Cody Snavely
With the NLCS getting underway and we are a few days removed after the Dodger’s unfortunate sweep at the hands of the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks, LA is left with more questions than answers as we prepare to head into the 2024 offseason. However, like last year, the most significant question is whether Kershaw will be back next year or playing.
2023 season breakdown
Before July, Clayton Kershaw was arguably off to the best start of a season in quite some time, leading the Dodgers in innings, strikeouts, and wins. However, in terms of the league, Kershaw was also making a name for himself to start his 2nd career all-star game, perhaps, as it seemed that he turned back the clock in 2023. In the first half, Kershaw had started all 16 games pitching 95.1 innings, had 105 SO, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.38. Kershaw seemed healthy and was the Dodgers ace yet again at a time when they needed him to be with Julio Urías and Noah Syndergaard struggling, and Dustin May out for the year with an injury to his elbow. Kershaw, along with Bobby Miller, were their two best starters.
However, as has been the case since 2016, the injury bug side-lined Kershaw for a considerable chunk of the season, and instead of his back or forearm this time, it was a shoulder injury that took him out of the Dodgers rotation for most of the summer. The Dodgers and Kershaw would take their time, hoping that the shoulder just needed rest and the Dodgers, who at the time were rolling away with the NL West, were not desperate for Kershaw to return. Once he did return in September, Kershaw had a noticeable dip in velocity and command, which many noticed, but as we all know, Kershaw continued to reassure us that he was “healthy.”
Kershaw was not the same pitcher he was at the beginning of the year. He was throwing fewer pitches, fewer strikeouts, and was taking extended days off before starts. The writing was on the walls come October, and yet the Dodgers decided to ride it out with Kershaw in the NLDS game one, and well, we all know how that went. With the season over now, we wait on what the lefty wants to do moving forward, as he explained post-game that he would need time to think.
Scenario one: Dodgers/Rangers ink Kershaw to a one-year deal
Kershaw has a lot to think about this offseason for a pitcher who is going into his age 36 year on the cusp of testing the market again after an overall good season. However, Kershaw has been very adamant that he would continue signing one-year deals with LA or possibly return home to Texas to play for his hometown Rangers. In this scenario, after more tests, Kershaw’s shoulder is nothing severe but needs much-needed rest after a long season.
This would likely prompt both the Rangers and Dodgers to be interested because even at his age, a one-year, 20-million-dollar contract is a bargain for a team. If this is the case, I do find it very hard that the Dodgers will let Kershaw walk as they are as desperate for starting pitching more than anyone. But if he does not end up back in LA, it would likely be a case of Andrew Friedman and company moving on as they have done with other key players such as Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Cody Bellinger. Although I find it more likely that Kershaw would rather retire if he cannot agree with the Dodgers, we do not honestly know.
Scenario two: Dodgers ink Kershaw to a two-year deal, and he gets shoulder surgery
Okay, now things get a little complicated for all parties involved. If Kershaw’s shoulder is more severe than he and the Dodgers let on, and he needs surgery but he still wants to play, I could see him and the Dodgers coming to an agreement on a two-year deal that would allow him to have the surgery, rehab, and then come back in 2025 for one last ride. However, the Dodgers could also be very cautious about the idea of bringing back an aging veteran whose surgery could be career-ending if he does not recover well. Also, with the Dodgers having their massive problem with injured starters for the 2024 season, with names mentioned already in Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and a freshly recovered Walker Buehler, it gets harder to see the Dodgers taking that high of a risk even for someone like Kershaw.
Scenario three: Clayton Kershaw retires
Now more than ever, the idea of Kershaw retiring from the game of baseball feels more real than it did a year ago. The Dodgers lefty, who has played his entire 16-year career in Dodger Blue until now, has a chance to walk away. The health of Kershaw has been a central topic for the Dodgers since 2016, when his back, forearm, and now shoulder have all limited his ability to be at the elite level that he was once at.
Kershaw has continued to ride through the pain and adversity, but if these most recent years come in October, it seems his body is gassed or no longer has it. After the 6-run first inning, where Kershaw could only record one out, it seemed like Kershaw could perhaps be done. When asked by other Dodgers beat writers about his future, he has stated he is “unsure” or “undecided,” unlike last year, he would take a few weeks or months to decide if he was indeed coming back for the 2024 season.
However, Kershaw is the type of athlete who would not go off into the sunset on a disastrous outing, which is why I believe he will be back next year, but I am uncertain if it will be with the Dodgers. Kershaw, when healthy, has shown that he is still one of the best starters in the league, and with numerous milestones left to accomplish within reach, like 3000 career strikeouts, I think it is a no-brainer he will be back competing next year for who though is the real question.
