Cody Snavely
As we enter the middle of June, the 2024 Major League Baseball trade deadline is inching closer, and many contending teams are looking to add what they can for a deep October run.
As you would expect, the Dodgers will be one of the handful of teams shopping around this deadline as they look to get the monkey off their backs after back-to-back disappointing early October exits.
The Los Angeles Dodgers had one of the best offseasons any fan could want. They brought in star talent on both sides of the ball, and entering Spring Training, the vibes and expectations for the team were at an all-time high.
However, the biggest storyline not named Shohei Ohtani was the return of former Dodgers top prospect Gavin Lux, who missed the entire 2023 season due to an ACL/MCL tear suffered in a baserunning blunder in March.
Lux, 26, was poised for yet another opportunity to claim the starting shortstop gig after the Dodgers assured him that same goal a year prior by letting Corey Seager and Trea Turner walk in free agency in back-to-back offseason.
Unfortunately, Lux’s return to the field was not as smooth as expected. He faced difficulties in the Cactus League, particularly in his defensive play. This led to an unexpected decision by the Dodgers to move Lux back to second base, with Mookie Betts taking over the shortstop position.
Betts, a selfless veteran, took the challenge head-on, explaining it was an exciting goal for him this season as it had not been a position he had played full-time since high school.
We are approaching the halfway mark of the season, and the Betts and Lux situation has done the Dodgers no favors. It is a glaring hole that must be addressed in the coming weeks before the July 30th deadline.
Lux has not lived up to that 2019 Minor League Player of the Year
Let’s take a trip down memory lane to the 2019 MLB season. The Dodgers are in the midst of a 106-win season, which would be their new franchise record led by 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger and the first full season from shortstop Corey Seager after being placed on the 60-day IL with Tommy John surgery in 2018.
The Dodgers entered the season with the seventh-best farm system in the sport. On the heels of back-to-back World Series appearances, Los Angeles wasn’t just poised for current success; it also had a foundation for future success.
Leading the charge in the Dodgers minor league system was a young middle infield prospect from Kenosha, Wisconsin by the name of Gavin Lux.
If 2019 was the year of Cody Bellinger at the Major League level, 2019 would be known as the year of Gavin Lux at the Minor League level, as the then 22-year-old prospect shot up to the number two overall ranking entering the 2020 season.
Lux turned eyes after hitting .347/.421/.607 with an OPS of 1.028, finishing between the top ten in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging between Double-A and Triple-A.
Lux also led all Dodgers farm players with 159 hits and 99 runs scored, which, by September, earned him his Major League call-up. He would stay the rest of the season, including making the Dodgers postseason roster against the Washington Nationals, which the team lost in five games.
However, his success in 2019 earned him the 2019 Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year award, but with Corey Seager under contract until the end of the 2021 season and a future trade for Trea Turner would block Lux, who never got a real opportunity to shine at the big leagues.
Lux would have a starting role as the Dodgers primary second baseman for the 2022 season, where the left-handed hitter put up a respectable .276/.346/.399 line, along with an OPS+ of 106. However, the Dodgers never got the production that was showcased in the minors.
After Trea Turner signed a massive 11-year $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, the Dodgers were prepared to give Lux his long-awaited shot to become the starting shortstop of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, tragedy struck as Lux tore his ACL/MCL, ending his 2023 campaign before it even began. The Dodgers would turn to Miguel Rojas and Mookie Betts to fill the void and also acquire Amed Rosario from the Cleveland Guardians. However, Lux would watch from the sidelines as the Dodgers season ended in Arizona, being swept in the National League Division Series.
Fast-forward to the 2024 season. The Dodgers were yet again ready to hand the keys to Lux as the team’s primary shortstop, but after a disastrous spring, the Dodgers pulled the plug and moved Betts to the role.
So far in 2024, Lux’s bat has been a problem. As of June 10th, 2024, Lux has hit .216/.268/.292 with an OPS of .560, OPS+ of 60, and wRC+ of 64 in fifty games and 183 plate appearances.
Lux in a minimum of 150 plate appearances ranks:
- 14th worst wRC+ (64) (3rd worst among 2B)
- 12th worst SLG
- 24th worst OBP
- 45th worst AVG
Lux among qualified candidates along ranks in the 12th percentile in xwOBA, 39th percentile in xBA, 13th percentile in xSLG, 12th in barrel percentage, 26th in Hard Hit percentage, and 73rd in outs-above-average.
Lux is part of the Dodgers’ bottom order, where the seven-eight-nine hitters rank in the bottom third of the league in batting average, slugging, and on-base percentage.
Moving Betts on short notice was a disservice to a perennial MVP candidate
On every roster, each player has a role or purpose for their team. For the Los Angeles Dodgers, that is no different. The heart and soul of the team is veteran left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw, who, despite not appearing so far in 2024, still makes his presence known to the players, both new and old, and the anticipation toward his return is high.
The most talented is, no doubt, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who is doing things on a baseball field we have never seen before. Team comedian, that honor goes to Kiké Hernández, who, according to many teammates, makes a 162-game reason fun with his presence in the clubhouse.
However, Mookie Betts holds a different mantle as he is not only the Dodgers’ most valuable player, but he is also the player who makes the Dodgers work.
