Cody Snavely
During the 2023/2024 MLB offseason, the Dodgers made a series of significant moves, creating an offseason that will be remembered for years to come. The team’s roster was bolstered with the addition of star players like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, all in a bid to reclaim the World Series Championship, a title they last held in 2020.
However, one move that went under the radar was signing right-handed slugger Teoscar Hernández to a 1-year $23.5 million deal with $8.5 million deferred from 2030 to 2039.
Hernández went into the offseason on a down year in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 with an OPS of .741 and an OPS+ of 106. However, many numbers could be attributed to the pitching-friendly T-Mobile park.
Despite the down year, Hernández still was looking for a multi-year offer, but only the Boston Red Sox were remotely interested in that idea but opted to continue looking on the market until the Dodgers entered the fray.
Los Angeles, which had shown interest early in the offseason, struck at the perfect moment to acquire their corner outfielder in 2024 and sign him under the 2024 qualifying offer amount.
Considering the strong start Hernández has had in Dodger Blue, it’s worth asking: should the team be considering an extension for him, and would that decision make sense in the context of the team’s overall strategy?
Hernández bet on himself and so far is winning
As mentioned Hernández did not get the multi-year offer that he was hoping to receive last offseason, instead settling to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
With a move that could be seen as a bold bet on his own abilities, Hernández is now reaping the potential rewards for the upcoming offseason. His recent performance, earning him the title of National League Player of the Week, has been nothing short of exceptional, setting the stage for an exciting 2024.
So far this season, Hernández is hitting .266/.336/.525 with a .861 OPS and 142 OPS+. Hernández also has smashed seventeen home runs, fifty RBIs, and sixty-nine hits despite striking out eighty-one times this season. Hernández also leads the Dodgers in home runs and RBI, beating out the $700 million man Shohei Ohtani so far.
A trip down Hernández’s Baseball Savant page shows how electric he has been this season. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in xwOBA, 92nd in xSLG, 94th in barrel percentage, 91st in hard-hit percentage, and 97th in arm value on defense.
One of the standout aspects of Hernández’s performance this season is his seamless transition to the fifth spot in the Dodgers’ order, a crucial role he stepped into due to the loss of Max Muncy.
Over the last twenty games, Hernández has a batting average of .320 with twenty-four hits, six home runs, thirteen RBIs, and eleven runs scored.
Hernández, who leads the team in RBI, has made the most of his opportunities with runners-in-scoring position, hitting .217/309/.482 with an OPS+ of 112.
So far this season, Hernández has showcased his bat and provided the Dodgers with clutch hitting and above-average defense in the outfield. But will the Dodgers be the team to reward the career .261/.318/.489 hitter with a twenty-nine percent strikeout rate?
Hernández can be the bridge to Josue De Paula
Hernández, 31, is in the midst of his sixth big league year with a 6.097 MLB service time. A massive reason why Hernández wanted a multi-year deal was not only the added level of job security but also to reach the ten-year mark in Major League Baseball service time, which is a big deal for players as you get added benefits to reaching the milestone.
If Hernández is still determined to reach this milestone, a potential solution could be a three-year deal with a mutual option for a fourth year. This arrangement could serve as a win-win, allowing Hernández to secure his tenure and the Dodgers to retain a valuable player.
A possible four-year deal makes sense for the Dodgers, who could have Hernández hold down the corner outfield spot until their number two ranked prospect, Josue De Paula, is ready to make his MLB debut, which MLB Pipeline predicts to be the 2026 season.
According to MLB.com, De Paula, 19, is the 80th-ranked prospect is hitting .260/.377/.450 with a .827 OPS this season with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.
The scouting grades for De Paula are off the charts for a player his age:
- Hit: 60
- Power: 55
- Run: 45
- Arm: 50
- Field: 40
- Overall: 55
If the Dodgers do not trade De Paula by this trade deadline, selling to extend/re-sign Hernández now is not a complex idea, especially since he has expressed interest in remaining with the Dodgers per Willaim Ladson.
I want to stay. I don’t want to keep bouncing around the league. I feel good here, comfortable. I think this is a good chance for me to win. That is the most important thing for me. I would love to stay.
Teoscar Hernández on his future
If the Dodgers and Teoscar Hernández can come to an agreement on a contract extension or if they opt to re-sign him once the 2024 offseason begins it would be a mutually beneficial pairing as Hernández gets to the year service time and also allows De Paula to develop and make his debut at around the end of the potential contract.
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