Steve Webb
LOS ANGELES, CA — On paper, the Dodgers’ brain trust making the decision to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto against the San Diego Padres in Game 5 makes no sense whatsoever. The numbers, and even the Dodgers’ previous actions, scream to start Jack Flaherty. And yet, here we are. So, most Dodger fans are waking up with one overriding thought this morning.
This damn well better work.
First let’s look at the numbers, which certainly don’t argue for his inclusion. He has made three starts against the Padres, none of them particularly impressive. First, there was the disaster in the Korea series, where he lasted just one innning and gave up four hits and five earned runs in just one inning of work. Okay, let’s say you write that one off as the nervous debut of a young pitcher in the MLB. Fair enough, let’s look at his next start against the Padres: 5.0 IP, 3 ER in April. Better, but not great. Finally, there was Game 1 of the NLDS, a game in which the Dodgers came back to win: 3.0 IP, 5 H, 5 ER. Yuck. So, with his three starts against the Padres, you get these numbers: 9.0 IP, 13 H, 13 ER. You don’t have to be a whiz at math to see that those numbers pencil out to a 13.00 ERA. And he’s the guy we’re starting. In an elimination game.
The template for this might be Yamamoto’s performance for the Orix Buffaloes in the Japan Series of 2023, where he made two very different starts against the Hanshin Tigers. In Game 1 of the series, played last October, Yamamoto had a career-worst start in Japan: seven earned runs in 5.2 innings. He was absolutely rocked in what turned out to be a 8-0 loss to Hanshin. Then, just a few days later, Yoshi threw 138 pitches in a complete game for Orix, striking out 14 Tigers and setting a record for strikeouts in a Japan Series game. The only run he allowed came via our old friend Sheldon Neuse’s solo home run in the second inning. It was a nine-inning complete game performance in which Yamamoto worked around a bit of traffic (nine hits in the game), but didn’t allow a single runner to score after that Neuse homer. Of course, the Dodgers have no expectation of Yamamoto going anywhere close to 138 pitches and nine innnings in this one. However, if they get just one time through the lineup with one run surrendered, I think most Dodger fans would take that start in a heartbeat.
The key to this game, like most in this series, will come early. This year, Yamamoto has been a very bad pitcher in the first inning. For the season across eighteen starts, his opening-frame ERA is 6.00. Which might argue for employeeing an opener to navigate Arraez, Tatis, Profar, and Machado the first time through and allow Yoshi to settle in against the back half of the lineup in the second innning. However, for whatever reason, Roberts and Prior have decided against that. This puts the team in a high-risk, high-reward situation. If Yamamoto can get the top of the lineup out the first time around, that leaves all the team’s high leverage guys to face them in subsequent at-bats, figuring each would come to the plate three or four more times in the game. However, if the plan blows up in the Dodgers’ faces, and Yamamoto gets hit around in that first inning, it might put the team in a hole that they may never climb out of. As the last start against Yu Darvish showed, runs might very well be hard to come by in Game 5, and any lead that the Padres might amass in the early innings might just stand up for the rest of the ballgame.
So get ready, Saturday-morning quarterbacks. Either you’re going to praise Dave Roberts as a tactical genuis or you’re going to be calling for his head on a platter for starting somebody with such a sketchy track record against an opponent.
So, Yamamoto’s going to start against the Padres. It’s an idea that’s so crazy, it just might work.
Have you subscribed to the Bleed Los Podcast YouTube channel? Be sure to ring the notification bell to watch player interviews, participate in shows & promotions, and stay up to date on all Dodgers news and rumors!
