Dodgers Opinion: Club Option Predictions

(Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

The 2024 Major League Baseball season is officially over after the Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in five games in the World Series, and thus, the offseason has begun.

Last year, after back-to-back early exits in the National League Division Series to the San Diego Padres in 2022 and the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023, Los Angeles Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and General Manager Brandon Gomes were tasked with a crucial offseason, and now they look to set this roster up for a repeat.

First up on the to-do list is what to do with the team’s two club options, which include veteran position players shortstop Miguel Rojas and catcher Austin Barnes, while also waiting for the decision on Clayton Kershaw‘s player option.

Both the player and the teams have five days after the World Series (November 4th) to decide whether to opt in or offer the option.

Miguel Rojas: $5 million (Decline)

Los Angeles Dodgers veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas had a career year offensively after an atrocious first year back with the Dodgers in 2023. Rojas, in back-to-back seasons, got more playing time than he and the Dodgers had hoped, as the team acquired him from the Miami Marlins two winters ago to be a plug-and-play utility infielder.

A season-ending leg/knee injury to Dodgers then shortstop Gavin Lux in spring training opened the door for an everyday role for Rojas, and in 2024, he would get the call again when Mookie Betts fractured his hand in mid-June.

Betts, upon his return, would move back to right field, a position for which he has won six Gold Glove awards after struggling at the premier infield position.

What remained solid for Rojas was his defense. Despite being thirty-five, Rojas was one of the league’s best defensive players, ranking in the 96th percentile in OAA (Outs Above Average), 90th percentile in Fielding Run-Value, and elite .993 fielding percentage at shortstop.

However, the Dodgers got extra production this season with the bat. Rojas hit .283/.337/.410 with a .748 OPS and 111 wRC+ and was a key contributor at the bottom of the lineup, getting on base and setting up the big three (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman).

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Unfortunately for Rojas, in the final weeks of the season, the veteran suffered an adductor injury, greatly limiting his production. While Rojas attempted to play through it in the National League Division Series, he was replaced by utilityman Tommy Edman as the primary shortstop and would only get to start one more game the rest of the postseason.

Rojas’s injury was severe enough that it would require off-season surgery immediately after the team finished playing. Rojas told the media that he would have sports hernia surgery, a similar offseason surgery that fan favorite Kiké Hernández had last offseason, and he should be ready by spring training.

With Rojas entering his age thirty-six season, coming off two major surgeries in a span of three years (wrist surgery in the 2022/2023 offseason), and having a Spotrac market value at $2.7 million, I expect the Dodgers to decline the option and perhaps rework a cheaper one-year deal as Rojas has admitted he’d like to remain in Los Angeles to close out his career.

Los Angeles’s middle infield depth is on the thin side, so there could be a scenario where they play it safe and pick up the option regardless. However, with a big fish on the free agent market in Willy Adames, whom the Dodgers have been connected to in recent years, I expect them to look for an upgrade at the position for the long term.

Austin Barnes: $3.5 million (Decline)

This is where things get interesting or exciting, depending on who you ask. Coming into this season, Austin Barnes was the longest tenured position player with the Dodgers, playing his entire big league career going back to 2015 when the Dodgers acquired him from the Miami Marlins.

Over those ten seasons in Dodger Blue, Barnes has been quoted by many as the team’s leader and has been veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw’s “personal” catcher since the team moved on from AJ Ellis during the 2016 season.

However, Barnes will be entering his age thirty-five season and was an afterthought for the Dodgers’ catching situation this year, getting zero starts and zero at-bats in October.

Overall Barnes numbers were about where you’d expect a backup catcher to be where the veteran righty hit .264/.331/.307 with a .638 OPS and 86 wRC+ which is not headline grabbing numbers.

As a backup catcher, your main priority should be defense, and that is where we have seen a drop-off in production for Barnes. While he ranked above average in blocking (82nd percentile), he was below average in Caught Stealing Above Average (6th percentile), Framing (53rd percentile), and Pop Time (20th percentile).

What also does not help Barnes’s case is that the Dodgers have three viable backup options, top minor league prospects Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, and Diego Cartaya, who are ready for a shot at the big league level.

The Dodgers would also like a solid offensive option on the bench to give catcher Will Smith more off days in the regular season, as there has to be a correlation in terms of games started at catcher and his offensive drop in the second half of the season.

Barnes also has a Spotrac value of just one million dollars, so the option is almost four times overvalued for his overall production. However, like Rojas, the Dodgers could decline and always work out a new deal that gives them more flexibility behind the dish.

Clayton Kershaw: $10 million Player Option (Opts in)

Last on our list is veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw, who last offseason signed a one-year deal with a $10 million player option for the 2025 season.

Kershaw, during a pregame interview with the Fox Sports broadcast crew, stated that he would be back for another season, adding to his already Hall of Fame-worthy career.

Kershaw missed most of the season rehabbing from off-season shoulder surgery but made seven starts before suffering a season-ending toe injury late in the season.

The big question is whether Kershaw will need another offseason surgery. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hinted that this was not the first time the lefty had dealt with the bone spur in his big toe.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Kershaw felt fine physically with the elbow and shoulder this season but posted an unusual stat line, throwing only thirty innings with a career-high 4.50 ERA and 3.53 FIP.

Clayton Kershaw is also only thirty-two strikeouts away from three thousand in his career and if he can reach that goal he’d be only the twentieth pitcher to reach the milestone in Major League Baseball history.

Kershaw’s market value on Spotrac is only $7.1 million, and with his age and injury history, it would be hard to find much more than $10 million in the open market despite being one of the best pitchers of his generation. That is why I imagine he stays with the Dodgers and tries to get one more season under his belt and compete for a third World Series championship.

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Written by Cody Snavely

Cody Snavely has been the co-editor of DodgersBeat since February 2023. He has also written for multiple websites, such as Dodgers Way, Dodgers Low-Down, and Dodgers Tailgate. A Wilmington University graduate, Snavely is an avid Dodgers fan who uses his advanced baseball knowledge to keep fans updated on the latest storylines, rumors, and opinions on Dodgers baseball.

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