Alvin Garcia
Brent Honeywell’s non-tender by the Los Angeles Dodgers might have surprised some, especially given his improved 2024 ERA of 2.63. While his surface-level stats appeared promising, Honeywell’s underlying numbers and trends revealed significant concerns that likely led the organization to cut ties.
During my guest appearance on the Bleed Los Podcast, we discussed the Dodgers’ decision to non-tender Brent Honeywell, which may spark some debate. While I touched on his mechanics and pitch usage, I struggled to fully articulate why the decision, though surprising to some, wasn’t shocking to me. Honeywell’s traditional stats didn’t tell the whole story. I didn’t delve deeply into his Statcast metrics, which reveal declining swing-and-miss rates, elevated hard-hit percentages, and inconsistent command. Reflecting on the discussion, it became clear that these underlying issues likely played a significant role in the Dodgers’ decision to part ways with him.
On paper, Honeywell’s 2024 campaign looked like a significant step forward compared to his 2023 performance. His ERA dropped from 4.82 to 2.63, and his walk rate improved from 10.2% to 8.0%. At first glance, these changes seem to indicate progress. But the Dodgers, always data-driven, likely saw red flags hidden beneath these surface numbers.
One of the most glaring issues with Honeywell’s performance lies in the quality of contact he allowed. Despite a drop in his average exit velocity from 90.9 mph in 2023 to 88.3 mph in 2024, Honeywell still ranked poorly in terms of hard-hit rate, which stood at 39.8%—significantly above the league average. Even more concerning, his barrel percentage of 5.1% was only a modest improvement over 2023’s 8.1%, and both figures indicate a tendency to give up damaging contact.
Additionally, Honeywell struggled to generate swings and misses. His whiff rate plummeted from 24.0% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2024, and his strikeout rate sharply declined from 19.1% to 12.0%. These numbers suggest that hitters were making more frequent and solid contact, neutralizing the effectiveness of his pitches.
Honeywell’s six-pitch arsenal is headlined by his four-seam fastball and signature screwball, but neither pitch proved consistently effective. His fastball, despite maintaining solid velocity around 94.7 mph, had a high expected batting average (.283) and expected slugging percentage (.405). The pitch’s lack of vertical or horizontal movement likely contributed to its underwhelming results.
His screwball once considered a unique weapon, also underperformed in 2024. Opponents posted a .321 batting average against the pitch, and its hard-hit rate of 50% underscored its ineffectiveness. While his slider showed promise with a .161 opponent batting average, Honeywell used it sparingly, relying on his less effective fastball and screwball for the majority of his outings.
Another area of concern for Honeywell was his command. Although his walk rate improved slightly in 2024, his first-pitch strike percentage of 60.7%—better than 2023—still lagged behind league averages. Honeywell also struggled to consistently hit the strike zone’s edges, leaving pitches in hittable areas and contributing to his elevated hard-hit rate.
Honeywell’s profile may have presented too many risks for a team like the Dodgers, which prioritizes data and long-term sustainability. His inability to generate swings and misses and his tendency to allow hard contact likely outweighed the perceived improvements in his traditional stats. Furthermore, with a deep pipeline of pitching talent and a focus on maximizing efficiency, the Dodgers may have decided that Honeywell’s ceiling no longer aligned with their championship aspirations.
Brent Honeywell’s non-tender wasn’t a reflection of a lack of talent but rather a calculated decision by a front office that relies heavily on analytics. While his 2024 season showed signs of improvement on the surface, the underlying metrics told a different story. For Honeywell, the door remains open to prove himself elsewhere, but moving on from a pitcher with declining effectiveness and concerning trends was likely the right call for the Dodgers.
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