Since breaking into the league, Walker Buehler has been a cornerstone of the Dodgers’ pitching staff. Still, rumors of mutual interest between him and the New York Yankees raise serious questions about his future in Los Angeles. As we analyze Buehler’s career statistics over seven seasons, the Dodgers must weigh his potential upside against his recent struggles and injury history. The question remains: Is retaining Buehler worth the risk, or should the Dodgers let him walk?
Over seven seasons, Walker Buehler has experienced dominance and setbacks, showcasing elite potential at his peak and enduring struggles in recent years.
Walker Buehler’s journey with the Dodgers has been marked by flashes of brilliance and moments of struggle, making his career an intriguing case study. His MLB debut in 2017 was rocky, as he posted a 7.71 ERA over 9.1 innings in a small sample size, giving little indication of the potential he would soon unleash. However, by 2018, Buehler had firmly established himself as one of baseball’s most promising young arms. That season, he put up an impressive 2.62 ERA across 137.1 innings, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting and positioning himself as a future ace.
In 2019, Buehler continued his ascent, recording 14 wins, a 3.26 ERA, and 215 strikeouts over 182.1 innings. He earned his first All-Star appearance and placed ninth in Cy Young voting, solidifying his reputation as one of the league’s best young pitchers. His dominance extended into the postseason, where his ability to deliver in high-pressure games made him invaluable to the Dodgers’ title aspirations.
The shortened 2020 season saw Buehler take a slight step back statistically, but he remained effective, logging a 3.44 ERA and striking out more than ten batters per nine innings over 36.2 innings pitched. The following year, 2021, was the pinnacle of Buehler’s career. He posted a stellar 2.47 ERA over a career-high 207.2 innings, earning another All-Star nod and finishing fourth in Cy Young voting. His 7.1 WAR that season reflected his immense value as a workhorse and an ace.
Unfortunately, injuries began to derail his career after that peak. In 2022, Buehler made only 12 starts before his second Tommy John surgery, finishing the season with a disappointing 4.02 ERA. His absence in 2023 was a significant blow to the Dodgers’ rotation, and his much-anticipated return in 2024 failed to meet expectations. He struggled mightily, posting a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts and allowing a career-high 10.6 hits per nine innings. His strikeout numbers dipped, and his -1.3 WAR reflected a pitcher far from his former self.
While Buehler’s early years showcased elite strikeout ability, pinpoint control, and an ability to dominate in the postseason, his recent struggles raise questions about his long-term viability. After seven seasons, his career tells the story of a pitcher with immense talent but a trajectory complicated by injuries and inconsistency. As the Yankees circle, these highs and lows make it challenging for the Dodgers to determine whether to reinvest in their once-dominant ace.
At his peak, Walker Buehler has been a dominant force in the Dodgers’ rotation, as evidenced by his 2021 season, where he posted a stellar 2.47 ERA over 207.2 innings, earning an All-Star nod and finishing fourth in Cy Young voting. His ability to command the mound in high-pressure situations, particularly in the postseason, has been a hallmark of his career.
Buehler’s 2018-2019 seasons also highlight his ability to perform at a high level, with a combined ERA of 2.94 across nearly 320 innings. His strikeout rates and control during this stretch made him one of the most feared pitchers in the National League. If Buehler can return to anything resembling this form, he could remain a key piece in the Dodgers’ rotation.
The flip side to Buehler’s career is his injury history and recent decline. After undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in 2022, his 2024 return was underwhelming, with a 5.38 ERA and a career-worst -1.3 WAR. His WHIP ballooned to 1.553, and he allowed 10.6 hits per nine innings, raising serious concerns about his ability to return to form.
In addition to his injuries, Buehler’s command has shown signs of slipping, with a sharp decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio and strikeouts per nine innings. At age 29 and with two Tommy John surgeries behind him, it’s fair to wonder if Buehler’s best days are already behind him.
The Yankees’ rumored interest in Buehler makes sense, as their rotation desperately needs top-tier talent. For the Dodgers, however, the decision is far more complex. Retaining Buehler would require significant financial and organizational commitment, with no guarantee of a return to form.
The Dodgers have long been known for their ability to develop pitching talent, and letting Buehler walk could free up resources to pursue healthier and more reliable arms. However, the emotional and symbolic loss of a homegrown ace to the Yankees would undoubtedly sting for the Dodgers and their fans.
Walker Buehler’s career has been a tale of two halves: brilliance in his early years and uncertainty in his later ones. While the Yankees may be willing to take a chance on his upside, the Dodgers must carefully consider whether it’s worth the risk. If Buehler can return to his pre-injury form, he would remain a valuable asset. But if the price tag is too high, the Dodgers might be better served looking elsewhere. As always, the team’s focus must be on sustainability and long-term success, even if that means deciding to let Buehler go.
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