Cody Snavely
The 2024 MLB season has not been too kind to the Detroit Tigers, who had expectations entering Spring Training. Many picked them to take a step forward in their lengthy rebuild, and some MLB insiders projected them to not only make the postseason but also win the American League Central.
So far in 2024, the Tigers have fallen below expectations and are six games under .500. They sit alone in fourth place, fifteen games out from the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians.
Not much has gone right for the Tigers this season except for the dominant start by left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who is currently the American League Cy Young Award favorite.
However, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic, the Detroit Tigers could consider trading the lefty if they are blown away by an offer that will give them enough young, major league-ready talent that it could jump-start their contention run.
Bowden lists two teams with the resources and means to make a deal possible: the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles.
Any trade for Skubal would be massive for good reason
Skubal, 27, was drafted originally by the National League West rival Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2017 Amateur player draft but opted to play one more season with Seattle University instead. However, during the 2018 MLB draft, Skubal was selected in the ninth round by the Detroit Tigers, where the 6′-3″ lefty would sign.
It wouldn’t take Skubal long to make his Major League debut. Just two seasons later, in August 2020, the left-hander from Arizona would make his first start and pick up his first win later that week.
Skubal pitched to a 4.34 ERA in 149.1 innings in 2021, his first full rookie season, but lowered it each year after that, posting his best career ERA mark last season with a 2.80 ERA in limited 80.1 innings.
In 2022, Skubal faced a setback when he was placed on the 15-day injured list with left arm fatigue, which led to flexor tendon surgery and the end of his season. However, he didn’t let this deter him. Upon his activation in the 2023 season, he showed his resilience by winning September Pitcher of the Month, finishing his final five starts with a 4–0 record and 0.90 ERA.
Currently, Skubal is off to the best start of his career and is among the favorites for the American League Cy Young award as the southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA, 179 ERA+, 0.938 WHIP, 2.69 FIP, and 112 strikeouts in ninety-seven innings pitched.
Skubal also ranks highly in many metrics on Baseball Savant, ranking in the 98th percentile in pitching run value, 100th in fastball run value, 90th in fastball velocity, 92nd in whiff percentage, 89th in strikeouts percentage, and 89th in xERA.
Prior to this year, the Detroit Tigers and Skubal avoided arbitration, coming to an agreement on a one-year $2.65 million contract, but the 27-year-old lefty has two years of control left after this season, becoming an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2026 season, along with two arbitration years in 2025 and 2026.
In his young career, Skubal has posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 476.1 innings for a Tigers team that is struggling offensively with the fifth-ranked farm system according to MLB.com’s pre-season rankings.
Given Skubal’s impressive performance and potential, any potential trade involving the controllable left-handed pitcher will undoubtedly be a significant move. While it may come at a cost, there could be alternative strategies to make any deal less expensive, sparking intrigue and speculation among baseball enthusiasts and potential trade partners.
Would the Dodgers consider taking on the Javy Báez contract?
The 2021/2022 MLB offseason was the winter of the shortstop, with many big team franchise-altering players, such as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Javier Báez, hitting the open market, all seeking long-term mega deals.
The Detroit Tigers, who have missed the postseason every season since 2014, decided to go “all in” and sign shortstop Javier Báez to a six-year $140 million contract with an opt-out after the 2023 season.
At the time, the move was seen as a win as the Tigers were desperately looking for a new face of the franchise to build their team around, and Báez, up until that point, had a .264/.307/.477 slash line, was one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and was the runner-up in the 2018 National League Most Valuable Player, where the then 25-year-old hit .290 with a .881 OPS.
However, since inking the deal, it has been a nightmare for both the Tigers and Báez. The former Cub suffered a massive decline in production. In his tenure as a Tiger, Báez hit .233/.264/.344 and ended up opting into the remaining four-year $98 million half of the contract.
It has not gotten any better for Báez thus far this season as the former 2017 World Series Champion is hitting an abysmal .183/.209/.247 and an OPS of .456 in 186 at-bats.
Báez has also seen his defensive metrics take a hit this season. He currently ranks in the 18th percentile in outs above average, whereas in 2023, the defensive guru ranked in the 95th percentile.
The Dodgers, who do have a need for a full-time shortstop, could look at Báez filling that void as perhaps a change of scenery could do well for the former all-star.
Prior to the injury to Mookie Betts, I argued along with many others that it was time to send the Betts at shortstop experiment as Betts ranked among the worst defense shortstops in the entire league while also seeing his offensive numbers dip, likely due to fatigue of pre-game work trying to learn a new position in his thirties.
While the Dodgers have gotten a boost with Miguel Rojas‘s resurgence, who has always had an elite glove, a short has given the Dodgers plenty of added production with his bat. The veteran right-handed hitter is hitting .284/.327/.440 and has an OPS+ of 117.
However, Rojas, who is in his thirty-fiveth season, could see those numbers dip now that he is an everyday hitter due to Betts’ loss at the position. Last season, when Rojas took over the starting gig after Gavin Lux tore his ACL/MCL, he was awful at the plate, hitting .236 with a 66 OPS+.
Rojas is two years removed from right wrist surgery, which could have been to blame for his offensive woes last season, but his career .259/.312/.358 and .669 OPS gives me less hope that he’ll sustain his offensive success over the next two months.
What could a potential deal look like?
A deal where the Dodgers acquire high-end talent attached to an underwater contract is not a new concept to the team. Most recently, in 2020, the Dodgers did the same to pry Mookie Betts away from the Boston Red Sox, attaching veteran left-handed pitcher David Price to the deal.
Even with the potential inclusion of Javier Báez, finalizing the trade will be a complex process. The significant financial implications, including the movement of a substantial amount of money, will need to be carefully considered.
Javier Báez is owed $73 million over the next three seasons, not counting this season ($25 million). If the Dodgers could get the Tigers to eat $30 million, this would bring Báez’s AAV down to $14.3 million.
The Tigers, who have the already mentioned fifth-ranked farm system in the MLB, would likely ask for one or multiple pitching prospects to replace their left-handed starter but also want major league-ready bats to plug in the lineup this year or 2025.
The Dodgers have a promising farm system, and several players could be part of the potential trade. Names to watch out for include Nick Frasso, River Ryan, Jackson Ferris, Kyle Hurt, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski, who was recently promoted to Triple-A.
As for the position player side, the Tigers would be interested in one of the three young catchers, with Dalton Rushing or Diego Cartaya headlining the deal. I’d have to imagine one of Gavin Lux or Miguel Vargas would also be included.
According to Baseball Trade Values, Skubal is valued at $96.7 million, Báez is valued at -$85.8, and the potential $30 million cash considerations bring the trade value to $40.9 million. However, we could see that value peaking at $50-$60 million in a competitive market.
Or the Dodgers could take on the entire Báez contract to lessen Detroit’s return package. The ideas are limitless.
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
