursday with the other game becoming a bullpen game. Darvish has been on the IL as well with a lower back strain, which might account for his poor performance on the mound of late.
Walker Buehler on Wednesday
The only for-sure match-up of the series will be on Wednesday, when Walker Buehler locks horns with the Dodgers’ World Series foe Blake Snell, who has turned in a pretty disappointing first season with San Diego. He still struggles to get deep into games; his made 23 starts, but only pitched 103 innings this year, less than five innings a start. At five innings, Walker Buehler is barely out of the gate.
Scherzer gets the ball on Thursday
Then, in the series finale, it will be Max Scherzer against Darvish or whoever draws the short straw. And if the Padres’ pitching struggles weren’t enough already, just on Monday, the team announced that it was firing pitching coach Larry Rothschild. So to say it is a pitching staff in disarray is to put it lightly.
However, Dodger fans best be careful about taking this series too lightly. We know all about the Padres and their little brother complex. They are sure to be up for the game, complete with Manny Machado running out ground balls and the whole nine yards. That being said, on paper at least, it’s an opportunity for the Dodgers’ to put the Padres hopes of unseating them in the West this year to bed once and for all.
