Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Julio Urías wasn’t supposed to get arrested. Dustin May wasn’t supposed to get hurt. Tony Gonsolin wasn’t supposed to need Tommy John. Clayton Kershaw wasn’t supposed to have trouble finding the strike zone after returning from the IL. Lance Lynn wasn’t supposed to be awful. Walker Buehler wasn’t supposed to be shut down after just two innings of rehab.
But all those things happened, and now the Dodgers, sure winners of the NL West, are facing a postseason run with a starting rotation in disarray. And, in October, the Dodgers need to throw out the depth chart and go with the best pitchers they’ve got. And this year anyway, the best pitchers the Dodgers have right now are Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Ryan Pepiot. It’s these guys that the team will need to turn to if they have any chance of playing in the Fall Classic this season. Let’s look at each one, and talk about how they might be used.
Bobby Miller (2023: 101.2 IP, 9-3, 3.98 ERA)
In many ways, Miller is the “sexiest” of the young pitchers the Dodgers have turned to in this horrible season for the starting rotation. His stuff is electric, and he’s been the most consistent young pitcher to start for the team. He’s had a couple of horrible outings (back-to-back in June against the Giants and Astros), but other than that, he’s been pretty solid on the mound. And, better news, he’s trending in the right direction. His ERA in August was 3.21, and it would have been about the same in September were it not for that two-out homer at the end of Miller’s outing in Washington. Plus, he’s faced the Braves twice this year, and dominated both times, giving up just two earned runs in 12.0 innings of work. If Kershaw continues to struggle with command, Miller is a definite Game One starter candidate.
Emmet Sheehan (2023: 46 IP, 3-1, 5.79 ERA)
Sheehan is still a big of an enigma for this team. After coming on like gangbusters in June (2.65 ERA in three starts), he’s kind of faltered at the big league level the rest of the summer. His ERA in July was 8.83 and it’s been over 5.00 since then. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence. Plus, he’s not gone very deep into games, usually coming out before even qualifying for a win. However, he’s had moments of brilliance, most notable his nails start in the third game of the Atlanta series, where he gave up just one run to the powerful Braves lineup, which had roughed up the starters in the two previous games. For me, it’s sort of a coin flip between giving innings to Sheehan or Lance Lynn. We’ll have to see how each pitch going down the stretch.
Ryan Pepiot (2023: 21 IP, 2-0, 0.83 ERA)
I know it’s a small sample size, but Ryan Pepiot might be the best hope for the Dodgers’ postseason in 2023. He has looked absolutely locked in since his return from the long stint on the IL that robbed him of a spot in the Opening Day rotation. His WHIP in 2023 is a ridiculous 0.52. He’s been getting a ton of swing and miss on his changeup, and finally (a big change from last year), he doesn’t have the struggles with command that sometimes plagued him in 2022. If he keeps pitching like this, there is no reason he can’t be given the ball in the postseason. And not in some Mickey Mouse preplanned piggyback situation. Let him go out there, and don’t pull him until he gives you a reason to do so.
Conclusion
To quote Dave Roberts from a couple of days ago, the Dodgers’ pitching situation is “not ideal.” But I think the way through October is clear: lean on Clayton Kershaw and these three rookies to get the bulk of starts in the postseason. Throw Lance Lynn if you have to, but be ready to yank him at a moment’s notice. Have Ryan Yarbrough at the ready to pitch some bulk innings if necessary. And pray. Do a lot of praying.
William Shakespeare famously said, “Some are born into greatness, but others have greatness thrust upon them.” Well, Mr. Miller, Mr. Sheehan, Mr. Pepiot, greatness has been thrust upon you. If you pick it up and run with it, it will be perhaps the most surprising and satisfying October in Dodger history.
The stage awaits…
