Cody Snavely
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2023 rotation was a disappointment compared to previous seasons.
Not only was it the highest collective ERA that the team has had in the Andrew Friedman era, but it was also riddled with injuries that eventually ended the Dodgers season.
Dodgers starting pitchers had a 4.57 ERA in 2023, which ranked 20th in the majors. They were similarly in the bottom third in the majors in both ERA- and FanGraphs WAR. The Dodgers ranked in the top two and the top three in ERA every year in the previous six seasons.
While there were some bright spots, such as the emergence of Bobby Miller, who made his debut in May, or Kershaw’s superb first half, there were also some low points.
The Noah Syndergaard experiment failed, which led the Dodgers to ship the former right-handed flame thrower and his disastrous 7.16 ERA to Cleveland.
The Dodgers’ lack of starters in October was the Achilles’ heel, where the starters posted a collective ERA of 63.90 in 4.2 innings.
Hence, the Dodgers went into the Winter intending to revamp the starting rotation for the 2024 season, and in short, they accomplished just that. So, what can we expect from the Dodgers’ high-end starters in 2024?
New Japanese Ace comes to LA
While Shohei Ohtani was the Dodgers’ biggest free agent acquisition this Winter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a very close second.
Shortly after Ohtani signed his massive 10-year $700 million contract, the Dodgers inked Yamamoto to the largest deal for a starting pitcher in MLB history.
Yamamoto and the Dodgers agreed on a 12-year $325 million contract, surpassing Yankees Gerrit Cole‘s deal of 9-year $324 million. It’s shocking to many as Yamamoto has yet to throw an MLB pitch.
However, in Japan, Yamamoto was among the best starting pitchers in NPB history. In seven seasons in NPB, this righty has posted a gaudy 1.82 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in just under 1,000 innings pitched. He has already made five All-Star teams, tossed four no-hitters, won three Japanese Triple Crowns, two Sawamura Awards (NPB’s Cy Young), and two MVPs.
The Dodgers expect Yamamoto to translate well to the MLB based on the contract and what players and coaches have already seen so far this Spring.
Yamamoto, who made his Cactus League debut this past week, finally got to show off his stuff going two innings: 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 Ks, 19 pitches (15 strikes). Yamamoto sat 94-96 mph with his fastball and got whiffs on the curveball and splitter.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has also alluded that Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow will be a “safe bet” to start the two-game series in Korea, which begins March 20th.
Per FanGraphs, Yamamoto is projected to start 29 games this season with a 3.80 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 3.8 WAR in 188 innings. However, Yamamoto can exceed most projections if the stuff translates early.
Former Ray migrates West
Yoshinobu Yamamoto wasn’t the only star pitcher the Dodgers acquired this offseason, as they also traded for Tyler Glasnow from the Tampa Bay Rays.
After the Dodgers shocked the baseball world by signing Ohtani to a massive contract, they moved their attention to the starting pitching market.
Glasnow, rumored to be shopped by the Rays as they attempted to shred payroll in early November, was easily the top pitcher available in the trade market.
In 2023, Glasnow had his best and healthiest season yet, throwing 120 IP along with 21 starts, 162 strikeouts, and a 3.53 ERA.
The biggest concern for Glasnow is his health, as throughout his career, he has struggled with arm and elbow injuries, along with an oblique injury at the start of 2023.
However, Glasnow believes all the trouble is behind him regarding arm health. Glasnow explained that he experienced elbow pain in the 2019 season, and while multiple MRIs with the team showed no damage or tear, he still felt the pain.
During the 2021 season, Glasnow could no longer take the pain and decided to undergo surgery, where, to the doctor’s and his surprise, they saw that the UCL was not torn but not attached.
The Dodgers must also feel very confident in Glasnow and his health, as the trade to LA was contingent on Glasnow signing a five-year, $135 million contract. The total deal could reach $145M if the Dodgers exercise a $30M club option in year five.
However, the only downside to Glasnow besides health risk is his hard hit percentage, which, looking at his Baseball Savant page, is understandable as Glasnow is one of the hardest throwers in the league.
Per FanGraphs, Tyler Glasnow is projected to start 26 games, posting an ERA of 3.52, 3.52 FIP, and 3.3 WAR in 147 innings.
For the Dodgers, expectations for Glasnow beating the previous career high of 120 innings is the logical next step in his progression. However, The Dodgers will monitor his workload as they want him fully healthy come October.
The sophomore season for Miller Time
One of the lone bright spots for the 2023 Dodgers rotation was the emergence of Bobby Miller.
Miller, 24, the 29th overall pick in the 2020 MLB player draft from the Louisville Cardinals, quickly rose through the minor leagues.
In 2022, Dodgers fans got their first taste of Miller, who started one of the final exhibition games against the Angels, striking out current teammate Shohei Ohtani.
Miller, who was shut down at the start of Spring Training due to workload management, would make his Major League debut months later in May against the Atlanta Braves.
In his debut, he picked up the win, allowing one run on four hits and one walk with five strikeouts. His first MLB strikeout was against Sam Hilliard. He remained in the starting rotation the rest of the season, making 22 starts, with an 11–4 record, 3.76 ERA, and 119 strikeouts.
One of the reasons Miller translated to the MLB so fast was the five-pitch mix that allowed him to work around some of the league’s best hitters. However, Miller can light up anyone due to his velocity and 2-seam/sinker.
Entering the 2024 season, Miller is slotted to be the Dodger’s third starter. With the delayed start to Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers hope Miller takes the next step in his career, solidifying his status as a future ace.
Per FanGraphs, Miller is projected to pitch 26 games with a 3.88 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 2.6 WAR in 144 innings. Bobby Miller pitched the most innings of his professional career last season, so the Dodgers could slowplay him to start 2024.
Unlike last season, the Dodgers will not have to depend so heavily on Miller as the Glasnow, Yamamomot, and Buehler reinforcements in May will lessen the blow.
DODGERSBEAT GRADE: B+
Looking at the Dodgers’ top three starters for the rotation, I was very tempted to rank it as an A. However, the combination of Glasgow’s health, Yamamoto coming to the US, and Miller entering just his second year shows some concerns.
However, by season end, this Dodgers’ top three will be among the league’s best or perhaps the best in 2024.
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