Cody Snavely
Entering the 2023/2024 MLB offseason, the Dodgers had a clear problem to address: the starting rotation. In October, the young Arizona Diamondbacks dismantled the Dodgers’ starting rotation and swept them in the NLDS.
In that series, Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and homerun-happy Lance Lynn were not enough to propel the Dodgers on another deep postseason run, as each starter had a collective ERA in the sixties.
With the departure of Lynn as a free agent, Kershaw’s ongoing rehabilitation from shoulder surgery, and Miller entering only his second year in the MLB, the Dodgers found themselves with a lack of depth in their Major League rotation.
However, as we all saw this winter, the Dodgers addressed these issues with the signings of James Paxton and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trading for Tyler Glasnow, who has been the Dodgers ace and one of the best pitchers in the National League up until this point of the season.
Given Glasnow’s history of numerous arm/elbow injuries throughout his career, his role as a key player for the Dodgers raises a crucial question-are the Dodgers potentially overworking their star too early in the season?
Glasnow’s dominating start to 2024
Dodgers starting pitchers had a 4.57 ERA in 2023, which ranked 20th in the majors. They were similarly in the bottom third in the majors in both ERA- and FanGraphs WAR. The Dodgers ranked in the top two and the top three in ERA every year in the previous six seasons.
Entering the 2024 season, the Dodgers starting pitcher ERA now ranks seventh in baseball with a 3.30 ERA in 180 innings. A huge reason for this is due to Tyler Glasnow and the start he is having to kick off the 2024 season.
In 2023, Tyler Glasnow had arguably the best and healthiest season of his career, throwing 120 IP along with 21 starts, 162 strikeouts, and a 3.53 ERA. The 120 innings were the highest in his career up until this point, and they could have been higher if it were not for a Grade 2 strain of his left oblique.
It was the first full year that Glasnow had under his belt after Tommy John Surgery the previous season. However, with Glasnow entering the final year of his extension with the Rays, he ended up being traded to the Dodgers, with the Rays cashing in on his services to acquire young, controllable talent.
Tyler Glasnow was named the Dodgers’ Opening Day starter shortly after a dominant Spring Training. He started both the Korea Series and the domestic series opener for the Dodgers. So far in 2024, Glasnow is off to his best start yet. The 30-year-old right-hander is 6-1 in eight starts with a 2.70 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 152 ERA+, 2.46 FIP, and 63 strikeouts in 50 innings pitched.
The defacto Dodgers ace also ranked in the 99th percentile in Pitching Run Value, 100th percentile in Fastball Run Value, 91st in K%, and 99th in extension due to his tall 6’8″ frame.
In terms of the leaderboard, Glasnow leads all of MLB in innings pitched and strikeouts and is tied for the league in starts with eight.
Are the Dodgers overworking Glasnow?
To some, there is a fear of Glasnow leading the league in innings so early in the season. Those fears are understandable due to the injury history Glasnow has endured throughout his career, and the thought of not having him come October would be a huge issue for the Dodgers.
However, Tyler Glasnow is entering his prime at 30 and is the healthiest he has been in his entire career. He himself stated that he believes his arm injuries are a thing of the past post-TJS.
Everything was good and I feel really good right now; I just wanna stay healthy this year, and make all my starts.
Tyler Glasnow back in February via LA Times
The underlying fact is that while Glasnow is on pace to shatter his previous career-high inning count, he is doing it effectively, averaging 91.5 pitches in his eight starts so far and only going over the century mark once in his shutout performance against the Mets.
Glasnow’s last five starts:
- 7.0 IP, 88 pitches
- 5.0 IP, 94 pitches
- 8.0 IP, 101 pitches
- 6.0 IP, 95 pitches
- 7.0 IP, 96 pitches
Glasnow has ponded the zone-educing weak contract on his off-speed pitches and is raking up plenty of strikeouts with his slider/fastball combo. The Dodgers offense has also put less pressure on his pitches, jumping out to early leads for their starter.
Glasnow’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season has Glasnow projected to finish the season at 153 innings pitched, an uptick of around 30 innings from his preseason projection. The Dodgers, with the return of Walker Buehler and the inevitable return of Bobby Miller, could have a six-arm rotation, and that is not counting rookie Landon Knack, who looked awesome in his short stint with the club.
The Dodgers have been extending starters’ rest days, allowing plenty of recovery between starts. This trend will only get better once more arms return from the IL.
Glasnow is a sigh of relief in a lackluster starting pitching world
There is nothing more impactful to a ballgame than starting pitching, and the Dodgers have lacked a true “ace” since Walker Buehler left in June 2022.
While the team has had Clayton Kershaw in that timeframe as well, it is a breath of fresh air to have a starter go deep into ballgames, especially as efficient as he has been in going through opposing teams’ lineups.
While the advanced numbers look great, it is also exciting for me, as a fan of not only the Dodgers but baseball in general, to see starting pitchers go deep into games, which has been a dying art in recent years.
While Glasnow continues his all-star campaign, fear not, Dodgers fans. The 30-year-old right-handed pitcher looks just fine and will hopefully continue to dominate opposing hitters. He may also add a few pieces of hardware to the shelf.
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