Cody Snavely
The Los Angeles Dodgers entered yesterday’s game riding a five-game winning streak after sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend and taking the first two games of this crucial four-game series against the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
However, those good feelings quickly disappeared as a dose of reality set in: The old Walker Buehler is long gone, and the current one is a shell of himself after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries and is helping you actively lose more games.
The Dodgers, who have been thin on starting pitching depth for the last two seasons, in large part due to injuries, were counting on Buehler to be a stable part of the rotation. However, the former anchor of the rotation should have thrown his last pitch for the 2024 season.
On this day two years ago, the Los Angeles Dodgers officially announced that right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler would miss the rest of the 2022 season, undergoing his second career Tommy John surgery.
Buehler would also miss the entire 2023 season while recovering from the surgery. Despite trying to make a late-season comeback attempt to help the Boys in Blue in October, he and the Dodgers decided it was best to shut things down and prepare for the 2024 regular season.
Buehler entered camp in February ready to go, but the Dodgers opted to delay the right-hander’s debut until May. He did not make a single appearance during Cactus League action and made his 2024 regular season debut after a lengthy rehab assignment.
After eight starts with mixed results, the Dodgers decided to place Buehler on the 15-day injured list due to right hip discomfort in June and remained optimistic that he would figure out whatever was ailing him.
However, despite a near-month hiatus from the team, during which Buehler decided to return home and train at a private pitching facility in Florida, along with several mechanical adjustments, results have yet to be yielded.
All in all, Buehler currently has one win and four losses with a 5.58 ERA, 1.562 WHIP, and 6.30 FIP while also posting career lows in H/9 (10.9), HR/9 (2.5), BB/9 (3.1), and K/9 (7.6). Suppose you look at Buheler’s Baseball Savant page. In that case, it gets more alarming as the righty ranks in the 4th percentile in Pitching Run Value, 21st in Fastball Run Value, and 5th in Breaking Run Value while also having an 18.2 BB% and a career-worst .409 BABIP.
The results were no less satisfying in his minor league rehab games. Collectively, in both stints in the minor leagues, Buehler went 0-4 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 11.0 H/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 9.2 K/9.
Buehler returned in yesterday’s loss and struggled out the gate despite the Dodgers giving him a solid three-run lead. Buehler would walk the first three batters of the game, loading the bases, and if it weren’t for a terrific catch and throw by Kevin Kiermaier, it would not have been a scoreless frame.
Buehler pitched three and a third innings, allowing four runs (one earned) and three hits while also issuing four walks on eighty-seven pitches. While the Dodgers defense did him no favors, having three errors on the day, the glaring issue with Buehler has been his command, which is shown in his high walk rate and 1.562 WHIP in forty innings.
The consequence of a high pitch count and walk rate is that, as a starter, you are not doing your job and going deep into games. Buehler has only pitched into the sixth inning three times this season, so the bullpen is left to eat up the work.
The Dodgers bullpen, which still ranks highly among the National League best, has hit a wall since mid-July. This is largely attributed to the injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and their starters not going deeper into games.
Since July 15th, the Dodgers bullpen, in terms of the National League, has the third worst ERA (.487), third worst FIP (4.70), third worst BIPwins (-0.8), worst BABIP (.327), all while pitching the fourth most in the league at 146 innings in that span.
While the arrival of right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty should help along with the return of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and eventual return Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Buehler’s actions will not help the team in the long run.
Many fans, including myself, view left-handed pitcher Justin Wrobleski and right-handed pitcher Landon Knack as better options in the rotation. Before River Ryan‘s season ended due to a strained UCL, you could argue he deserved a spot over Buehler, too.
In four starts for Los Angeles, Wrobleski pitched to a 4.05 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and was getting better each start. His best start was against the Houston Astros, when the lefty pitched into the sixth inning, holding the lead until the Dodgers bullpen coughed it up.
Landon Knack has also been a huge piece for the Dodgers to count on throughout the season. Knack, who was recalled after River Ryan was placed on the 15-day injured list, pitched four innings on Tuesday in relief, picking up his first career save. He is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .200 BAA in forty-eight innings this season.
To make matters worse for the Dodgers and Buehler, their once near double-digit lead, held for most of the season, has shrunk to just two and a half games entering today. The Dodgers are in the midst of a division race this late into a season for the first time since 2021.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been hot, finally getting healthy. Despite the loss of Christian Walker, they have had one of the league’s best offenses since mid-July. Over their next forty-one games, they have the ninth hardest schedule (.508) and have a 5-4 record vs. the Dodgers this season with four games remaining between the two.
Compared to the Padres, who have also been hot, the Friars have the fifth easiest schedule (.488) and have dominated the Dodgers this season. They have won seven of their ten meetings so far, with a lone three-game set remaining in September. The Padres also have the tiebreaker, meaning their 2.5-game lead is technically 1.5.
The Dodgers’ next forty games include twenty against teams over .500, a series against the Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, and Kansas City Royals, and two series against the Padres and Diamondbacks.
In short, the Dodgers cannot afford to take the “wait and see” approach with Buehler. They have to win and win now if they want to win another National League West title and keep pace for a top-two seed in the National League.
If the team does move on from Buehler, it has three options. Option A is to Phantom IL him and keep him off the active roster since he is out of minor league options. Option B is to place Buehler on Waivers, hoping a team claims him for their stretch run or to eat innings while also taking on his remaining salary. Option C is to just DFA and release him, but given the Dodgers’ respect for their veterans, this is the least likely scenario.
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