Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — What I’m about to say is going to sound a little sacrilegious to some Dodger fans, but it’s a thought that has been pushing itself on me more and more lately. It’s time for us to truly appreciate Julio Urias, and I’m not sure that we are.
Of course, because of their country of origin, their position on the diamond, and the team they play for, there will always be inevitable comparisons between pitchers Urías and his fellow Mexican Fernando Valenzuela. But, when all is said and done, it may very well be Urías who ends up with the better career. There. I said it.
Let’s be clear. There is only one Fernando Valenzuela when it comes to the impact he had on baseball culture in Los Angeles. His unorthodox delivery, unhittable screwball, and unbelievable rookie year all put him in a different category of player from any other Dodger pitcher. He single-handedly transformed the Dodger fanbase to what it is today. And for that, he deserves to have his number retired, as my colleagues over at the Bleed Los podcast are always lobbying for.
However, and hear me out on this one, in terms of the pitcher who I think will end up having a better career in the big leagues? I think the case can be made for Urías.
It’s always tough to compare pitchers from different eras, but if we look at Urías and Valenzuela at similar spots in their career (the first 7 seasons), it’s a pretty close comparison in my estimation. Of course, as far as the cumulative numbers are concerned (Innings Pitched, Starts, Wins) Urías trails Fernando by a whole lot. Through age 25, Valenzuela has a good 1,000 innings more under his belt than Urías has pitched so far. And because of that huge workload, he’s got the edge in wins (99-45), strikeouts (1254-557) and complete games (84-0!). Different time, folks.
However, if you look at the stat categories that are based on averages per 9 innings, the entire conversation changes. Julio has slightly better numbers in ERA (2.92 to 2.94), WHIP (1.103 to 1.180), strikeouts per nine (9.0 to 7.9), ERA+ (143 to 119) and winning percentage (.726 to .593).
Of course, that gigantic workload on the young Fernando started taking its toll as the years piled up. The downslope of Valenzuela’s career (most of it away from LA) was pedestrian at best. On the other hand, the Dodgers have been very careful (some might say too careful) about limiting Urías’s workload, sometimes almost to the point of absurdity.
I don’t care to count the number of times El Culichi was rolling in a game, only to be pulled out after 86 pitches or some other ridiculously low pitch count. But the Dodgers know the asset that they have in their prized lefty. They want him to be pitching another ten years in the big leagues, and they’re using him accordingly. And, if old school fans like me get bent out of shape, that’s just too bad.
The point of this is not to force Dodger fans to choose between Team Julio and Team Fernando. They’re both great pitchers. What I’m arguing for is that we don’t take the greatness that we are witnessing in Urías for granted. Valenzuela was a sensation. Urías barely cracks the headlines in the national press.
Julio finished 7th in Cy Young voting last year, after posting a 20-win season and a 2.96 ERA. In 2022, he’s arguably better. After a slow start (win-wise anyway), Urías is 14-7 with a 2.32 ERA and an awesome WHIP of 0.95. And, in the second half of the year, he’s been otherworldly. In his last seven games, he 6-1 with a 1.05 ERA. But the national press are all fawning over Jacob deGrom, whose ERA since returning from the IL is 2.15. Excuse me?
Mark my words. If the Dodgers sign Urías to a long-term deal (and they should), in about 20 years from now, he will be mentioned in the same breath as Koufax, Kershaw, and Drysdale. And, not so long after that, the number 7 will be hanging with honor from the club level at Dodger Stadium.
Right next to number 34, I hope.
