Cody Snavely
The Dodgers have made their mark this offseason, spending over $1.2 billion this winter. The Dodgers clearly needed to make a change after back-to-back embarrassing losses in the NLDS to the Padres and Diamondbacks. Over the winter, the Dodgers have signed arguably the best player on the planet in Shohei Ohtani, the best pitcher on the market in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and balanced their lineup with the recent signing of Teoscar Hernández. But the real question is, are they done?
Where is the Dodgers payroll in 2024?
With the spending spree, the Dodgers have been on this winter, their payroll has ballooned compared to recent years. The 2024 CBT is $237 million, and the Dodgers are estimated to blow past that number. The Dodgers have an estimated 2024 payroll of $299.8 million, according to Spotrac. With the Dodgers so close to the $300 million mark, it would not surprise anyone if they exceeded that number.
Compared to other teams this offseason, the Dodgers could show their strength in large part of their massive TV deal. In baseball, there is a huge problem with many teams and uncertainty with their cash flow due to their TV deals. Last year, Diamond Sports Group, the owner of Bally Sports, the TV provider for teams such as the Padres, Rangers, Brewers, and Guardians, declared bankruptcy. This has led many of those mentioned teams to hold off on doing a spending spree or, like the Brewers and Guardians, try to shed salary in any way they can.
Dodgers TV deal and Ohtani revenue impact
The Dodgers have the opposite problem. The Dodgers TV deal was signed with Time Warner for $8.35 billion and runs until 2039, which gives the team around $330 million annually. In perspective, the two biggest East Coast market teams, the Yankees and the Red Sox, do not come close to the revenue the Dodgers receive. YES Network provides the Yankees $143 million, while NESN provides nearly $104 million for the Red Sox.
The Dodgers have also committed a lot of money to two of Japan’s biggest stars to make the Dodgers “Japan’s team.” When the Dodgers signed Ohtani to the record-setting 10-year $700 million contract, many scoffed at the number. However, Keith Law of the Athletic had an article published that Ohtani brought the Angels between $70-$100 million in ad revenue. Now, add the new Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and all eyes in Japan will be on the Dodgers, bringing in more money for the team and the league.
What does the team address next?
The 2024 Dodgers are shaping up to be an all-time squad. However, there is still room for improvement. The most logical next step is to solve the backend of the rotation. With Walker Buehler on a potential delayed start/innings limit, Yamamoto transitioning from the NPB to the MLB, and young starters Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan heading into their sophomore year. So, what are the options?
Is a Shane Bieber/Clase trade possible?
Shane Bieber has been linked to LA for a few years, dating back to 2021, but recent success from the Guardians led them to retain the right-handed starter in 2022. However, the 2023 season was a huge step backward for Cleveland, which saw them miss the postseason and beloved manager Terry Francona retiring. The Guardians logically would like to get whatever value they can from Bieber, as he is a free agent after the 2024 season.
Recent health-related issues have plummeted his value, but it remains to be seen if the Guardians will move him. If they will, the Dodgers have been rumored to be interested in Bieber and All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, so a blockbuster trade centered around those two makes sense for LA, which we have already discussed here on DodgersBeat.
Will Kershaw and the Dodgers reunite?
The Dodgers will also likely bring back left-handed starter Clayton Kershaw, whose future is up in the air after an offseason shoulder surgery. Kershaw, who will be out most if not all of the 2024 year, is aiming for a late summer comeback and would surely help the Dodgers in October (barring that he is healthy). As I have mentioned in previous articles and on the Bleed Los Podcast, the Dodgers could look to get Kershaw on a 2-year deal that would allow him to rehab most of 2024 and have an entire 2025 season to close out his Hall of Fame career potentially.
While the Texas Rangers continue to be linked to Kershaw due to proximity, I do not imagine Kershaw walking away and joining the defending champions. As mentioned, the Rangers also fall into that group of teams with their TV deal and are hesitant to spend. Kershaw likely will also not want his Dodgers tenure to end on a game one NLDS loss where he could not get out of the first inning.
Will the Brewers trade Burnes and Williams?
The last blockbuster option could be a trade lined up for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, who the Dodgers have been linked to all offseason. However, another name I have seen thrown around is adding All-Star closer Devin Williams in the trade. If the Dodgers are set on adding another starter and bullpen option, this is the best option available, but it would also cost significantly more.
Devin Williams is a name that has started to gain traction over recent weeks, especially regarding the Dodgers, who are seeking help in the rotation and backend of the bullpen. In 2023, Williams posted a 1.53 ERA and 36 saves, 87 SO in 58.2 innings. Williams, who also won the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year award, has been an elite option for the Brewers as a setup man and took over the closer job when Josh Hader was traded to the Padres.
A Williams trade looks plausible because the Brewers could follow a similar pattern with Josh Hader and trade Williams in his second year of arbitration (2024) to get the most value back before he likely walks in free agency.
Dodgers watching Josh Hader’s market?
The last name the Dodgers have shown much interest in is left-handed closer Josh Hader. Tom Verducci from Sports Illustrated alluded that the Dodgers were the only serious team eyeing Padres all-star closer Josh Hader. In 2023, Hader had one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 1.28 ERA, 85 SO, 13.5 K/9, and 32 saves. Hader has been rumored to try and beat Edwin Diaz‘s deal from the Mets last offseason, which saw the All-Star closer sign for 5-years $102 million.
The Dodgers seem unlikely to cave in on a deal north of $100 million for a closer, but if Hader’s market continues to drag, we could see the Dodgers swoop in and get him closer to the $80 million range. The addition of Hader would allow the Dodgers to keep other arms in their bullpen, such as Kyle Hurt, who would be a hot topic in the trade market. Hader, Hurt, and Evan Phillips combined in the 7th,8th, and 9th would not bode well for opposing teams.
Conclusion
With February inching closer along with the start of Spring Training, the Dodgers will continue to put the final touches on their star-studded roster. In the coming days and weeks, I expect the Dodgers to add at least two starters and another bullpen option. Whether it is a block-buster trade remains to be seen, but the mighty Dodgers will no doubt make another move.
