Cody Snavely
As we enter the final five weeks of the 2023 MLB season, one name that we will continue to hear about well after the end of the postseason is two-way player Shohei Ohtani, who is set to hit the free agent market this winter. However, things have taken a drastic turn as it was revealed late last night that Ohtani, who was removed from the Angels game yesterday due to arm fatigue, has a tear in his UCL. This will affect Ohtani and his potential payday and the numerous teams that will be bidding for his services this offseason, including the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Dodgers fans know by now that the team has been on the Ohtani train since this past offseason, as it was reported by a variety of outlets that LA was trying to shed as much payroll to stay under the CBT threshold in hopes of resetting their books so they could make the push for Ohtani. Back in spring, when many fans, including myself, were wary of taking a gap year in hopes of getting a player in the off-season, it seemed strange. However, if the push is still to get Ohtani after the news of his injury, it will be very intriguing to see how the Dodgers and other teams go on with their offers.
The truth about Ohtani’s injuries
Shohei Ohtani has been a once-in-a-generation player. Being able to pitch and hit both at an elite level is an oddity in itself. However, it may now start to take a toll on his body. In terms of pitching, Ohtani has already had Tommy John surgery in 2018, where he could not pitch the entire year as he recovered. Still, similar to Bryce Harper, he was able to come back earlier than other position players and DH. If Ohtani’s tear in his UCL is damaged enough to get another TJS, that would be cause for concern. Pitchers who have multiple TJS in their career typically do not bode well for future success, and the Dodgers already have two players going through their second round of the surgery in Dustin May and Walker Buehler.
In this recent stretch in August, Ohtani has also taken extended days off in the rotation as his arm or body was weakening due to the toll of playing both positions on a regular basis. It also does not help that for the Angels to make the playoffs or finish with a record over .500, Ohtani has had to push his abilities to the limit, which cannot be suitable for his health. Compared to other super-stars with multiple hitters around them who can pick them up on days they do not feel 100%, Ohtani does not have that option.
Free Agency 2024
Ohtani is set to hit the open market after the season ends, and with the Angels missing the postseason again, it is not hard to imagine that he would want out of Anaheim. Regarding the Dodgers plans, while we do not know what they were planning to offer Ohtani, it is rare to see them offer huge multi-year deals unless your name is Mookie Betts. However, Ohtani is on another level compared to Betts as he can hit with the best of them and pitch, which is why, before his recent UCL tear, he was due for a historic payday. I see the Dodgers going one of two regarding the contract offer.
Scenario One: The Dodgers offer a short-term deal with high AAV and perhaps an Opt-Out or two, which would, in a sense, work for both parties. This deal favors the Dodgers as they get a super-star DH and everything that comes with Ohtani, such as media attention and money. If Ohtani does need TJS, this could also work in his favor as it allows him to work his way to being a pitcher while having the option to opt-out and test free agency again.
Scenario Two: The Dodgers offer Ohtani a long-term deal of around 8-10 years, but the deal is filled with numerous incentives to increase the AAV. Suppose Ohtani wants to find a home with a perennial World Series contender with the Dodgers but also wants to pitch again with a guaranteed contract in years. LA could include incentives with innings pitched to increase his AAV, similar to what former Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda had.
Conclusion
No matter how you shake it, Ohtani and teams that will be interested in him come free agency will have many questions about what to offer the superstar player. I feel bad for Ohtani as he has been stuck on the Angels for his career so far, and they have nearly sabotaged his upcoming payday with this recent UCL injury. Only time will tell if the Dodgers change their mind on going all in on Ohtani, or maybe they sit out and wait for another big fish in Juan Soto in 2025 or pivot to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 2024 if he elects to come to the MLB.