Betts showcased how valuable he was to the Dodgers in 2023, when he put together his best season in Dodger Blue, finishing runner-up in the National League MVP despite leading all of baseball in WAR at 8.3, the second-highest mark of his career (2018).
Betts was simply on another planet in 2023, collecting 179 hits, 40 doubles, a career-high 39 home runs, 107 RBI, and a .307/.408/.579 slash line in 152 games played.
However, Betts’ defense showed how valuable he was in being able to move from right field to second base and even shortstop for a few weeks while Miguel Rojas was banged up.
Betts, who was drafted as a middle infielder by the Boston Red Sox, had to change position prior to his call-up in 2014, as Red Sox icon Dustin Pedroia held down the position.
The change to second base brought Betts a feeling of happiness he had not felt on a baseball field in some time. Although he viewed it more as a job, getting an opportunity to play the position he always wanted to play was a unique opportunity for him.
The Dodgers rewarded the 2018 AL MVP winner by shifting him to become their full-time second baseman for the upcoming 2024 season. The Dodgers’ offseason and how they built their team were also contingent on Betts playing there every day.
The Dodgers opted to re-sign veteran Jason Heyward, who continued to show his gold glove ability in right field and was serviceable enough with the bat against righties to get the majority of the playing time.
However, after an awful spring, the Dodgers would shift gears less than two weeks before the start of the regular season, moving Betts to the shortstop position, a position he has not played full-time since high school.
Betts, a selfless player, stated that it doesn’t matter where he plays; all he wants to do is win, and if playing shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers meant that, then he would continue to do it.
The most important thing for me is winning; You can put me wherever. As long as I’m on the diamond, I’m going to do the best I can do and we’ll see what happens after that.
Betts on his move to SS in March
At the start of the season, all seemed well as Betts, despite a few mental errors at the position, made up for it with his bat, winning National League Player of the Month in April thanks to a .368/.477/.624 slash line and a 1.101 OPS, 46 hits, ten doubles, two triples, six home runs, 23 RBI, and eight stolen bases.
Up until that point, Betts was a league leader in several key statistics, including fWAR (2.8), wRC+ (213), wOBA (.477), OPS (1.101), OBP (.477), AVG (.368), BB/K (1.63), H (46), R (29). He also demonstrated his versatility by playing above-average shortstop, ranking 64th in OAA (Outs Above Average).
However, as the weeks have gone on and we enter the dog days of summer, we have begun to see the effects of Betts playing the position regularly and following a rigorous pre-game routine that has him out every day fielding ground balls.
Since May 1st, Betts has experienced a dip in his offensive numbers, with a batting average of .255, thirty-five hits, four homers, fourteen RBIs, and nineteen runs scored in thirty-four games. This downward trend has continued as the month progressed.
Since May 20th, we have seen another nose dive in production. The April POTM is hitting .236 with seventeen hits, two homers, eight RBIs, and eight runs scored in eighteen games.
However, the most alarming aspect has been the quality of defense. In April, Betts was an above-average fielder, ranking 63rd in OAA, but as of June 10th, Betts ranks in the 1st percentile, making him the worst fielder among qualified shortstops.
Despite the evidence of his struggles, Betts has reiterated that he is fine and that this is the best he has felt in years.
The Dodgers seem to be open to other opportunities, per Bob Nightengale, who stated that they are looking at the shortstop market, with Blue Jays Bo Bichette and Brewers Willy Adames at the top of their wish list.
Options moving forward?
The Dodgers have one of three options: solve the problem internally, trade for a middle infielder, or continue to play Betts at shortstop and Lux at second.
If the Dodgers look to solve the problem internally, they do have a few options to choose from, whether those players are in the major or minor leagues.
The first internal player would be giving veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas his flowers and reward him with the starting gig at the position.
Rojas, who was forced into the starting role last season due to Gavin Lux’s season-ending injury, had a lackluster season at the dish, finishing with an OPS+ of 66 in 124 games.
However, in 2024, it has been a much different story as Rojas has shinned in his limited opportunities off the bench, hitting .283/.336/.434 with a .771 OPS and a 119 OPS+ in 107 plate appearances.
Rojas also gives the Dodgers a much-needed boost in the fielding department. The glove guru is ranked in the 93rd percentile in OAA, one of the best in the National League.
Externally, fixing the problem gets a bit more complicated as the expanded postseason allows more mediocre teams to enter the dance, and teams are only willing to part with their trade chips if an offer blows them away.
The two obvious choices would be Toronto Blue Jays starting shortstop Bo Bichette and Milwaukee’s Willy Adames. However, Toronto’s general manager, Ross Atkins, did not seem too keen on the idea of trading Bo this season, and the Brewers are currently running away with the National League Central.
The Dodgers could consider trading lesser options, such as White Sox shortstop Paul DeJong, who has hit .237/.286/.474 with an OPS+ of 113 and twelve home runs—albeit with a 32.9% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate—for the White Sox.
A longshot option could be Colorado’s shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, but with it being a National League West rival, that would be difficult. But knowing the Dodgers, they could take a risk on Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s playing second now opposite Bichette in Toronto.
If the Dodgers stand pat with Betts at shortstop, they could look to bolster other positions to help the offensive output that Lux has brought to the table, looking at outfielders like left-handed Jesse Winker (125 wRC+), Tyler O’Neill (133 wRC+) or even Jazz Chisholm Jr.(109 wRC+).
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