Cody Snavely
Entering the 2023 MLB season, the Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh off a 111-win season and an early postseason exit, opted to stay out of the free agent and trade market and bank on what they already had within the organization.
The team’s strategic moves paid off handsomely. They took a chance on the recently DFA’d Jason Heyward, a move that would see him rejuvenate his career in Dodger Blue. They also made astute trades, bringing back former Dodger Miguel Rojas, who stepped up to a starter role following Gavin Lux‘s ACL injury. And within the organization, they struck gold with James Outman and Bobby Miller, integral parts of the Dodgers’ fourth consecutive 100-win season.
However, there was one player who fell short of expectations during their rookie season, right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone.
Stone, a fifth-round pick and 159th overall in the 2020 MLB Player Draft, showcased his potential with a 9-6 record and a stellar 2.42 ERA in 36 games across three seasons at Central Arkansas. His rapid ascent through the Dodgers’ farm system was a testament to his talent and hard work.
This quick progression allowed Stone to showcase his skills during spring training before the 2023 regular season, where the young right-hander pitched 6.2 scoreless innings.
All of Gavin Stone’s hard work paid off the following weeks, as the Dodgers, battling their own injuries in the starting rotation, called Stone to the Major Leagues.
Stone made his MLB debut on May 5th against the Phillies, tossing four innings, giving up eight hits, four runs, and two walks while striking out one. Stone collected his first strikeout in his debut against Nick Castellanos on three pitches. Still, it was a mediocre afternoon for the young righty, who showcased more potential in the minors.
It would not get much better for Stone during the 2023 season. He would get torn apart in numerous starts, unable to put hitters away as he was a primary two-pitch pitcher at the time.
While his changeup was a signature pitch that put eyes on him through his accent to the majors, he was unable to get the same results at the big league level.
Overall, Stone finished his 2023 campaign going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 31 innings pitched. However, entering the 2023/2024 MLB offseason, Stone was set to work hard on improving himself, and so far, it has paid off for him and the Dodgers.
Hard work paying off in 2024
Gavin Stone was disappointed with his performance at the major league level. He went into the offseason with a goal of making the big league roster and the starting rotation.
During the offseason, Stone revealed that he suffered a blister on his right foot for the first half of the 2023 season, which contributed to some of his struggles and even led to him tipping pitches.
However, those problems are now past him, and his next offseason goal was to gain weight. In an interview with Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic Stone, mentioned that he put on 10-15 pounds this offseason to maintain his weight throughout the long 162-game season.
The added weight gain brought on by “lots of Chipolte” would allow himself to maintain his velocity, and Stone’s adjustments seem to have paid off. During the 2024 Cactus League, his fastball velocity sat around 95-96 mph.
However, despite his improvements, his spot on the rotation and the 26-man roster was not a given as the Dodgers, who were plagued with a lack of pitching depth in 2023, solved that problem by bringing in Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto while also having Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan rounding out the rotation.
Stone was gifted an opportunity when Sheehan was, unfortunately, shut down early in camp, an injury that would ultimately end his 2024 season as he would undergo Tommy John Surgery in May.
Gavin Stone ran away with the new opportunity, going 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in 14.1 innings during Cactus League play, earning a spot as the Dodger’s fifth starter.
Fast-forward to now, and Gavin Stone is one of the Dodgers’ most dependable starters. With Bobby Miller’s return on the horizon, there have been plenty of questions about who will be the odd man out in the rotation, but I am here to say that it will and should not be Gavin Stone.
Stone forced the Dodgers’ hand & now they owe him a spot
To say Gavin Stone improved is an understatement. Entering the 2024 regular season, Stone winning the fifth spot in the rotation was no surprise, as the talent was always there.
With the Sheehan injury and the Dodgers moving right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot to the Rays in the Glasnow trade, the ball was entirely in Gavin’s court, and so far, he’s delivered.
Stone is 5-2 during the season with a 3.16 ERA in 57 innings pitched. However, over his last six starts, he has pitched unbelievable baseball.
Since April 26th, Stone has gone 38 innings, allowing 28 hits, eight earned runs, seven walks, and 25 strikeouts, which is suitable for a 1.89 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP while also going six or more innings each start.
For the entire year, Stone also ranks in the 89th percentile in Pitching Run Value, the 90th Percentile in Average Exit Velocity, and the 88th percentile in Hard Hit percentage. According to Baseball Savant, the pitcher most similar to Stone this year is 2023 Ryan Pepiot, which is slightly ironic.
With all that said, what is the biggest change from 2023 to 2024? Well, the most significant change is the pitch selection that Stone now has to choose from compared to last season.
Last season on the Bleed Los Podcast, I explained why Bobby Miller had more success than Stone. That reason was that, at the time, Miller had a true five-pitch mix while Stone did not.
During the 2023 season, Stone was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, relying on his changeup and fastball most of the time, with a sinker and cutter thrown in a few times.
However, so far in 2024, Stone has a proper six-pitch mix, as highlighted below:
- Changeup- 26%
- Sinker- 24.6%
- 4Seam- 23.9%
- Slider- 12.7%
- Cutter- 8.7%
- Curve- 4.1%
While Stone has not racked up the strikeouts with that mix, it has allowed him to keep hitters off balance and produce weak contact, allowing him to go deeper into games and pitch more efficiently.
Stone, who is still under rookie status due to not having a year of MLB service time yet, is likely to get plenty of Rookie of the Year votes along with fellow teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who you could argue Stone is having a better season than.
When Miller returns, what should the Dodgers do?
Andrew Freidman and the Dodgers had already had to answer one controversial roster crunch when Jason Heyward was activated off the 10-day IL, and they opted to send down James Outman in the process.
However, the following significant discussion will arise when Bobby Miller finishes his rehab assignment, and all indications point to an early June return.
The Dodgers could option Gavin Stone since he has the ability to be optioned to the minor leagues out of all the arms in the starting rotation, but doing that would be folly.
The next logical option would be to go with a six-man rotation, which Dave Roberts has stated they are open to, but the idea of losing a relief pitcher needs to sit better in their stomach.
If the Dodgers were to use a six-man rotation, it would allow each starter to get extra rest and could ease the work on the bullpen, which currently has the third-ranked ERA in Major League Baseball.
Possible Six-Man Rotation
- Tyler Glasnow
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- James Paxton
- Gavin Stone
- Walker Buehler
- Bobby Miller
The next option would be to place one of their starters on the injured list, and the most likely could be veteran left-handed pitcher James Paxton.
Paxton only went three innings on fifty pitches in his most recent start against the New York Mets, which he stated was the plan as it was his first start all season on four days’ rest.
While Paxton has gotten the job done and remains undefeated on the young season with a 3.29 ERA, he has struggled with velocity and command, which has been problematic for the Dodgers’ coaching staff.
Final thoughts
The Dodgers have options in the pitching department, and the activation of Bobby Miller is not the last arm to be activated this summer. However, Gavin Stone has shown that he belongs in the big leagues and has been one of the Dodger’s most dependable starters, which makes me believe moving on from him so early due to a more rose crunch would be a disservice to the young righty.
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