TORONTO — Oh Lawdy! What a game. It was one of those “you couldn’t script it because nobody would believe it” moments. A ball off the bat of Addison Barger goes over the head of centerfielder Justin Dean and lodges (yes, lodges) between the outfield fence padding and the warning track dirt. Left fielder Kiké Hernández and Dean both throw up their hands, in expectation that the ball will be called dead. Which is exactly what happened. The hit was ruled a ground-rule double and the speedy Myles Straw was sent back to third, where he was stranded after another series of unfortunate events for the Blue Jays. The Dodgers won the game and shortly thereafter, the whining started.
There was talk of a conspiracy from disgruntled fans as they exited Rogers Centre. That MLB wants the Dodgers to win because they’ll make more money that way. That the umps were in on the fix and were doing all in the power to stop the plucky little Jays from toppling the mighty Dodgers. Or simply, that the umpires had missed the call, and that the ball should have been live.
“It wasn’t lodged in the wall,” said the Jays’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa after the game. “I saw it. He got lucky they called it his way. You think of a tennis being stuck in a fence. It doesn’t move. It just sits there. That’s not what happened here. That ball was moving. Really, he got the call. But I don’t know if he deserved it.”
Okay, slow your roll, Alex Jones. The play was called exactly as it should have been. And even if the call was botched (which it wasn’t), it had less impact on the game than some overly hopeful Jays fans think. Let me explain.
First let’s start with the rulebook: “Per rule 5.05 (a) (7), a ball is considered lodged if, in the judgment of the umpire, the natural trajectory of the flight of the ball is interrupted long enough to affect further play. A batted ball that sticks in a fence, scoreboard, shrubbery or vines located on the playing field should be considered a lodged ball. Likewise, a ball that goes behind a field tarp or wall padding without leaving the playing field should also be considered to be lodged. Also, a lodged ball occurs anytime the momentum of a rolling ball is stopped abruptly and sticks or is stuck under the fence padding, shrubbery etc. Runners are awarded two bases when it is rules that the ball is lodged,” Baseball Rules Academy wrote. “How easily a ball might be retrieved by the fielder should not factor in the decision as to whether or not to declare a ball as lodged.”
Look at the sections I’ve put in bold. The ball in question checks both boxes. Was the flight interrupted long enough to affect further play? Absolutely. You could see Justin Dean, who knows his way around an outfield, setting up to field a bounce off the fence that never came. The ball just stayed there, and critical moments were lost, allowing the runners to speed around the bases. Would it have been easy to retrieve the ball and throw it in? Of course, but who cares? That is not what the rules clearly state. The ease of retrieval is completely irrelevant as to whether or not the ball is dead.
What Kiner-Falefa is saying about it only being under the padding for a second, I have no idea. The ball was clearly lodged between the pad and the dirt. And the left field umpire made exactly the right call. Did the Jays get robbed out of a run? I wouldn’t say robbed. I would say that’s the way the ball bounces. Or this case, doesn’t bounce. But this is par for the course when a ground rule double is called. How many times have we seen the same scenario play out. A dude on first, a double bounces into the stands, and the lead runner who would have easily scored is sent back to third. After which the announcers would say, “Boy, Team X really caught a break there.”
And that’s what exactly happened in the ninth. The Dodgers caught a break. No more, no less. The Jays still had men and second and third with nobody out. That’s good for 2.03 runs according to Fan Graphs run expectancy matrix. So Jays fans, your beef is misplaced. Your team still had plenty of chances to win the game and didn’t. That it turned on you just three pitches later is something you might want to take up with YOUR team.
In addition, let’s just lose the “umps are against us” narrative. If you look at the umpire scorecard from Friday night, it was the JAYS who were the beneficiaries of the missed calls at the plate, including a crititical third strike on Vladdy Jr. from Roki Sasaki in the eighth that was never called, costing Sasaki critical pitches and momentum.
Okay, let’s say for the sake of argument that the call was botched and Straw’s run should have counted. Okay, you’re still down by a run. Yes, the tying run is in scoring position, but if you bunt him to third, you’re not helping yourself that much. A runner at third with one out, the run expectancy is 0.86, which means the run is more likely to not score than to score. If they let Gimenez hit away? Well, you’re better off, but not by much. Run expectancy is 1.12 with a runner at second and nobody out. And that’s the average player against the average pitcher. Not Andres Gimenez (2025 OPS+ of 66) against an elite pitcher like Tyler Glasnow.
So could the Jays have won the game if the call went their way? Yeah, but that is rewriting what actually happened on the field. A lot of things could have happened. What actually happened was weird, wacky, and completely out of nowhere. But it was also what happened. The umps got this one right. And it’s not even close.
Now, I’m sure most Toronto fans, who know ball, realize that it was just a bad break, even if it is a bitter pill to swallow. The loudest voices always get amplified on social media. Here’s hoping whatever happens in Game 7, win or lose, it won’t require careful consultation of the rulebook to decide the game.
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